Who will reach 100 wins (2025 version)?

[Cycling111]

Don't disagree with the point you're making, but the second half of Nys' season is not the best example - he got sick right before the Tour, started it before he'd really recovered, and it completely wrecked him to the extent where he had to end his season early.

Probbly, but illnesses in cyclists are also closely related to fatigue. Cyclists stay very thin, and the greater the effort, the greater the risk of illness.

Running the Tour de France has affected Nys's schedule. It would have been more difficult to do what he did in Poland after the Tour de France than last year, when he didn't do the Tour de France and was fresher for the season finale.

 

[red_flanders]

Roglic is not at Almeida's level anymore, though.

A totally reasonable take given this past year. Roglic's behavior and seeming detachment this year was odd to me. Sprint abandoned him, just didn't seem to care. Weird.

13 months ago he won the Vuelta though, and Almeida has no such win on his palmares.

Age is a thing, of course. I don't really doubt what you say, but...part of me also thinks we haven't seen the last of Roglic just yet. Just seems so much more a naturally talented rider than Almeida, and I wonder if something we've not yet heard about was affecting him this year. Or I'm wrong and he's just washed.

 

[Wyndbrook]

A totally reasonable take given this past year. Roglic's behavior and seeming detachment this year was odd to me. Sprint abandoned him, just didn't seem to care. Weird.

13 months ago he won the Vuelta though, and Almeida has no such win on his palmares.

Age is a thing, of course. I don't really doubt what you say, but...part of me also thinks we haven't seen the last of Roglic just yet. Just seems so much more a naturally talented rider than Almeida, and I wonder if something we've not yet heard about was affecting him this year. Or I'm wrong and he's just washed.

Remcoitus perhaps.

 

[red_flanders]

Remcoitus perhaps.

Maybe. Add a case of Lipodosis and that might explain it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Theoretically all of these guys can make it, depending on their schedule. Let Roglic do Algarve and Tour de l'Ain and it's a good bet.

Sprinters are a lot harder to predict. They can drop off at any moment. A year ago everybody would have said Milan, this year he's been less convincing. He's got age on his side though.

Merlier is 33 this month, has there been a single sprinter to manage 35 wins after turning 33?

Petacchi did.

Cipo managed 33 wins after turning 33. Greipel 30. Didn't bother to check further.

 

[JRanton]

If his recent strike rate continues then Magnier will hit 100 wins in about May of next year…

 

[Netserk]

A year ago everybody would have said Milan,

I don't think so.

 

[CXXC]

I would hope that my favourite Arnaud de Lie could quickly reach 100 wins
but he either needs a better coach or an experienced lead out to avoid bad positioning in race finishes

Voted Evenepoel , Merlier , Phillipsen these are virtually guaranteed

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I guess people will approach the list with different perspectives: some on the basis of "Is he more likely to reach 100 than not?", others thinking "I don't want to see the situation where he gets to 100 and I didn't tick him", voting on basis of "he might"; others again "only saying yes if it is overwhelmingly likely"

I have used the former mindset, so only voted for Evenepoel (80% ish), but Roglic, Philipsen, Kooij I'd place in the 35-50% likelihood, Magnier slightly below that for now.