Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Caruut]

Well, if TDF is raced like Giro was I can actually see Wiggans winning, with Tony Martin on the podium, shared with Evans or Menchov

I don't think it will be though. One of the Giro's problems was that a lot of riders were at a very similar climbing level. I think if a few of the climbers (Nibali, Andy and Samu, for example) said to each other "we need to really stick the knife into Tony" and worked together, they could take minutes out of him on a MTF. If Nibs and Samu did a descent together after the mountain, he'd lose even more time.

 

[The Hitch]

I wouldn't start holding your breath though. Froome's still yet to even come close to Vuelta form.

lol not this year. I meant maybe at some point in the future.

 

[Fetisoff]

I don't think it will be though. One of the Giro's problems was that a lot of riders were at a very similar climbing level. I think if a few of the climbers (Nibali, Andy and Samu, for example) said to each other "we need to really stick the knife into Tony" and worked together, they could take minutes out of him on a MTF. If Nibs and Samu did a descent together after the mountain, he'd lose even more time.

Well, I wasn't really serious with that statement, it would have to be raced really pathetically for Martin to podium, and I just don't see it happening with this many capable climbers.
That being said though, IMHO Wiggans' chances of winning almost depend more on the mindset of Menchov/Evans, than on what the "climbers" do, because if Pope/Evans make the mistake of thinking "he'll crack on his own eventually", I can see Schleck/Andy/Samu attacking, with Evans/Menchov/Wiggans slowly grinding their way back catching up or minimizing losses. So if this happens, they can find themselves at the end of all mountain stages with Wiggo still right there, and don't get me wrong both of them have shown that they can ride a mean time trial, especially when it really matters, but I just think Wiggo's still too good for either one of them

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

For lots of people: Yes.

maybe on a personal sense but him winning would mean some hard racing, which means a good tour to watch.

 

[greenedge]

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=16520

personally all i ask is that Menchov is on top form with no bad luck.

Lol at how all the votes have now changed.

I think Evans will win, after being confident from last year.

Also i don't think Martin has the stamina to consistently perform on back to back mountain stages in competing FTW. Also digging deep to get a top 10 would probably screw up his Olympic chances.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

maybe on a personal sense but him winning would mean some hard racing, which means a good tour to watch.

So that means i have to root for ASchleck.

 

[Caruut]

Well, in my opinion (and the opinion of the poll, too), there are 7 main contenders. Of those, Wiggins can time-trial better than all of them, yet they can all climb better than him. As much as Wiggins' chances depend on the mindset of Menchov and Evans, their mindsets also depend on the behaviour of the climbers. If we see strong attacks from quite far out, I expect Evans and Menchov will want to stay with those attacks. If we see close range attacks from Andy, Gesink, Samu and Nibali, then I expect Evans and Menchov to try and put in smaller attacks with them, but I'm not sure they can gain enough time in the last few kms to actually beat Wiggins.

 

[The Hitch]

So that means i have to root for ASchleck.

You can root against him and he may still attack.

Worked last year

 

[greenedge]

If you looked at form this year you would say Wiggins and Nibali would be the two outstanding favourites. However it never pans out this way I think there are five riders who have a genuine shot at winning-

Wiggins, Nibali, Evans, Schleck, Menchov, Sanchez

You have 6 though

 

[greenedge]

Where is Valverde?

A few of the guys on your list don't stand a chance against him.

I agree he should be on the list but so should Leipheimer and Rolland.

I think his ITT is not that great as it has been.

 

[Caruut]

I always find it odd on poll threads that people get sucked into discussing who should be the 8th option, when neither of them really have that much of a chance.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

i've seen and ridden the Tour 2012 in PCM a couple of times. And I really see it going to a time trial specialist like Wiggins or Evans and possibly Menchov.
The mountain stages are simply so disappointing

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You can root against him and he may still attack.

Worked last year

Didn´t work out until his solo ride. When i rooted against him, he attacked AFIR from 500 meters out.

