Well Cunego won a Grand Tour! Scarponi didn't. I agree that Scarponi might be in the Top 5 at the Giro this year. But I would be suprised if he would be able t win it.
The Vuelta field seems to be pretty weak this year. Contador, Valverde, Rodriguez, Froome, Wiggins are going to peak for the Tour and even a young prospect like Quintana might be tired after being superdomestique for Valverde in France. That left guys like Anton or Cobo (and these two are pretty inconstant) as main favorites, maybe Uran or Henao and maybe Sanchez and/or Gesink. Yeah against these guys, and a course with ramps just at the end of each mountain stage Cunego would be able to score big in my opinion! Remember 2004?
But I think too he will do the Tour