Bala Verde said:
Instead of just saying who will win or podium, what will the tactics be for those picks to achieve those results?
Rabobank? After last night I'd wager they're ingenious thinking will result in some amazing accomplishments. They'll probably finally get a solid effort from Gesink. Bank on him staying with the big players and stage hunt of bluff with their other climbers. Not a bad team, just stupid at times. Gesink can top 5 if he stays on his bike.
Lotto? Send Jelle up the road in an early attack. Or someone else. Depends on how much time the domestiques have lost doesn't it...if they're close to whomever is in yellow during the first week, then said rider won't be allowed much room to breakaway. Jurgen could easily prosper if his team mate drops back and helps him if he makes an attack. Jelle is good support as evidenced last year. Almost sure they'll top 5.
Movistar? Really it comes down to how good Valverde is. I don't think Cobo is their guy, unless Valverde blows out big time. I'm quietly confident he can make the podium. Actually I want him to win. If he races smart like the 2009 Vuelta, he can do well. How to race? Plenty of strong team mates and ways to bluff. Depends really on how strong Cobo and Valverde are. I think Alejandro's effort last night shows he's coming into some good form. Quite strong what he did for Costa.
RSNT? Well depends on whether Franck and co were being honest. If Franck blows in the third week from peaking too long, that means Kloden is the guy to go to. They can thus bluff the entire first two weeks and have Andreas simply put in a strong chrono where applicable and follow wheels. They can certainly go out and attack in the mountains. Have a domestique drop back on big stages from break aways waiting for their GC leader is he needs. Plenty of support too when the riders thin to 15 or less. Sky will not have 4-5 guys in those scenarios. Absolutely no way will it happen. I'll get to that. RSNT have the most cards to play but with the least form to back it up. Couldn't be worse than last year right? 3 GC guys crashing out!
Katusha? Honestly, who knows. Dennis typically just needs one or two guys to stay with him. Rotate them around. Have someone there for the climbing stages that end on descents. His 2008 chances were blown on a descent. Lost 50 seconds. Dennis is susceptible there, just like Schleck and to a lesser degree Wiggins. Their tactic will be simply to support Dennis and bank on his meticulous reliability when he's ON FORM. If he is, he'll do the rest by playing the averages out and beating most guys with consistency. If not on form, it won't matter either way. Stage hunt.
Liquigas? Depends on the Giro guys they bring. Basso I hope slaughters people in a big pull in a mountain stage in the third week. I've been waiting years to see Liquigas put the hammer down during the Tour on a climb. Maybe they can do it for Nibali. But I don't expect them to. Give him a platform to attack on. Absolutely no way he won't have a dig on a descent. He's that good, it's too much of a trump card to not play. But is it really a trump card? Debatable who he will gain time on if any. Last year suggests if some riders are on edge, there will be gaps on descents. At least one guy will lose time. Evans, Samu and Valverde can always join in. Be great to see these four smack Sky on a descent.
Garmin? Wild card. Who bloody knows what they'll do? They do. I think Tommy D will be the man for Garmin but they have the luxury of bluffing if Ryder or CVV are high up at the end of the first week. Guys who can arguably top 10 and have, but are more than willing to go to a super domestique roll if required. I'd like to see them take a risk and bluff with a strategic breakaway. But Garmin will probably run it by the numbers like they did in the Giro. Hold on and when everyone is on the limit, get what you can. They have the luxury of having won the Giro and no pressure to do fantastically at the Tour. Could surprise...but won't win IMO.
BMC. Easy. Copy last year and bank on Cadel being consistently the strongest rider in the peloton. So how to tackle Sky? Easy, just let the idiots do all the work until Froome is the only one left. Then pounce. Cadel mirrors last year IMO he is the undisputed favourite. Climbers make a move...go with them. The third week is always between certain riders and if Cadel is still there, I can see him countering every opponent. They're a climber, match them or almost match them, beat them in the ITT. Chrono specialist, then spank them on a climb when they're really pushed. Cadel will definitely have a go. Has the ammunition, the ambition and desire to use it. He's got plenty of options...just depends who is still high up at the end of 3 weeks.
Astana...ummm. Stage hunt. Duh!
Lower teams...Euskatel, Europcar. Samu and Rolland naturally. Let them attack in the climbs. If Samu doesn't start this Tour like last years outing and doesn't lose big time chunks, he won't be afforded such luxuries. I'd wager he'd then attack less. But it's those few places you want to jump up that dictate how you'll attack, if you do at all. Play it safe early on for Samu, get to the third week and then replan. Focus on staying ON the bike. IMO, these two need to punish Sky in the mountains. Just like Radioshack.
So that brings us to Sky. Pray they bring Cav and Eisel. They cannot run a train forever. Heck, Garmin made comments about Sky digging themselves into a hole. Everyone should refuse to help them if Wiggins gets into yellow. Force them to hold it for as long as possible. Then wait for the fatigue, wait for Porte and Rogers to pop (they've done it before so many times). Then pounce. Test their whole team on your terrain. Feeling good, have a go. Sky have not shown they can win a GT. They still have to put it together on the road. So there are definite chinks in the armour. When the third week arrives, assuming Wiggins is even a contender, there will be guys taking a shot at him. Froome will be there. Can't forget that. He could end up being the man they go to. But the PR machine has decreed it's Brad. Use that knowledge. The teams above need to use their skills in the third week to attack. Wiggins will lose time to climbers. It's a given. When he's isolated push him. Make him do it himself. Don't hand them freebies. Don't pull for Sky. Period. Make them do their own work. That means you Rabobank.
Hopefully we'll see a Tour like the 2007 one. Lots of ambitious attacks. Lots of flair. Lots of desire to have a go. Now, as always, guys will think of themselves. That's a prerequisite. Riders won't always work together and teams can foolishly help someone they shouldn't. Just remember, during the third week, if you're close to your limit, rushing off chasing glory in a daredevil attack isn't wise. If you're fighting for 5th, or just one position in the top 10, people play it safe. Thing is getting to the final week and still being in the fight for yellow in Paris is the aim. So naturally some will be more cautious. We'll see how it folds out. I'm confident Sky will crack. I'm not even sure Wiggins will be their best rider. I'm also optimistic that Valverde will win. Or Evans. Or Nibali. Or Menchov. Or Samu. How about Rolland anyone?
(1)
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram