Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[El Pistolero]

Nah all Cav needs is one rider in Eisel and if he is having a bad day then maybe Pate/Knees (whoever gets that last spot)
As what do you expect them to do? All they need to do is to ride and make sure Cav is holding onto the back wheel.

Cav needs a lot of support during the mountains.

 

[Froome19]

Cav needs a lot of support during the mountains.

Exactly my point his support can come from other places
Doesnt need to be from his own team (riders)

 

[cineteq]

Exactly my point his support can come from other places
Doesnt need to be from his own team (riders)

You mean cars, right?

 

[TheEnoculator]

Cav rode the entire Giro, hoping to win the points jersey, but that didn't happen. Now he wants to defend the green jersey AND win the Olympics? I doubt he can ride two complete GTs in a row and win the Olympics.

Wiggo is in the best ever position in his career to win the Tour. Sky was created to produce their first ever British Tour winner in 5 years, that's their sole objective from the beginning. Now they have the chance to reach that goal before the 5-year mark. I say Sky will put all their eggs into Wiggo and if Cav is smart and really wants to win the Olympics, he'd skip the Tour.

Having two guys working for Cav is not enough to defend the green jersey. Cav needs a train.

 

[Froome19]

Cav rode the entire Giro, hoping to win the points jersey, but that didn't happen. Now he wants to defend the green jersey AND win the Olympics? I doubt he can ride two complete GTs in a row and win the Olympics.

Wiggo is in the best ever position in his career to win the Tour. Sky was created to produce their first ever British Tour winner in 5 years, that's their sole objective from the beginning. Now they have the chance to reach that goal before the 5-year mark. I say Sky will put all their eggs into Wiggo and if Cav is smart and really wants to win the Olympics, he'd skip the Tour.

Having two guys working for Cav is not enough to defend the green jersey. Cav needs a train.

Read the previous posts

You mean cars, right?

Right.

 

[dlwssonic]

No, BMC were lucky. Who knows what Wiggo would've done there...

No way he would have won last year.
Look at the parcours. It was really mountainous and there was only 42km of TT!
I don't think he would have beaten evans either, he was pretty invincible last year.

 

[The Hitch]

No way he would have won last year.
Look at the parcours. It was really mountainous and there was only 42km of TT!
I don't think he would have beaten evans either, he was pretty invincible last year.

Yeah I don't think wiggins had any real chance in 2011.

Especially when you consider what Contador did on Gap, only Samu and Evans were able to stay with his explosive attacks, andy lost over a minute, i really don't see how Wiggins could have stayed with those 3 on that climb, and that probably would have been enough for Evans for the tt alone.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

No way he would have won last year.
Look at the parcours. It was really mountainous and there was only 42km of TT!
I don't think he would have beaten evans either, he was pretty invincible last year.

Calm down, evans wasn't invincible. While I don't think there was a chance wiggo beat him last year, cadel had a lot of luck on his way to victory.

Crashes, Schleck stupidity, post-giro contador etc

 

[ferryman]

The Quiet Man, Deny Menchy seems to be nicely and quietly getting into GT form

 

[mb2612]

Cav doesn't need a train.

Cav needs people pulling back breaks every flat stage, because if Sky don't do that then they will find themselves very isolated.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

No Change in my prediction.
Wiggins will battle Evans for the top spot and Menchov/Kloden will try and get onto the podium.

 

[Panda Claws]

Cav doesn't need a train.

Cav needs people pulling back breaks every flat stage, because if Sky don't do that then they will find themselves very isolated.

This. Who will work only to get annihilated by Cavendish?

 

[Fetisoff]

This. Who will work only to get annihilated by Cavendish?

Lotto and Argos. Probably Greenedge too

 

[airstream]

Andy
Froome
Gesink

A revolution awaits us first of all in terms of the age of new big guns. Andy will play a role of a main revolutionary. Evans to appear in Basso's Giro plotline. Wiggins and Menchov to frustrate many people.

 

[jobiwan]

Andy
Froome
Gesink

A revolution awaits us first of all in terms of the age of new big guns. Andy will play a role of a main revolutionary. Evans to appear in Basso's Giro plotline. Wiggins and Menchov to frustrate many people.

I admire your optimism, but Evans is going to be up there. The only question is which climber will be trying to hang on in the time trial, if Evans isn't in the lead already.

I hope Andy wins, and that he has enough time built up this go around, but hold off on your revolution speak.

 

[Galic Ho]

looking forward to read an expert opinion from galic ho

Which stage? ITT? Flogged himself senseless. A month and a half too early. Andy Schleck said it best, perhaps he's peaked to early. Post your address and I will mail you some tissues for July when Wiggins shows he's goofed. Nobody did answer my question before about why Contador doesn't peak in June and flog himself. Nobody. Denial champ, you're in it. Watch body language. Evans wasn't going 100%, let alone near his peak condition. Wiggins by all measures, appears to be there. If AC can't do that, what makes anyone here think Wiggins, who is far less gifted, could do it? Fanboy love

Last nights stage? Didn't watch it. Nice reading the thread though. So Cadel, Hincapie, TJVG and Nibali all got time in a descent? Bahahaha. What have I been saying? Do this is in the last week of the Tour when Sky's awesome climbing talent of Porte are minutes behind and you'll see Wiggins crack on his own.

I also loved the comparison of BMC and Sky. They aren't the only two teams. Katusha will be there. What about JVDB and Vanendert? Don't think they can do some mess? Or what about Movistar? Wiggins couldn't beat Cobo over three weeks, as has been stated, winning a one week race proves jack $h%&. Add Valverde into the mix, Samu, Gesink...yeah, great insight and comments in this forum. It's the Sky show, where Sky is the centre piece.

I also loved the piece where Sky's great front riding from 2011 were illustrated by I think it was Maaaaarten in a picture of Wiggins on the ground. Memories!!! Wiggins shouldn't be peaking this early. It is a big warning sign. Irony is, Wiggins/Sky fans think he's winning some psychological war. Sorry, physiological trumps mental every time. If you don't have the juice, you won't have the moves regardless of how much you will yourself to do it.

 

[Galic Ho]

Privy? This is no insider info, lol. I just described what happened in the 2009 TDF. If you watched (and cared) you would have known half my post. The latter part of my post is based on TV interviews with Evans, Marc Sergeant and Marc Coucke.

Wow, so much insight. Go back to the threads on this forum from 2009. It has been well documented JVDB cryed and moaned behind the scenes at Lotto after the TTT. He was the one ****ed, not Evans. ****ed that he couldn't ride in a straight line and not touch a team mates wheel and that the team pushed on and left him whilst the no.2 rider from the previous year was gunning for a Yellow jersey with a very weak team. No brainer...leave him.

Leaving him was the turning point. Something happened in that team...as we all now know, the Belgians had superiority, foolishly and lost their best rider in the off season. A guy who went on to win the WC two months later. Smart move, no wonder the team split last season with such geniuses running the show.

 

[Galic Ho]

I should have been less harsh in my response. You may very well be right about Hushovd and his absence. I'm a big fan, but it could be he is having attitude issues or some other problem that causes him not to work for Evans. In which case leaving him off the team would be the right thing to do, and "viral infection" a face saving way of doing it.

Since we don't know that, however, and have no real reason to suppose it, I think we have to take the team at their word. In any case, the team paid for a whole lot of rider they are now not going to have in Evans' Tour effort, and there can't be anyone in their camp who's happy about it.

Edit: If Hesjedal wins the Tour . . . oh, but surely not. I'm still scratching my head over his Lance-approved Giro performance, but at least it was within the realm of the probable, if only barely. Winning the double would just be way over the top.

Thor has a big ego, a big mouth and load of big talent. He didn't get along famously at Garmin, but still did well. He's just off form. Oh and he's finally getting paid what he thinks he is worth. Perhaps it's made him lazy? Is the team happy about that? Nope, but their focus would be incorrectly used if they dwelt on Thor or Gilbert's less than ideal years. June/July, aim for Cadel at the Tour. I have no doubt BMC will. If Thor gets mad with whatever decision is made...suck it up princess should be the response. Send him to the Vuelta and tell him to focus on the Worlds.

Dan Martin was me joking...after his fall. Millar, Vande Velde, Zabriskie, etc are the climbing talent at Garmin. Farrar and Hushovd were there for stages. I know it will upset Thor, but he shouldn't be on the team if he's out of form. If on, I say take him. It's no worse than Sky taking Cav and Eisel. Heck, EBH is a mirror of Thor. Similar type of rider. He's useful no doubt. Send him up the road in a break, use him with Cadel on a descent. Not many here would think of that would they? It's an option if you get the timing and form right. Garmin will use Tommy D again this year. If Ryder is at the Tour, he'll be a domestique. There is no way he can double up. No way. Top 20, yes it's possible. Garmin will focus on Tommy D and use all their considerable resources to help him. If that goes wrong...stage hunt and set up Tyler.

 

[Galic Ho]

And yet you want time bonuses?

I want an incentive in place for more aggressive attacking rides. Defensive rides are boring for viewers. The guys praised and lauded for decades have been the guys who have a go and throw caution to the wind. I was watching some 2006 Tour footage last night. There were 20 second bonuses on some stages. I don't think that is needed, smaller, but give an incentive for people to attack. Also have the bonuses on only a few select stages. Hard stages.

I wasn't saying give everyone a dfferent time. Select stages. Uphill road...get your own time. Dangerous sprints, yes give everyone the same. But strung out stages where it isn't dangerous and is relatively flat, top 30 get same time, every 10 after that give them a second down. The last 3-4km have been brutal the past few years. Finishing back in 100th place over 10 seconds down should not get same time on paper as the guy punching it up front the entire last 3km and then winning the sprint. Or conversely, the GC staying amongst it should get a time gap on the dude schlebbing it back in 100th.

You'd be surprised how many races it would change the classification for. It would make a difference somewhere for someone. I understand the rules that exist are mostly for safety, but it wouldn't increase the risks. It would only act as a deterrent to stop laziness which I sadly see all the time. Boldness and bravery on the bike should get a bonus.

 

[Galic Ho]

Galic Ho, I handle Wiggo's prospect very reservedly because I don't think he is able to ride both climbs and time trials on equally high level for the win. In my view, it will be either something like in 2009 with slightly better TT (still not enough to win) or a cruel disappointment in the mountains because Wiggins hates when climbs are passed with multiple attacks and climbers can put unsolvable tasks in front of him. I just don't understand why you repent so much because of how many people vote for him. Surely all that is not without the influence of PR but mostly people vote for factual results Wiggo has in previous one and a half seasons.

lol, I thought everyone immediately catches that I'm not English native speaker. Well, at least it means I can be understood hehe. )

Ryder can easily hit top-10. Ivan would have been there if he hadn't been sick before the Pyrenees 2 years ago. Current Hesjedal is not weaker than that Basso.

I don't care if your English isn't amazing. Just like I don't care what your skin colour or nationality are...I'd prefer common sense is adhered to and double standard aren't applied to cyclists leading to a lack of insight and understanding. Oh and for the record, I use to criticize Evans strongly...don't need to anymore, he learnt from his mistakes. It just seems a lot of people are following hype. Hype is over rated. Severely overated. Form now, does not equal form in 6 weeks time. But people tend to forget that.

I find it interesting you mention 2009? That Tour was soft pedallled. It's been brought up on the forums a lot in the past. More particularly used in Lance discussions. If Andy Schleck climbs like that this year, there is no doubt if Wiggins on par is about where he was in relation to Andy's climbing ability, he will lose substantial time. Thus Andy's weak chrono is suddenly not so much of a weakness.

Alpe said it somewhere in the last 20+ pages, that this years ITT are not like the ones Indurain and Armstrong benefitted from. They were close to 200km at times, this year it's half that. 2007 distance roughly and the strongest riders were ironically the super climbers. Andy Schleck is being massively underestimated. AS you said, Wiggins likes a nice tempo...I don't see it happening. He will find on at least one day, he can't match the big climbers. What happens then will dictate how useful his time gains in a chrono really are.

Performance wise, yes he's better than last year. Timing is the special ingredient. I think he's timed it too early. Who knows why. 2012 has a lot of big British events happen. I'd lay it down to anticipation and expectations. Last year I though he might come in near 5th. This year, 3rd. That's if everything goes to plan. No stuff ups at all.

 

[TheEnoculator]

According to Wiggo, he's been training like a swimmer, so he's 95-97% all the time. IMHO, if he thinks he can win the Tour like that, he might be in for a surprise. Most riders going to the Tour are training to peak in July, so even though he might be ***** slapping his rivals now, the likes of Evans, Menchov and maybe even Schleck could overtake him when they peak a month from now. I guess we will see.

 

[Galic Ho]

Do you happen to be Wiggins's coach or his dad? Because it sure sound that way.
Wiggins knows what he is doing and I do not believe that your advice will change his mind.

I believe his old man died, years and years ago. I'm also younger than him. Unless I time travelled back in time, Terminator style and impregnated his mother Sarah Connor style...you get the picture. But maybe I did...his old man was Australian.

I'm hoping he keeps doing what he is doing. Contador doesn't do it and has more GT wins than Wiggins, what makes me think Brad is super special? That's what I've been challenging. The mindset you can run ballistic for months, win, win and win and still hold form when a superior rider has not done it. A rider who has won multiple GT's. The best GC rider of this generation. Does that compute with you?

Winning the Dauphine is not something which will effect him considerably more than all the other favorites as they will also be riding on the same levels on the climbs and it will only be in the TT where Wiggins may put in more effort. You seem to think all the favorites are Andy Schleck everybody goes for the Dauphine to an extent and winning it will give the favorite a necessary physchological boost for himself and over his rivals.

Rubbish champ. Hogwash and all that nice gooey stuff in between. When Andy Schleck or any other rider with superior climbing ability stretches their legs in the last week of the Tour, all your 'psychological boosts' will amount to nothing. Mental focus is not as vital as physical recovery. I 'don't think', ''I know the other riders are going for training to races in June. I am one of the few people around here who thinks Andy Schleck is just fine. More than fine. His record since 2008 suggests all is rosy. Wiggins? Nothing...historically it suggests yes he'll get mentioned as a favourite, but his performances are indicative of a guy not holding back. Who's been at peak or near enough for a long time. So to compare guys who aren't going all out against a guy who is, well take from that what you will. Perspective. Sky doesn't have it.

Evans champ is at 80-85%. That's how much improvement he has left. Wiggins won't improve. Worse, he has to hold that high level when he has NEVER done it before. We've seen Cadel peak too early, Basso, Valverde, they all fell short because of it. Menchov as well. Wiggins is not immune from that. Yet people still rave on. He has to prove it in July in the third week. He's following a super risky trend, one I said a superior rider called Alberto Contador does not do. They are not all riding at the same level in the Dauphine, because they are all not trying as hard. Their current fitness in relation to their maximal is not 100%. Wiggins is just on that if not already there. Nibali, Menchov, Cadel, JVDB...all are short of their best. If they reach it, 'IF', then Wiggins current form will mean little. It'll actually be a detriment holding it for so long.

The Sky scientists and coachs surely understand Bradley's physical strengths better than you and they will undoubtedly be monitoring Wiggins as they prepare for the Tour with minute details and so if they dont believe it is a problem to go for GC at the Dauphine for Wiggins i highly doubt it is.

