Who will reach 100 wins (2025 version)?

[Cycling111]

Don't disagree with the point you're making, but the second half of Nys' season is not the best example - he got sick right before the Tour, started it before he'd really recovered, and it completely wrecked him to the extent where he had to end his season early.

Probbly, but illnesses in cyclists are also closely related to fatigue. Cyclists stay very thin, and the greater the effort, the greater the risk of illness.

Running the Tour de France has affected Nys's schedule. It would have been more difficult to do what he did in Poland after the Tour de France than last year, when he didn't do the Tour de France and was fresher for the season finale.

 

[red_flanders]

Roglic is not at Almeida's level anymore, though.

A totally reasonable take given this past year. Roglic's behavior and seeming detachment this year was odd to me. Sprint abandoned him, just didn't seem to care. Weird.

13 months ago he won the Vuelta though, and Almeida has no such win on his palmares.

Age is a thing, of course. I don't really doubt what you say, but...part of me also thinks we haven't seen the last of Roglic just yet. Just seems so much more a naturally talented rider than Almeida, and I wonder if something we've not yet heard about was affecting him this year. Or I'm wrong and he's just washed.

 

[Wyndbrook]

A totally reasonable take given this past year. Roglic's behavior and seeming detachment this year was odd to me. Sprint abandoned him, just didn't seem to care. Weird.

13 months ago he won the Vuelta though, and Almeida has no such win on his palmares.

Age is a thing, of course. I don't really doubt what you say, but...part of me also thinks we haven't seen the last of Roglic just yet. Just seems so much more a naturally talented rider than Almeida, and I wonder if something we've not yet heard about was affecting him this year. Or I'm wrong and he's just washed.

Remcoitus perhaps.

 

[red_flanders]

Remcoitus perhaps.

Maybe. Add a case of Lipodosis and that might explain it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Theoretically all of these guys can make it, depending on their schedule. Let Roglic do Algarve and Tour de l'Ain and it's a good bet.

Sprinters are a lot harder to predict. They can drop off at any moment. A year ago everybody would have said Milan, this year he's been less convincing. He's got age on his side though.

Merlier is 33 this month, has there been a single sprinter to manage 35 wins after turning 33?

Petacchi did.

Cipo managed 33 wins after turning 33. Greipel 30. Didn't bother to check further.

 

[JRanton]

If his recent strike rate continues then Magnier will hit 100 wins in about May of next year…

 

[Netserk]

A year ago everybody would have said Milan,

I don't think so.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I guess people will approach the list with different perspectives: some on the basis of "Is he more likely to reach 100 than not?", others thinking "I don't want to see the situation where he gets to 100 and I didn't tick him", voting on basis of "he might"; others again "only saying yes if it is overwhelmingly likely"

I have used the former mindset, so only voted for Evenepoel (80% ish), but Roglic, Philipsen, Kooij I'd place in the 35-50% likelihood, Magnier slightly below that for now.

 

[Rockestar_33]

I voted Primoz, Remco, Kooij, Milan and Magnier. Rogla's schedule will be interesting, I'm hoping he does:

TDU (I think he'd win the prologue and maybe the GC here)
Paris-Nice (Mainly supporting either Lipo or Remco depending on who gets this/Tour)
Catalunya (Better here than Itzulia)
LBL
Suisse (To complete the set)
Tour
Vuelta
Lombardia

 

[tobydawq]

Groenewegen is more likely to make it than Van der Poel.

Especially after today.

He looked damn fast.

 

[Netserk]

glad to see this thread again

sad to be reminded of merliers injury . i guess it will cost him six wins

 

[shalgo]

Is it too early to be hyping Brennan in this thread?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Is it too early to be hyping Brennan in this thread?

Not really, inasmuch as it was already happening >three months ago

We're in a bit of a weird situation where Evenepoel has a >90% shot, Van der Poel has a <10% shot (and doesn't really belong here, IMO - Brennan and to a lesser extent Del Toro were better options)...Brennan is arguably the second-likeliest current pro in my book, ...

 

[andrew_s]

Do I get to vote for Team UAE?
97 wins last year, and running 5 ahead of last year's win rate so far this year.

 

[yaco]

Do I get to vote for Team UAE?
97 wins last year, and running 5 ahead of last year's win rate so far this year.

Last year was 95. The two wins by delToro in the Mexican championship count towards 2026 results.

 

[tobydawq]

Last year was 95. The two wins by delToro in the Mexican championship count towards 2026 results.

That depends who you are.

They happened in 2025, so I count them as 2025 wins. Crazy, I know.

 

[AlpRaid]

Remco at 73 now.

If he stays healthy, probably some time in 2028.

 

[yaco]

That depends who you are.

They happened in 2025, so I count them as 2025 wins. Crazy, I know.

You can quibble with the UCI.

 

[houtdffan]

Remco at 73 now.

If he stays healthy, probably some time in 2028.

The way hes going, maybe he reaches 100 this year or early next

 

[tobydawq]

The way hes going, maybe he reaches 100 this year or early next

This year would be quite the feat.

 

[Berniece]

This year would be quite the feat.

Even next year would be fast. It’s not like he is going to get 20 victories in a year, twice in a row. Doubt he can even get to 20.

 

[Cycling111]

It depends if he repeats this schedule.

Is there a list with WT wins?

 

[rghysens]

The way hes going, maybe he reaches 100 this year or early next

That´ll depend on how much his climbing really improved (I don´t think it´s a lot, but I would be happily proven wrong). But even if he made a giant leap, reaching 100 this year is just outrageous.
Let´s imagine:
2 more stages + gc in uae
4 stages + gc in catalunya (what pog did in 2024)
3 ardennes races
3 or 4 stages + gc in dauphiné (no pog or vingegaard scheduled)
2 Canadian races
2 wc
For a total of 20.
That means he´ll have to win another 5 or 6 in the Tour and 1 or 2 Italian fall races.
That´s not going to happen.

 

[Berniece]

It depends if he repeats this schedule.

Is there a list with WT wins?

Classic, immediately trying to discredit his performance

 

[Cycling111]

Classic, immediately trying to discredit his performance

OK It's not important for speculation. If he repeats this schedule, it's not easier to have more wins in February than if he debuts in Paris-Nice and races less races because he'll race only WT races.

Regarding prestige, Visma won less races than UAE in 2023. Now tell me, it's Visma's 2023 season with all GT or UAE 2023 season.