Who will win 2015 Ronde van Vlaanderen?

[FoxxyBrown1111]

but must of all -I'd love to see an outsider win it to screw up the bookies

How is that gonna go to happen? Rhetorical. It´s not. No matter who wins*.
If you find a "value" bet on a 1/50 outsider, be sure that less than 2% of the total wagered amount is on that rider. It´s simple math. Same goes with the top favos. If the GThomas odds are at 1/2, be sure that less than 50% of the money is on him...

(* Assuming the race isnt fixed and birds run in at the last second to drop heavy doses of money on a outsider, and the bookies cant adjust their odds in time)

 

[shalgo]

Re:

Is Gilbert even racing?

Not according to the Steephill startlist and everything else I have seen. Though with so many of the favorites out of the race or off form, I wonder if he is wishing that he had planned on racing it this year.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Is Gilbert even racing?

Not according to the Steephill startlist and everything else I have seen. Though with so many of the favorites out of the race or off form, I wonder if he is wishing that he had planned on racing it this year.

Agree with the last part. I didn't read the startlist tho. So should I vote for Vino

 

[Archibald]

Re:

Is the poll as broken for you guys as it is for me?

yep, can't vote 'vino'...

wanting GVA to win

 

[Lexman]

Re:

Is Gilbert even racing?

no he's not...

 

[del1962]

Hope it is one of G, Sepp and Sagan in that order.

Like to see Rowe or Stannard top ten aswell

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs to hope that a group of around 10 gets away from everyone else. If he is in a smaller group he won't win because he has to contribute so much energy to maintaining the gap...To many things have to go right for him to win. I would love it if he did win but I really don't think he'll manage.

Sagan only has to contribute a lot if others are up the road. If he's in the lead group he can easily play the game of "You guys do it and go for the win, I can hang on or wait for the bunch and still have a shot". If others are up the road from the same team then no one will drag him there, so he needs to make sure he picks the right group.

It's Flanders, not Milan-Sanremo, at most it's going to be a small bunch sprint at the end and Sagan will always be one of the favourites for that. He needs to ride smarter than he has been doing but really this is probably the monument he has the best chance of winning.

Sagan doesnt play it like this,unfortunately for him.He will attack like others

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs to hope that a group of around 10 gets away from everyone else. If he is in a smaller group he won't win because he has to contribute so much energy to maintaining the gap...To many things have to go right for him to win. I would love it if he did win but I really don't think he'll manage.

Sagan only has to contribute a lot if others are up the road. If he's in the lead group he can easily play the game of "You guys do it and go for the win, I can hang on or wait for the bunch and still have a shot". If others are up the road from the same team then no one will drag him there, so he needs to make sure he picks the right group.

It's Flanders, not Milan-Sanremo, at most it's going to be a small bunch sprint at the end and Sagan will always be one of the favourites for that. He needs to ride smarter than he has been doing but really this is probably the monument he has the best chance of winning.

Sagan doesnt play it like this,unfortunately for him.He will attack like others

He needs to learn to if he wants to win the big races.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Sagan needs to hope that a group of around 10 gets away from everyone else. If he is in a smaller group he won't win because he has to contribute so much energy to maintaining the gap...To many things have to go right for him to win. I would love it if he did win but I really don't think he'll manage.

Sagan only has to contribute a lot if others are up the road. If he's in the lead group he can easily play the game of "You guys do it and go for the win, I can hang on or wait for the bunch and still have a shot". If others are up the road from the same team then no one will drag him there, so he needs to make sure he picks the right group.

It's Flanders, not Milan-Sanremo, at most it's going to be a small bunch sprint at the end and Sagan will always be one of the favourites for that. He needs to ride smarter than he has been doing but really this is probably the monument he has the best chance of winning.

Sagan doesnt play it like this,unfortunately for him.He will attack like others

He needs to learn to if he wants to win the big races.

Thats true,thats why I won't bet a single penny on him.My favourites are Sep,Terpstra and maybe Gva

 

[UselessToo]

Terpstra or GvA

 

[Oliver]

Thomas vs Styby

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Thomas vs Styby

Im not sure about Styby,his result from De Ronde are way worse than from P-R.Why did you pick him?

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

Thomas vs Styby

Im not sure about Styby,his result from De Ronde are way worse than from P-R.Why did you pick him?

It always takes a bit more experience to ride well in Flanders than PR. Look at Boonen and Cancellara for example.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Thomas vs Styby

Im not sure about Styby,his result from De Ronde are way worse than from P-R.Why did you pick him?

It always takes a bit more experience to ride well in Flanders than PR. Look at Boonen and Cancellara for example.

And are you saying that Stybar does or doesn't have the necessary experience?

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

Thomas vs Styby

Im not sure about Styby,his result from De Ronde are way worse than from P-R.Why did you pick him?

It always takes a bit more experience to ride well in Flanders than PR. Look at Boonen and Cancellara for example.

And are you saying that Stybar does or doesn't have the necessary experience?

I'm trying to explain why I think Stybar has had better results in PR than in De Ronde so far.

Personally I believe that Stybar has what it takes to win this year. He is amongst the top favourites with Thomas, Vanmarcke and Kristoff.

 

[Jancouver]

Stybar recently admitted that in his first two additions his positioning was not ideal but I have a feeling that he is pretty smart and realized his weaknesses and with enough luck he should do much better this year.

Google translate:

This year I feel that during classics I can move in the group much better. I know where I need to be in front on the first or second position and vice versa where I can eat in peace and do not to push, because when we have 100 kilometers to go being a 40th rider is enough. Last year, I still pushed forward even in the moments when it was not necessary, then I'm on the contrary, in critical passages I thought being at the tenth position was enough for me - and I was actually too far back. These are the details that you are missing. After all, this is my only the third season on the classics, in every race I learn something.

Styby to out-sprint Sagan for the win

 

[nayr497]

It would be awesome to see Sep win this. After his near-wins and strong riding in many races, the guy would be a great winner.

Stybar
Kristoff
Thomas

All riding really well, will be interesting to see if Kristoff can get over some of the climbs.

 

[Pantani_lives]

*****Vanmarcke, Thomas, Stybar
****Terpstra, Vandenbergh
***Kristoff, Sagan
**Devolder, Van Avermaet, Roelandts, Degenkolb, Stannard
*Boom, Oss, Chavanel, Pozzato, Paolini

 

[Bushman]

You seriously cannot give Vandenbergh 4 stars and even rate him above Kristoff.

Aside from that I think your ratings are quite good. I would probably give Degenkolb 3 stars, but that is just because I have a feeling he will be really good. I would also consider giving Kristoff 4 stars.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

**** Thomas
*** Sagan, Terpstra, Stybar
** Vanmarcke, Kristoff, Degenkolb
* Van Avermaet, Roelandts, Devolder, Paolini

Vanmarcke is probably way stronger but he just doesn't have any winner instinct. He is like the modern Boogerd

 

[ProTes]

Sep. should just copy a Cancellara move and then be safe for the win

 

[danielovichdk2]

Stannard is taking this one.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Stannard is taking this one.

Ha no way! First off he'll be supporting Thomas - 2nd even if he was the protected rider Flanders is too hard for him.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Stannard is taking this one.

Ha no way! First off he'll be supporting Thomas - 2nd even if he was the protected rider Flanders is too hard for him.

And he hasn't fully recovered from his fall at MSR

 

[Poursuivant]

Terpstra, Thomas, and Vanmarcke to battle it out with Terpstra taking the spoils, methinks.