Clearly they don't have a problem with it. Others do. Others who have won GT's...multiple. Sky still lost an almost unlosable GT last year. But cheerio for those faithful fans. Sky have not shown they know what they are doing in a GT GC wise. One week is not three weeks...don't forget that. Do get Sky to post Brad's undoped blood parameters. Or maybe than can post some like his sketchy 2009 figures...Sky aren't fooling anyone. You've been around long enough, you can put two and two together. It's bloody obvious what's going on...pun not intended.

Also what difference is it, whether a Brit is plastic or not?
Or rather what is the notion behind patriotism and supporting riders from one's own country?
Just because you are born on the same patch of land and yet you have nothing in common.
If you followed the Giro celebrations in Canada you would realise that the Canadians were a bit shocked when they realised that Hesjedal hasnt lived in Canada for a long, long time and yet they still support him and they still appreciate him and love him. Isnt the whole idea a bit ridiculous?
Yet fans still support riders who race under their country's flag regardless, for no particular reason asides from that they are racing under that flag, yet I fail to see the difference between supporting that fake nationality rider and a true rider, just as they were born on different patches of land?

As I stated, I used the term coined by a "British" journalist. It matters, not to me, but the British fans at home. Read the papers, the comments, many aren't too pleased that a cheque book is what sport has come down to. Nationality is used in a competitive environment to pool associated riders into a team, but nationality can be aribitarily assigned if you're a chance to medal/podium. Plastic Brits doesn't worry me. It worries the British. Look at how Andy Murray is treated...it' part of the greater British psyche. BTW, you're preaching to the converted. Australian...plenty of Aussies here who are adopted and born overseas. I don't give a damn, I actually like the ones who come out and openly embrace this country and representing the nation. Those people are to applauded. Lots of them. I look at everyone on a case by case basis. A local born native shouldn't at the last minute be slapped down so a foreigner who can potentially medal can compete after getting a free passport.

I dont really get your Murdoch reference he had all his assets with News int. which is British.
And also do you Australians not know that you are all actually British at root.
Here is what is says about you guys on Wikipedia:

Yeah, tell that to the 1 million plus people of Greek descent living in Australia. Or all those with Italian and Spanish names. The Germans and Eastern Europeans after WWII. The loads of Russian immigrants after WWI. Yeah bro, you believe that. My family, yes, immigrated way back in the early/mid 1800s from England, Scotland and Ireland...but this country has people from many nations living here. Surnames give it away. Two of my best friends were either born in or have relatives from China and Sri Lanka. They are the norm in some parts of Sydney. The traditionally 'white British derivate' is the harder to spot person. But you keep thinking that

News Corp btw, is the parent company. Was on the Aussie stock exchange, now you'll find it on the New York market. Moved almost a decade ago...6-7 years back from memory. The origins are Australian. Always have been.

 

[dlwssonic]

Calm down, evans wasn't invincible. While I don't think there was a chance wiggo beat him last year, cadel had a lot of luck on his way to victory.

Crashes, Schleck stupidity, post-giro contador etc

Given the situation. He looked very strong on the mountains, descends and TT.
Of course he was in the form of his life though.

 

[dlwssonic]

According to Wiggo, he's been training like a swimmer, so he's 95-97% all the time. IMHO, if he thinks he can win the Tour like that, he might be in for a surprise. Most riders going to the Tour are training to peak in July, so even though he might be ***** slapping his rivals now, the likes of Evans, Menchov and maybe even Schleck could overtake him when they peak a month from now. I guess we will see.

lololol I will like to see how that works come July. You gotta be 100% at the tour.

 

[Maxiton]

I believe his old man died, years and years ago. I'm also younger than him. Unless I time travelled back in time, Terminator style and impregnated his mother Sarah Connor style...you get the picture. But maybe I did...his old man was Australian.