 

[Fetisoff]

I always find it odd on poll threads that people get sucked into discussing who should be the 8th option, when neither of them really have that much of a chance.

Well, it's not as much of a "whether rider A or B can actually win", it's more like "why the hell would you include rider B, when rider A (who happens to be my favourite rider) is actually much stronger and will finish ahead of B"

 

[Fetisoff]

i've seen and ridden the Tour 2012 in PCM a couple of times. And I really see it going to a time trial specialist like Wiggins or Evans and possibly Menchov.
The mountain stages are simply so disappointing

How accurate was PCM in predicting the Giro this year?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

How accurate was PCM in predicting the Giro this year?

At least on my PCM-DB Ryder once came close to win the giro, just got injured...

 

[Caruut]

Well, it's not as much of a "whether rider A or B can actually win", it's more like "why the hell would you include rider B, when rider A (who happens to be my favourite rider) is actually much stronger and will finish ahead of B"

That's what I mean. They argue about who should have been the 8th option, not about who would win it. There is something strange about criticising a poll which asks "who will win?" for not including a rider who almost certainly won't. Anyone voting for Valverde or Martin is clearly voting with their heart not their head.

 

[Caruut]

How accurate was PCM in predicting the Giro this year?

I am playing the 2012 Giro right now, and both Hesjedal and Rodríguez have worn the MR. That's as far as reality went though. Both got caught up in crashes and big splits on small hills and lost like 5 minutes. Richie Porte is now wearing it.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

No matter how I slice it I see myself being dissapointed with the outcome.
Would rather evans then wiggo I suppose

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That's what I mean. They argue about who should have been the 8th option, not about who would win it. There is something strange about criticising a poll which asks "who will win?" for not including a rider who almost certainly won't. Anyone voting for Valverde or Martin is clearly voting with their heart not their head.

I disagree. There are clearly favorites and outsiders, and then you have guys who won't even come close. Contador isn't riding, that means the field is relatively wide open. I would think the main contender would be Wiggins if he brings his best form. Unless Martin can take 2 times 5 minutes in the ITT on ALL of the others, i don't see him as a viable option. Hesjedal is no contador, and might very well not make the top 10 (just like last year). He won't do the double, he won't even come close.

Outside of Wiggins, the others that are great ITT'ers, are nearing retirement. A lot of the others (Gesink, Nibali, JvdB...) are actually very close. So if you really want to go with the guys that are clearly the best candidates and have a real shot at winning this, the poll should just have one name: Wiggins. Or rename it to "will Wiggins win the TDF"?

 

[greenedge]

Richie Porte is now wearing it.

Yay, he shall probably own in the ITT as well.

Also @TLR: Why don't you like Cadel much?

 

[Caruut]

I disagree. There are clearly favorites and outsiders, and then you have guys who won't even come close. Contador isn't riding, that means the field is relatively wide open. I would think the main contender would be Wiggins if he brings his best form. Unless Martin can take 2 times 5 minutes in the ITT on ALL of the others, i don't see him as a viable option. Hesjedal is no contador, and might very well not make the top 10 (just like last year). He won't do the double, he won't even come close.

Outside of Wiggins, the others that are great ITT'ers, are nearing retirement. A lot of the others (Gesink, Nibali, JvdB...) are actually very close. So if you really want to go with the guys that are clearly the best candidates and have a real shot at winning this, the poll should just have one name: Wiggins. Or rename it to "will Wiggins win the TDF"?

This post is so ridiculous that it really doesn't deserve a reply, but I'll give it one anyway. Dismissing everyone but Wiggins is just stupid.

I was saying that it's pointless saying "Who is a better option, Martin or Valverde?" because both would basically need highly unlikely things to happen to even have a chance. They would need fluke situations like crashes, illnesses or huge breakaways to have a shot. Discussing whether you think the top 7 contenders are all going to have some dodgy seafood on the rest day or not is, to me, utterly meaningless.

