Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[greenedge]

Post your address and I will mail you some tissues for July when Wiggins shows he's goofed.

@Airstream goes for Andy.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

And then sometimes he does not- the TDF this year will see a very strong sprinting field and most times Cav is reassured by the fact his team has been doing work for him for 50km or so.

Last year when Farrar won that is evidence of his lead out wrong and Cav losing. This year a weakened lead out will result in a few more upsets for Cav and a more outspoken Cav. There is enough depth in the sprinting field this year to ensure that Cav will not win as many stages as usual.

Last year when Farrar won is evidence that when someone crashes in to him in the final corner and gives Farrar a 50 yard lead with a leadout, Farrar can win by 25 yards.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

No one was saying they are a bad team.
Sky along with BMC do have some of the highest paid cyclists in their team.

Wiggins would be a bit lower than Evans, Cav should be on more than Hushovd/ Gilbert and they also have Froome, EBH and had to lure Porte away.

Overall Sky would have spent more on their cyclists ( Flecha, Eisel and a few others could be leaders in their own rights )- than BMC.

To be fair, at least they have a much better team to show for it.

 

[Gloin22]

No one was saying they are a bad team.
Sky along with BMC do have some of the highest paid cyclists in their team.

Wiggins would be a bit lower than Evans, Cav should be on more than Hushovd/ Gilbert and they also have Froome, EBH and had to lure Porte away.

Overall Sky would have spent more on their cyclists ( Flecha, Eisel and a few others could be leaders in their own rights )- than BMC.

Sky is about 6th/7th team in the WT team's budget

Wiggins is paid 2.3 Million and Cav 2.4 Million.

EBH and Froome I would guess are around 1-1.5 Million. Flecha is much less as he's much older.

Porte ? He didnt show much in 2011 and only GE fought for him. He said GE made better offer, but he preffered Sky.

This happend same with OPQS. Cav was offered 4 Million by OPQS but went to Sky for 2.4 Million.

Rabo outbidbed Sky quite easily for Renshaw too as another example.

 

[Galic Ho]

Senseless to think that Wiggins needs over peak to destoy everyone in TT this way. It's almost guaranteed he'll do the first 42k TT very strongly as well. Can he ride it even better? I don't think so. But Evans will in no way be able to improve drastically. Menchov just eliminated himself from the list of the contenders for the win at all. He has nothing at the expense of what he might win. But saying "flogged himself senseless" in beyond me.


Surely, cos, unlike you, no one has a monosemantic opinion on such overly disputable matters. Probably, you are a sport medicine specialist or something like that?

Seems like you are slowly but surely approaching "Wiggins is a rider of an amateur level". )

You said it not me. Just remember that..."Wiggins is a rider of an amateur level." Nice suggestion dude but that's stretching it a little too far.

I also like the 'rolleyes' expression you used. If you opened your eyes you'd have noticed by now one can gauge how hard a particular rider is going by body language. Hardest thing to cover up and mask to your opponents. Very few riders can fox or kite their oponents. Wiggins isn't one of them. Neither is Evans. When he is struggling it's obvious. When he is going really hard it's clear. Same with Wiggins. Brad's chrono the other day...he was hitting his max or there abouts. Cadel...not even close. As I said, if you pay attention, you'd notice Cadel has a number of tells. Sweats like a pig, slobbering at the mouth, cadence seems disjointed and un-rhythmic. Signs it's hard for him and he's struggling. Cadel's body language was clear he was cruising. Yes, putting in effort, but not maximal. He's not even close. Brad can't say that. Hasn't been saying it in his press jabberings.

I just checked the news section of this site. No articles on Menchov. WTF are you talking about? How is he not a contender? Has he said something and cyclingnews is slow to report? Has Katusha written him off? Medical issue? Or is it something else you think is a sign he'll be no good? Unless I see an official news article on it, he's still a big contender for the maillot jaune in Paris.

 

[Galic Ho]

@Airstream goes for Andy.

And he's talking about Wiggins? WTF is he smoking?

In case he hasn't noticed I'm one of the few people who has been stating Andy Schleck is IMO a greater chance of winning the Tour than Wiggins. By some margin. Sheesh...he needs to get with the program. Madness. Madness

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Sheesh...he needs to get with the program.

That's clinic talk, no?

 

[Galic Ho]

That's clinic talk, no?

With Wiggins form this year honestly every thread should be in the clinic that mentions his name. No joke. Armstrong himself couldn't script it any better even with Ferrari at the pointy end of the story pulling the right strings.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

With Wiggins form this year honestly every thread should be in the clinic that mentions his name. No joke. Armstrong himself couldn't script it any better even with Ferrari at the pointy end of the story pulling the right strings.

So not to derail this thread I will (re)quote you in the 'The holistic powers of Tenerife thread'...

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

And now I have enough of arguing with Sky fanboys, I'll come back tomorrow after we have a more clear indication of Wiggins descending skills.

Well, not quite as crap as I'd thought. He might struggle a little bit in the TDF in this area if Nibali and Samu get in shape + Evans, but he isn't going to lose a lot in there, my bad.

 

[cineteq]

So not to derail this thread I will (re)quote you in the 'The holistic powers of Tenerife thread'...

I'm on my way there now...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Well, not quite as crap as I'd thought. He might struggle a little bit in the TDF in this area if Nibali and Samu get in shape + Evans, but he isn't going to lose a lot in there, my bad.

Still you would hope that the crop of the cream could isolate wiggins from his team mates at le tour and make things more intersting...
This race had very little competitive opposition. Simply not an indication IMO.

Anyway if wiggo does win le tour, he will quite easily be the dullest winner in recent memory. I lol'd hard when Harmon called wiggo an aggressive rider.

 

[Forunculo]

My problem with Sky is not Wiggins but Porte, Rogers and Froome lock the race

Evans can't challenge sky at mountains, perhaps descents and puncheur stages are the key, and the only one with a strong team is Andy... Andy better to look another goal this season since 3 weeks aren't enough to get the form he needs.


I didn' like Wiggo and Sky but I had little hope on Evans and none on Andy. The rest Nibali, Sanchez, VDB, Menchov are not in the same league

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Well, not quite as crap as I'd thought. He might struggle a little bit in the TDF in this area if Nibali and Samu get in shape + Evans, but he isn't going to lose a lot in there, my bad.

My problem with Sky is not Wiggins but Porte, Rogers and Froome lock the race

Evans can't challenge sky at mountains, perhaps descents and puncheur stages are the key, and the only one with a strong team is Andy... Andy better to look another goal this season since 3 weeks aren't enough to get the form he needs.


I didn' like Wiggo and Sky but I had little hope on Evans and none on Andy. The rest Nibali, Sanchez, VDB, Menchov are not in the same league

Meh really what the others have to do is try and isolate wiggo, ride the race on their terms. Simply allowing sky to take control is not the way to go, and I would hope it doesn't come to this.

 

[dlwssonic]

Don't worry when the real action starts in le tour. Wiggins will be isolated except for froome maybe.

 

[cineteq]

The rest Nibali, Sanchez, VDB, Menchov are not in the same league

These guys will be closer at the start of the TdF, and Wiggins might be on his way down, peaking that is. In a way, Nibali's bad TT makes more sense now, as he's still building up.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Meh really what the others have to do is try and isolate wiggo, ride the race on their terms. Simply allowing sky to take control is not the way to go, and I would hope it doesn't come to this.

If Sky have 4 men who can ride 6W/Kilo up longish climbs, how exactly do you get rid of them without destroying yourself.

I just can't see anyone attacking on a penultimate climb taking sufficient time to make it worthwhile without putting themselves in the red and dying on the last climb.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If Sky have 4 men who can ride 6W/Kilo up longish climbs, how exactly do you get rid of them without destroying yourself.

I just can't see anyone attacking on a penultimate climb taking sufficient time to make it worthwhile without putting themselves in the red and dying on the last climb.

If you think sky are going to be able to ride up every mountain in tact your mistaken. If they ride (opposition), it will come to times where it is Mano a Mano (and it will at times no doubt)

But please keep drawing conclusions from a race which provided practically no opposition, I have no doubt this is how it will pan out in July

 

[dlwssonic]

If you think sky are going to be able to ride up every mountain in tact your mistaken. If they ride (opposition), it will come to times where it is Mano a Mano (and it will at times no doubt)

But please keep drawing conclusions from a race which provided practically no opposition, I have no doubt this is how it will pan out in July

+1.
Sometimes I think some of the wiggins fans, haven't watched the tour before.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If you think sky are going to be able to ride up every mountain in tact your mistaken. If they ride (opposition), it will come to times where it is Mano a Mano (and it will at times no doubt)

But please keep drawing conclusions from a race which provided practically no opposition, I have no doubt this is how it will pan out in July

You're going to need to give this strawman final line of yours a rest. I keep posting that I think Wiggins will probably not win, but apparently no one is reading it.

In any case, the mountain train method is the most efficient way to get up and down a climb, so if you want to beat it you have to be physically superior by some margin.

I have no doubt that in the last 5km of each climb it will be every man for himself and Wiggins will succeed or fail on his own merits. I am just disputing the idea that a top favourite is doing themselves a favour by trying to go 35km from the finish on a penultimate climb.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You're going to need to give this strawman final line of yours a rest. I keep posting that I think Wiggins will probably not win, but apparently no one is reading it.

In any case, the mountain train method is the most efficient way to get up and down a climb, so if you want to beat it you have to be physically superior by some margin.

I have no doubt that in the last 5km of each climb it will be every man for himself and Wiggins will succeed or fail on his own merits. I am just disputing the idea that a top favourite is doing themselves a favour by trying to go 35km from the finish on a penultimate climb.

Depends really, it can work but more often then not I agree with that summarize. They say this route is pro-long attacks, but m not sure either... Maybe for the desperate, but it will more then likely result in self destruction with a team in control behind.

Obviously my point was more referred to final climb tactics and isolating wiggo.

As for the strawman thing, obviously different understanding of the conversation on that one, but my point stands that I don't think sky are as invincible as so many think, and the last post which I quoted was inline with said beliefs. Sky will not have it all there way.

 

[Forunculo]

If Sky have 4 men who can ride 6W/Kilo up longish climbs, how exactly do you get rid of them without destroying yourself.

I just can't see anyone attacking on a penultimate climb taking sufficient time to make it worthwhile without putting themselves in the red and dying on the last climb.

This

If Wiggo put the hammer on TT and Sky can produce an UK postal on the french climbs (easier than italian and spanish ones) the only weak point will be descends. Nibali can descend, Evans can TT and Andy can climb for example but overall Wiggo has a stronger team.


Perhaps 3rd week is his weaknees, and the likes Cobo. Gesink, Valverde or Frank can ambush Sky on one stage but it's unlikely to take much time

 

[mastersracer]

+1.
Sometimes I think some of the wiggins fans, haven't watched the tour before.

or maybe they watched too many Armstrong tours when his team did exactly this...

 

[airstream]

Sometimes I think some of the wiggins fans, haven't watched the tour before.

It can be referred to Evans fans partially too.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

or maybe they watched too many Armstrong tours when his team did exactly this...

so in summary sky are doped up to their eyeballs? cool.