I'm hoping he keeps doing what he is doing. Contador doesn't do it and has more GT wins than Wiggins, what makes me think Brad is super special? That's what I've been challenging. The mindset you can run ballistic for months, win, win and win and still hold form when a superior rider has not done it. A rider who has won multiple GT's. The best GC rider of this generation. Does that compute with you?



Rubbish champ. Hogwash and all that nice gooey stuff in between. When Andy Schleck or any other rider with superior climbing ability stretches their legs in the last week of the Tour, all your 'psychological boosts' will amount to nothing. Mental focus is not as vital as physical recovery. I 'don't think', ''I know the other riders are going for training to races in June. I am one of the few people around here who thinks Andy Schleck is just fine. More than fine. His record since 2008 suggests all is rosy. Wiggins? Nothing...historically it suggests yes he'll get mentioned as a favourite, but his performances are indicative of a guy not holding back. Who's been at peak or near enough for a long time. So to compare guys who aren't going all out against a guy who is, well take from that what you will. Perspective. Sky doesn't have it.

Evans champ is at 80-85%. That's how much improvement he has left. Wiggins won't improve. Worse, he has to hold that high level when he has NEVER done it before. We've seen Cadel peak too early, Basso, Valverde, they all fell short because of it. Menchov as well. Wiggins is not immune from that. Yet people still rave on. He has to prove it in July in the third week. He's following a super risky trend, one I said a superior rider called Alberto Contador does not do. They are not all riding at the same level in the Dauphine, because they are all not trying as hard. Their current fitness in relation to their maximal is not 100%. Wiggins is just on that if not already there. Nibali, Menchov, Cadel, JVDB...all are short of their best. If they reach it, 'IF', then Wiggins current form will mean little. It'll actually be a detriment holding it for so long.



Clearly they don't have a problem with it. Others do. Others who have won GT's...multiple. Sky still lost an almost unlosable GT last year. But cheerio for those faithful fans. Sky have not shown they know what they are doing in a GT GC wise. One week is not three weeks...don't forget that. Do get Sky to post Brad's undoped blood parameters. Or maybe than can post some like his sketchy 2009 figures...Sky aren't fooling anyone. You've been around long enough, you can put two and two together. It's bloody obvious what's going on...pun not intended.



As I stated, I used the term coined by a "British" journalist. It matters, not to me, but the British fans at home. Read the papers, the comments, many aren't too pleased that a cheque book is what sport has come down to. Nationality is used in a competitive environment to pool associated riders into a team, but nationality can be aribitarily assigned if you're a chance to medal/podium. Plastic Brits doesn't worry me. It worries the British. Look at how Andy Murray is treated...it' part of the greater British psyche. BTW, you're preaching to the converted. Australian...plenty of Aussies here who are adopted and born overseas. I don't give a damn, I actually like the ones who come out and openly embrace this country and representing the nation. Those people are to applauded. Lots of them. I look at everyone on a case by case basis. A local born native shouldn't at the last minute be slapped down so a foreigner who can potentially medal can compete after getting a free passport.



Yeah, tell that to the 1 million plus people of Greek descent living in Australia. Or all those with Italian and Spanish names. The Germans and Eastern Europeans after WWII. The loads of Russian immigrants after WWI. Yeah bro, you believe that. My family, yes, immigrated way back in the early/mid 1800s from England, Scotland and Ireland...but this country has people from many nations living here. Surnames give it away. Two of my best friends were either born in or have relatives from China and Sri Lanka. They are the norm in some parts of Sydney. The traditionally 'white British derivate' is the harder to spot person. But you keep thinking that

News Corp btw, is the parent company. Was on the Aussie stock exchange, now you'll find it on the New York market. Moved almost a decade ago...6-7 years back from memory. The origins are Australian. Always have been.

You know, I was just thinking today at work about Wiggins form and the need to peak toward the last week of the Tour. I came here to point it out, but I see you've got it handled, and handled well.

It's hard to believe Wiggins can hold his form throughout the Tour, or, if he does, that his form will match what some of the others will dish out when they peak. Should be interesting to watch.