Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[SafeBet]

In le tour they race so much harder than the vuelta and the calibre of the race favourites are so much higher.
come on wiggins was racing against cobo and froome.
In the tour he has to race against the likes of evans, gesink, nibali and the schlecks.

Nibs was actually in the Vuelta last year.

 

[dlwssonic]

Nibs was actually in the Vuelta last year.

lol you wanna say wiggins did well because he beat a terribly off form nibali???

 

[karlboss]

There is a colossal difference between a TT at the end of a GT and a TT on stage 3 or so of a week long race.

I agree, so a nod to Evans?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I agree, so a nod to Evans?

Swings and round abouts. Only in 1 of those 2 situations did both take part, and then we have to make a series of assumptions to work out what that comparison actually means.

Personally I'm interested to see how Evans goes - I suspect someone achieving his career goal so late in his career will then struggle to motivate himself, but we'll see.

 

[dlwssonic]

Swings and round abouts. Only in 1 of those 2 situations did both take part, and then we have to make a series of assumptions to work out what that comparison actually means.

Personally I'm interested to see how Evans goes - I suspect someone achieving his career goal so late in his career will then struggle to motivate himself, but we'll see.

Yeah he really did not look motivated at the criterium internationl.
Cadel wants another tour before he retires I'm sure. He is very motivated for this one. And its probably his last chance. With age catching up with him and a very suitable parcours. Plus the great one will be back next year. Don't doubt his motivation.
He looked bad at romandie due to that infection.

 

[SafeBet]

You wanna say wiggins did well because he beat a terribly off form nibali???

I'm just saying the competition was not as weak as you are suggesting.
Both Froome and Cobo were in exceptional form. Martin and Mollema were also very good. Plus Menchov and Purito.
Nibs faded in the third week, but it's not like he was completely out of form to my eyes. Scarponi on the other hand...yeah you know about it.

Wiggins did ok in last year Vuelta. And he's been previously 4th in the TdF (beating the likes of Frank Schleck and Nibbles). Results say he can sustain multiple MTF in a 3 week race.

 

[karlboss]

Swings and round abouts. Only in 1 of those 2 situations did both take part, and then we have to make a series of assumptions to work out what that comparison actually means.

Personally I'm interested to see how Evans goes - I suspect someone achieving his career goal so late in his career will then struggle to motivate himself, but we'll see.

Same winner in almost exactly the same time should suggest something, but as noted, there are lots of variables. You might have to go all the way back to 2009 to see them both head to head in a TT that mattered, and there was a whole 4 seconds between them over 15km.

I've also wondered about Evans' motivation coming in, he usually works pretty hard and shows really well early season, this year he won CI, and looked comforable doing it, but it wasn't convincing or against the best competition.

 

[Lanark]

I'm just saying the competition was not as weak as you are suggesting.
Both Froome and Cobo were in exceptional form. Martin and Mollema were also very good. Plus Menchov and Purito.
Nibs faded in the third week, but it's not like he was completely out of form to my eyes. Scarponi on the other hand...yeah you know about it.

Wiggins did ok in last year Vuelta. And he's been previously 4th in the TdF (beating the likes of Frank Schleck and Nibbles). Results say he can sustain multiple MTF in a 3 week race.

One thing to keep in mind about the 2009 Tour is that the three mountain top finishes were really easy, virtually no difficulty untill the final climb. The only mountain stage with several tough climbs was the stage to Le Grand Bornand, and he lost quite a bit of time there. That could be the biggest danger for Wiggins, if they ride hard and early in the mountain stages. But the odds of that are pretty poor of course.

 

[DominicDecoco]

Half of the betting sites probably place their odds on this poll. We should have been able to vote on Alex Zülle. If we all did then we'd all be rich by the end of July. It's the perfect plan.

 

[patterson_hood]

lol you wanna say wiggins did well because he beat a terribly off form nibali???

Wiggins was hardly on best form after his crash in the TDF. People seem to forget that. I voted for him but I'm less than 50% confident that he'll win it. It's just I think he is more likely to than anyone else.

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

One thing to keep in mind about the 2009 Tour is that the three mountain top finishes were really easy, virtually no difficulty untill the final climb. The only mountain stage with several tough climbs was the stage to Le Grand Bornand, and he lost quite a bit of time there. That could be the biggest danger for Wiggins, if they ride hard and early in the mountain stages. But the odds of that are pretty poor of course.

What Wiggins did in 2009 is completely irrelevant, he had only been taking road cycling seriously for a few months back then. Completely different animal now although we still don't know what he is capable of in tough mountain stages because he hasn't had a chance to show it yet.

 

[Carols]

Fränkie and Andy in a monumental tt?

Sure they'll be the limpets tagged on the back doing no work in a TTT as usual. Good tactics, bad show of strength....

 

[dlwssonic]

Wiggins was hardly on best form after his crash in the TDF. People seem to forget that. I voted for him but I'm less than 50% confident that he'll win it. It's just I think he is more likely to than anyone else.

but he was pretty close his best form. he was very strong near the end of the season.
Was he at his best form in the 2010 tdf?
just a question.

