Who will reach 100 wins (2025 version)?

[tobydawq]

As discussed in the other thread on this subject, it's time for a new thread with new poll options.

The number in brackets is the win tally as of the date of the OP.

I have picked the ten riders I felt made the most sense to include. Has-been sprinters like Groenewegen (77) and Sam Bennett (71) who have very high tallys are not included because they've stalled and in my expectation will stall further, and they're quite a bit farther away than Viviani, Kristoff and Démare were when they showed similar stalling.

Roglic, Remco, Merlier, Pedersen, Philipsen and Kooij were obvious inclusions.

Van der Poel is still too good to not include in this poll (whether to vote for him is another matter), while Van Aert's (51) best days seem to be firmly behind him, unfortunately.

A few months ago, I would have been amazed to see me include De Lie but then the last few months happened. The same can be said for Magnier who might be at 24 by the end of the week. If that happens he will have won 15 times in 5 weeks. That's utterly absurd and such a trend is impossible to ignore. And you could argue that it would have been better to wait with the thread until Sunday, but I had the time now, so I hope you can live with that.

I didn't include Del Toro (18) or Brennan (12) because I hope Del Toro will be given a tougher schedule in the future and is still not that high up whereas Brennan has too few wins yet for me to include him. I bet he'll be included next year, though. Instead I went for Milan but his last few months have not exactly been encouraging. He is one of the two fastest sprinters, though, but did not rack up the wins as effectively as he would have hoped this season.

Here you can see the full and almost always updated list (they only have Magnier on 20 at the time of writing, so apparently they don't update it automatically):

Which active rider has the most victories?

Tadej PogaÄar has the most victories of all active riders with 108 victories, before Alexander Kristoff (98) and Arnaud Démare (97).

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[Jan the Man]

I voted Remco (for sure), Philipsen (less convinced of) and Kooij (pretty sure of). Maginer is too soon to tell in my view same as Brennan. If they focus purely on WT their win rates will decrease

 

[JRanton]

I went with Remco, Kooij and Magnier.

 

[Netserk]

Groenewegen is more likely to make it than Van der Poel.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

We're in a bit of a weird situation where Evenepoel has a >90% shot, Van der Poel has a <10% shot (and doesn't really belong here, IMO - Brennan and to a lesser extent Del Toro were better options), and everyone else is somewhere between 10% and 40%. So even though that means the median scenario is that two, maybe even three of the listed riders make it, I only cast a single vote. Brennan is arguably the second-likeliest current pro in my book, which made the decision to not vote for a second rider easier for me.

As for Kooij - precisely zero sprinters who were never one of the three fastest riders in the world have ever made it. I guess you could argue that Démare almost did, but I would counter that by saying that Démare was, in fact, one of the three fastest riders in the world in 2020 and even then his score is the current ceiling for sprinters who were never top dog.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Kooij and Remco.

 

[tobydawq]

We're in a bit of a weird situation where Evenepoel has a >90% shot, Van der Poel has a <10% shot (and doesn't really belong here, IMO - Brennan and to a lesser extent Del Toro were better options), and everyone else is somewhere between 10% and 40%. So even though that means the median scenario is that two, maybe even three of the listed riders make it, I only cast a single vote. Brennan is arguably the second-likeliest current pro in my book, which made the decision to not vote for a second rider easier for me.

As for Kooij - precisely zero sprinters who were never one of the three fastest riders in the world have ever made it. I guess you could argue that Démare almost did, but I would counter that by saying that Démare was, in fact, one of the three fastest riders in the world in 2020 and even then his score is the current ceiling for sprinters who were never top dog.

I don't really follow your percentages there. Why would Kooij, Philipsen, Pedersen and Merlier be below 50%?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I don't really follow your percentages there. Why would Kooij, Philipsen, Pedersen and Merlier be below 50%?

Merlier is 33 this month, has there been a single sprinter to manage 35 wins after turning 33?

Philipsen seems to be orienting himself more towards the classics lately. Definitely not as fast as Merlier or Milan anymore, but at the same time he doesn't get over hills well enough that he's going to get a lot of wins from reduced bunch sprints. In addition, he has reached double digit wins for the season only once in his career, so he likely needs quite good longevity regardless.

Pedersen is also definitely getting slower, and given that he's 30 next year he cannot afford for his winrate to taper off at this point if he wants any shot.

Kooij - see the post you quoted.

Overall, the lesson from the previous poll is that we tend to underestimate how difficult 100 wins is - quite a few popular riders from then are completely out of the picture now. There is no way half of this cohort makes it, and therefore also no way all four of these riders are above 50% chance. I'll be surprised if none of them make it, though.

 

[Netserk]

Merlier is 33 this month, has there been a single sprinter to manage 35 wins after turning 33?

Petacchi.

 

[Netserk]

It should go without saying, and normally I wouldn't, but to celebrate the start of the poll-season: Thank you @tobydawq for this poll.

It's a very good thread, and I think the timing is too.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Riders I voted for:

Remco - there will be a few misshaps along the way, but he'll get there

Merlier - the least likely of the ones I think will make it, but I don't see him slowing down enough in the next 3 years to not creep over the line. He started sprinting late and is a smart rider

Philepsen - unfortunately, he will make it. 2025 was an off year for him I think.

Kooj - a 23 year old sprinter with 50 wins. Things would have to go badly wrong

Magnier - same as kooj. Young, professional and a serial winner


Riders who won't make it:

Roglic - 2 years ago I believed he could make it to 100, but the last 6 months in particular have been embarrassing. Given his low race-day approach, I don't see it

Perdersen - this clown is not going to get away with convincing his whole team to take years off their life helping him win 2.1 races after he bottles it in the classics for much longer

MVDP - the best rider on this list but he wins big and then goes to the beach and does MTB. Think we've seen the best of him now as well.

Arnaud de lie - needs to just focus on stringing a whole season together.

Jonatan Milan - reckon he'll hit demare or Viviani numbers at best. Don't see him with a lot of longevity and he said himself he will focus the classics now

 

[tobydawq]

Perdersen - this clown is not going to get away with convincing his whole team to take years off their life helping him win 2.1 races after he bottles it in the classics for much longer

Is the Giro a 2.1 race?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Voted Remco and Kooij. Remco probably 90% and Kooij just north of 50%. Magnier and Philipsen has a chance as well, but not above 50% I think, although it's very early to tell with Magnier.

 

[hayneplane]

The only one I m certain will barring injury is Remco.

De Lie/Kooij/Magnier have racked up an impressive win tally but very few Mig wins against elite competition do as they take on the leader role in world tour classics and grand tours as designated sprinter their tallies could stall a bit.

Milan seems unlikely as I would have blind guessed him having around 40 wins to date so with only 25 he will struggle.

Merlier is a chance as still prolific but a sprinter can easily fall rapidly off the cliff and they only need to lose that top 0.5% and the wins turn into top 5s.

Very unlikely for MVDP as he races too few easy events to farm. Will be remembered as a winner of big races not a big winner of races which is the better way round so he is having an incredibly good career.

Roglic still can but would need to make it a specific goal now by dropping into smaller races and I don’t see that happening.

As a side note I would bet on Pogacar reaching 200 wins quicker than anyone other than Remco hits 100 wins.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Merlier the belge horse already got one closer - 66 wins!

 

[Wyndbrook]

The only one I m certain will barring injury is Remco.

De Lie/Kooij/Magnier have racked up an impressive win tally but very few Mig wins against elite competition do as they take on the leader role in world tour classics and grand tours as designated sprinter their tallies could stall a bit.

Milan seems unlikely as I would have blind guessed him having around 40 wins to date so with only 25 he will struggle.

Merlier is a chance as still prolific but a sprinter can easily fall rapidly off the cliff and they only need to lose that top 0.5% and the wins turn into top 5s.

Very unlikely for MVDP as he races too few easy events to farm. Will be remembered as a winner of big races not a big winner of races which is the better way round so he is having an incredibly good career.

Roglic still can but would need to make it a specific goal now by dropping into smaller races and I don’t see that happening.

As a side note I would bet on Pogacar reaching 200 wins quicker than anyone other than Remco hits 100 wins.

MVDP still has 179 cross and 19 MTB wins to fall back on.