Discussing whether or not enough attacks could crack Wiggins is entirely relevant and can form a real discussion. Let's not forget that last time we saw properly saw Wiggins at the Tour, he finished over half an hour behind Andy Schleck, Denis Menchov and Samu Sanchéz. Even in 2009, he fought and fought to finish 4th, but certainly was never looking particularly like winning it. Given that it's been nearly 3 years since he raced the high mountains at Tour level, I think you absolute faith in him might be a little optimistic.

For someone with a username as smug as yours, I'd have thought you'd put a bit more though into your posts.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This post is so ridiculous that it really doesn't deserve a reply, but I'll give it one anyway. Dismissing everyone but Wiggins is just stupid.

I was saying that it's pointless saying "Who is a better option, Martin or Valverde?" because both would basically need highly unlikely things to happen to even have a chance. They would need fluke situations like crashes, illnesses or huge breakaways to have a shot. Discussing whether you think the top 7 contenders are all going to have some dodgy seafood on the rest day or not is, to me, utterly meaningless.

Discussing whether or not enough attacks could crack Wiggins is entirely relevant and can form a real discussion. Let's not forget that last time we saw properly saw Wiggins at the Tour, he finished over half an hour behind Andy Schleck, Denis Menchov and Samu Sanchéz. Even in 2009, he fought and fought to finish 4th, but certainly was never looking particularly like winning it. Given that it's been nearly 3 years since he raced the high mountains at Tour level, I think you absolute faith in him might be a little optimistic.

For someone with a username as smug as yours, I'd have thought you'd put a bit more though into your posts.

For someone starting his reply with a jab that it doesn't deserve a reply, the point surely totally went over your head, didn't it? Next time, do me a favor and don't respond.

There are a couple of names you can surely eliminate from that list. For one, Hesjedal, and Martin. The others can be open for discussion. Yet YOU find it funny that i and others name a couple of riders that have more chances, and dismiss it as "funny, because they don't stand a chance either". That's what YOU are saying. Then you tell me, who should be in the poll? How many names should be in the poll? Because if you find it laughable, that i say JvdB should have been added, surely guys like Gesink and Nibali shouldn't be added either? Let alone Frank Schleck. So who does have a decent shot? According to you, Wiggins is very doubtful too. So basically, following your logic, we'll be looking at a bunch of 35 year olds battling it out? My point was that the field is wide open but there are some names in the poll who do not stand a single chance, not that Wiggins is the only viable option. Next time you want to insult someone's intelligence or opinion, make sure you know you understand what's being said.

 

[The Hitch]

This post is so ridiculous that it really doesn't deserve a reply, but I'll give it one anyway. Dismissing everyone but Wiggins is just stupid.

I was saying that it's pointless saying "Who is a better option, Martin or Valverde?" because both would basically need highly unlikely things to happen to even have a chance. They would need fluke situations like crashes, illnesses or huge breakaways to have a shot. Discussing whether you think the top 7 contenders are all going to have some dodgy seafood on the rest day or not is, to me, utterly meaningless.

Discussing whether or not enough attacks could crack Wiggins is entirely relevant and can form a real discussion. Let's not forget that last time we saw properly saw Wiggins at the Tour, he finished over half an hour behind Andy Schleck, Denis Menchov and Samu Sanchéz. Even in 2009, he fought and fought to finish 4th, but certainly was never looking particularly like winning it. Given that it's been nearly 3 years since he raced the high mountains at Tour level, I think you absolute faith in him might be a little optimistic.

For someone with a username as smug as yours, I'd have thought you'd put a bit more though into your posts.

Well the valverde to martin comparison is a bit wide.

I mean lets not forget, Valverde did actually win the last grand tour he competed in

I would not put him as 1 of the favourites but hell he does have some sort of a shot at it.

Martin meanwhile has as much of a chance as Cav.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Yay, he shall probably own in the ITT as well.

Also @TLR: Why don't you like Cadel much?

I never liked his attitude, especilly towards his contendors. Rather then admit he was beaten by a stronger rider he'd provide the excuses, also he is not the type of rider I generally support. He does have a lot of heart tho, I'll give him that.