Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Krebs cycle]

Not sure if this has been mentioned (didn't read all 125 pages), but even though this tour has fewer mtn top finishes, there are more HC and cat 1 climbs in total compared with the past 2-3yrs. I think we will see a number of GC riders go on the offensive especially on the downhill finishing stages which appears to be Wiggins' biggest weakness. All this means that it is still going to be a very tough race for Team Sky to control and even though Wiggins has the better TT than Evans when fresh, Wiggins is yet to demonstrate that he can produce a tour winning ITT on the penultimate day of the TdF. He only managed to beat Evans by about 30sec in 2009 (when Evans was injured), whereas we saw last year what Evans is capable of almost matching Tony Martin.

I don't think Evans will get enough time over Wiggins before the final TT to be certain of victory, so IMO this tour will come down to who has been able to expend the least amount of energy (whilst limiting time losses) and thus remain freshest for the ITT.

 

[roundabout]

IDK he didn't really race the Giro, he might be ok.

He was obviously in better form than say Gesink in the TdS and he is up to over 50 racing days already.

And 2 weeks of the Giro that he didn't prepare for is still a tough buildup, regardless of however many cracks about not really racing there are made.

 

[konne86]

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[taiwan]

He was obviously in better form than say Gesink in the TdS and he is up to over 50 racing days already.

And 2 weeks of the Giro that he didn't prepare for is still a tough buildup, regardless of however many cracks about not really racing there are made.

I wasn't making a crack about him not attacking enough at the Giro or anything, just pointing out that he didn't complete the Giro and was never a factor in the race. It has been known for riders to do the Giro (without contesting the GC) in preperation for the Tour, e.g. Vande Velde and Wiggins have attempted that. IDK how you feel about Wiggins, but didn't his best Tour come off of a Giro and a Dauphinee?

edit - was a Giro but no Dauphinee, sry.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-doesnt-want-captains-role-at-tour-de-france

So it is as most people here probably suggested. Schleck with 2 weeks Giro and Luxembourg was in top form in Suisse and even Fränk himself doesn't think he can hold this level..

 

[Havetts]

Giro for the Tour prep is doable.. Look at Menchov 2008. 5th or 4th ( cant remember properly ) and 3rd in the Tour..

 

[roundabout]

Nobody asked Menchov to race TdL and TdS for the win though.

 

[theyoungest]

Nobody asked Menchov to race TdL and TdS for the win though.

But Fränk skipped the hardest part of the Giro. I do agree that he did seem to be in fantastic form already, and it now turns out he himself thinks that as well.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Giro for the Tour prep is doable.. Look at Menchov 2008. 5th or 4th ( cant remember properly ) and 3rd in the Tour..

Schleck's Giro isn't the problem. Those 2 weeks were pretty damn soft for someone of his level and he wasn't in great shape, either.

The "problem" is that he seemed to peak for the Tour of Switzerland and was already on great form for his home tour. Of course, if Andy hadn't crashed there wouldn't have been a problem. On the contrary, the last thing you'd want is to have Frank Schleck higher up on GC than Andy during the first mountain stages.

Bruyneel didn't do anything wrong. He just made sure that Andy was the undisputed leader this time.

 

[roundabout]

Schleck's Giro isn't the problem. Those 2 weeks were pretty damn soft for someone of his level and he wasn't in great shape, either.

The "problem" is that he seemed to peak for the Tour of Switzerland and was already on great form for his home tour. Of course, if Andy hadn't crashed there wouldn't have been a problem. On the contrary, the last thing you'd want is to have Frank Schleck higher up on GC than Andy during the first mountain stages.

Bruyneel didn't do anything wrong. He just made sure that Andy was the undisputed leader this time.

So he wasn't in great shape at the Giro and 10 days later he was in great form for the TdL?

He hit top form too early because of the Giro, so obviously the Giro is a problem for his Tour form.

And Bruyneel absolutely did everything wrong. Right from the point the season planning was made.

 

[dlwssonic]

If wiggins can hold his form in the tour I don't see why frank can't.

 

[roundabout]

Anyway, Leipheimer seemed to ride well in the few mountains that were there in the TdS. The problem seems to be his TT.

Also, Danielson was even better in the mountains. But again, his TT was worse than I thought it would be and I don't know who Garmin will ride for in the Tour.

 

[Froome19]

But Fränk skipped the hardest part of the Giro. I do agree that he did seem to be in fantastic form already, and it now turns out he himself thinks that as well.

It was not about the Giro and him being tired but rather that he cant maintain top form for such a prolonged period of time

Schleck's Giro isn't the problem. Those 2 weeks were pretty damn soft for someone of his level and he wasn't in great shape, either.

The "problem" is that he seemed to peak for the Tour of Switzerland and was already on great form for his home tour. Of course, if Andy hadn't crashed there wouldn't have been a problem. On the contrary, the last thing you'd want is to have Frank Schleck higher up on GC than Andy during the first mountain stages.

Bruyneel didn't do anything wrong. He just made sure that Andy was the undisputed leader this time.

See above, Schleck was getting into very good form from the Giro as he had taken his Ardennes form which was in fact good even though he didnt really demonstrate anything in any of them. He then prolonged that peak to the Giro and then to Luxembourg and Suisse, peaks like one required to podium a GT needs to be built up gradually and this is certainly not the way to do it.
He may have it in him but it is unlikely and this is a relatively clever way to alleviate pressure and allow him a freer reign with the other favorites if he does have it in him.

 

[taiwan]

OK so Schleck confirms he won't be able to hold form throughout the Tour. He can still bring something to the racing though, hopefully. Plus I doubt other contenders will truly believe that until he's at a safe distance on GC. He'll still have to be marked.

 

[theyoungest]

It was not about the Giro and him being tired but rather that he cant maintain top form for such a prolonged period of time

I know, but this was about the comparison with Menchov, and that no one asked him to race for the win in the Giro. And while that's true, he actually completed the Giro in 5th which suggests that his form was at least reasonable.

It's perfectly possible to get close to top form a month before the Tour, then take it down a little (Gesink says he's done this after his ToC win) and then back up again for the Tour. But indeed Fränk seems to have gone full gas the past month.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

So he wasn't in great shape at the Giro and 10 days later he was in great form for the TdL?

He hit top form too early because of the Giro, so obviously the Giro is a problem for his Tour form.

No, he hit his peak form at that time because he obviously trained hard aftwerwards with Switzerland in mind. He should have rested more and then build up further towards the Tour IF that was a goal. But it wasn't.

 

[roundabout]

Ah, forget it.

 

[Froome19]

No, he hit his peak form at that time because he obviously trained hard aftwerwards with Switzerland in mind. He should have rested more and then build up further towards the Tour IF that was a goal. But it wasn't.

So he was peaking for the ardennes and then the Giro and then he dropped and came back immediately for Luxembourg and was peaking again for Suisse

 

[Pentacycle]

So he was peaking for the ardennes and then the Giro and then he dropped and came back immediately for Luxembourg and was peaking again for Suisse

You can compare his season with Kreuziger´s or Cunego´s. With Schleck they´ve tried to get results in the Ardennes, the Giro and Suisse. The big difference is that Frank wasn´t as tired as the other two who finished the Giro, so he had something left for TdS. Frank will be done by the 2nd week of le Tour I think. Problem now is that he had originally planned to ride as Andy´s gregario, so winning Suisse was the only thing he could have done, so Shack just doesn´t have a leader.

 

[Froome19]

You can compare his season with Kreuziger´s or Cunego´s. With Schleck they´ve tried to get results in the Ardennes, the Giro and Suisse. The big difference is that Frank wasn´t as tired as the other two who finished the Giro, so he had something left for TdS. Frank will be done by the 2nd week of le Tour I think. Problem now is that he had originally planned to ride as Andy´s gregario, so winning Suisse was the only thing he could have done, so Shack just doesn´t have a leader.

Indeed though Cunego hasnt been at his peak for the Giro or Suisse.
Its not about tiredness but about maintaining peak form.

 

[hughmoore]

Regardless of how bad Franks form is, they are not going to let him off the leash.

I can see Wiggans sitting behind Evans, not the other way around. Evans will have to attack and he would want 90 secs lead going into the last TT.


Hugh

 

[phanatic]

I don't believe Frank was really in peak form at the Ardennes and only seemed to be nearing it in the Giro. He was much better at the TdS, but took it somewhat easy. I call his bluff. He's going to tear the Tour to shreds, but has no chance for the overall with the 100 km of truth.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Indeed though Cunego hasnt been at his peak for the Giro or Suisse.
Its not about tiredness but about maintaining peak form.

wrong. Cunego might not have looked that good, but he did a pretty good giro all in all. he was close to his best no doubt... in the high mountains anyway.

Regarding schleck he probably will falter, but he can really do the race favor and I suspect he will. And it is no surprise seeing a rider downplay their chances, not many like the pressure of expectations.

 

[CraigN]

Wiggins probably, although I will cry when that happens.

I hope Samu. With all my heart.

Ive got my money on Wiggins too... he's in top form this season! I think it's going to be close tho, Cadels a fighter!

 

[Froome19]

wrong. Cunego might not have looked that good, but he did a pretty good giro all in all. he was close to his best no doubt... in the high mountains anyway.
.

Imo if he had the form he had at last years Tour he would have been among the best cilmbers if not the best climber there.
Even without that form he should have done better than he did, he was good yes but at his peak he was not.