 

[airstream]

You mean he TTs up hill and doesn't attack and change pace? but he is an aggressive racer, which is the difference and I'd say a better climber than Evans or Wiggins.

Nibali is an agressive rider in the general sense of this word. As for high mountains he is almost as such defensive as Wiggins. Yeah, he's able to gain something on descents or some hilly terrain but that's not enough for the podium.

Hard to predict his climbing level cos he hasn't ridden the Tour a very long time.

 

[johnnycash]

What Wiggins did in 2009 is completely irrelevant, he had only been taking road cycling seriously for a few months back then. Completely different animal now although we still don't know what he is capable of in tough mountain stages because he hasn't had a chance to show it yet.

Agreed. Plus wasn't he actually a domestique for Vande Velde? Wiggo of 2012 is a different proposition entirely and tdf field is, in my view, weaker. No AC, Lance, Schlecks look less well prepared.

I also agree that there is a question mark over Cadels motivation, and his team for that matter. I'm sure he'll go well, but sustaining a pursuit like he did of Andy up the Galibier (was it?) , which may be a break from Sky in 2012,perhaps may be harder to recreate now he has won it, we'll see.

 

[karlboss]

Nibali is an agressive rider in the general sense of this word. As for high mountains he is almost as such defensive as Wiggins. Yeah, he's able to gain something on descents or some hilly terrain but that's not enough for the podium.

Hard to predict his climbing level cos he hasn't ridden the Tour a very long time.

stage 15 giro 2011, Nibali attacked in the high mountains no? didn't work but he attacked. Climbing...in the 2010 giro he outclimbed evans a few times, and I think is better now.
I think Nibali knows he can't TT with Evans, could climb better and will attack in the mountains, even if it doesn't work.
Defintely an outside shot at a podium, if I was to take an honest stab at where i think he'll finish it would be 6th.

 

[Froome19]

I'm just saying the competition was not as weak as you are suggesting.
Both Froome and Cobo were in exceptional form. Martin and Mollema were also very good. Plus Menchov and Purito.
Nibs faded in the third week, but it's not like he was completely out of form to my eyes. Scarponi on the other hand...yeah you know about it.

Wiggins did ok in last year Vuelta. And he's been previously 4th in the TdF (beating the likes of Frank Schleck and Nibbles). Results say he can sustain multiple MTF in a 3 week race.

Ummmm..... Froome and Cobo two supposed domestiques were in good form all right. Mollema was in good form yet he was never truly considered a proper contestant for the overall and like Froome and Cobo had never proved much in previous GTs.
Menchov was never a contester as he was awful in the first 2 weeks or so and only started coming good towards the end, where on the only mountain stage- Angliru- he was way better than Wiggins.
Purito could climb short stuff he could do that with his eyes closed, and on the longer climbs he never once finished in the front group and was evidently in pretty awful form.
Martin isnt worth mentioning, he couldnt climb that Vuelta and whether he ever will be capable is up to debate.....
Nibali wasnt that bad, just he wasnt up to the rigours of a 3 week race and Scarponi wasnt great at all.
And Anton as well wasnt existent either.

You have to remember that all these riders you mentioned also rode and completed a GT previously in the season (not Froome and Cobo) and therefore they were not up to top form.
You can prove Wiggin's is capable of winning the tour from a lot of things but not from last years Vuelta.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Shouldn't Sky put their money on Froome?
Will they make the same mistake twice?

 

[Fetisoff]

Shouldn't Sky put their money on Froome?
Will they make the same mistake twice?

Has Froome ever shown he can climb with the best on the multi-climb stage?

 

[Froome19]

Shouldn't Sky put their money on Froome?
Will they make the same mistake twice?

The chances of Wiggins being in form than Froome being in form are remarkably higher.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Has Froome ever shown he can climb with the best on the multi-climb stage?

Well he outperformed Wiggins at last year's Vuelta. Shouldn't that give him the captains role?

 

[karlboss]

Froome has only ridden one race in his life at that level, hardly consistent enough to back for the tour. So far this year he's been off to, i'm not sure how much his form could progress from romandie.

 

[Froome19]

Also you have to remember that Sky are very methodical and scientific and they will certainly see the numbers riders are putting out in training and know how strong they are, and who deserves to lead for the tour etc.

 

[woodburn]

What is the realistic combined time loss for Andy to each of the other main contenders in the time trial? And what gap would he need before the final 52k TT to hold them off?

Could he lose five minutes overall to the top contenders since he lost 3.5 seconds per K in the final time trial last year to Evans?

If so that means he will have to be attacking all the time which could be interesting.

 

[airstream]

Well, most of regulars voted as I see... 15 is not a weak number considering a general mood and the fact that everyone who comes here often falls under the anti-Schleck hypnosis.

Honestly, I have more belief in Froome, don't know why though it is not reinforced with any results this season. He is a real climber from God and possibly demostrated in last year's Vuelta more than Wiggo did in his entire road career. No team won't save Wiggins from Andy. As soon as Schleck attack, you will feel like all the rest pedal in the opposite direction.