Who will win Il Lombardia?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

For me Chaves is the big favorite. Aru has to finish alone which will be hard. Dunno how Bardet is in a sprint against Chaves..
Poels if he is on a super day could sprint better, which is a big if, he might drop 100km before the finish as well.

 

[Valv.Piti]

No mentions of Valverde and Quintana? Quintana went back to Europe for a reason.

Im going to go with Aru tho. Will save his season somewhat like Nibs in 2016!

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

With the fastest sprinter missing (Valverde), I'd say Dan Martin if it comes down to 4-8 riders sprinting for the win.

Can't see anyone of the above mentioned beating Martin in a flat sprint.

Urán is faster than Dan Martin. So's Rui Costa, should he be in that 4-8 riders group.

What basis is there for saying that Uran is faster than anybody at all in a flat sprint? The guy has won about four stages/one day races in his career not counting TTs and none of them were in a sprint. If he actually has a sprint like Martin or Costa he's been doing shockingly badly at using it to win.

Two of his wins were from attacks near the finish where he outwitted sprinters, but that's not evidence that he is a fast sprinter himself. I don't think a rider who has been a pro for nearly a decade without winning a small group sprint can be talked about as a fast sprinter.

And when Martin won a flat sprint?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

And when Martin won a flat sprint?

Martin has won from small groups with all kinds of run ins. He's obviously better if the final charge is uphill, but give him a group of other climbers and unless Valverde is there, he can win (eg his Vuelta stage win, which was a slightly downhill finish). But I'm less interested in assessing Martin's sprint than Uran's one because I just don't see how Uran has any kind of record as a small group sprinter.

Uran has never won a race where he came to the finish with anyone else in his whole career. Not once and he's been a pro for a decade. He has never won a sprint of any kind, uphill, downhill, flat, big group, small group, whatever. He wins very few road races at all. If he has a small group finish at the level of a Costa or a Martin then he's a big underachiever and really should have accomplished more with his set of skills.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

With the fastest sprinter missing (Valverde), I'd say Dan Martin if it comes down to 4-8 riders sprinting for the win.

Can't see anyone of the above mentioned beating Martin in a flat sprint.

Urán is faster than Dan Martin. So's Rui Costa, should he be in that 4-8 riders group.

What basis is there for saying that Uran is faster than anybody at all in a flat sprint? The guy has won about four stages/one day races in his career not counting TTs and none of them were in a sprint. If he actually has a sprint like Martin or Costa he's been doing shockingly badly at using it to win.

Two of his wins were from attacks near the finish where he outwitted sprinters, but that's not evidence that he is a fast sprinter himself. I don't think a rider who has been a pro for nearly a decade without winning a small group sprint can be talked about as a fast sprinter.

And when Martin won a flat sprint?

Froome's first stage win this year in the Tour. Martin won the flat sprint for 2nd (and 6 bonus seconds).

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

And when Martin won a flat sprint?

Martin has won from small groups with all kinds of run ins. He's obviously better if the final charge is uphill, but give him a group of other climbers and unless Valverde is there, he can win (eg his Vuelta stage win, which was a slightly downhill finish). But I'm less interested in assessing Martin's sprint than Uran's one because I just don't see how Uran has any kind of record as a small group sprinter.

Uran has never won a race where he came to the finish with anyone else in his whole career. Not once and he's been a pro for a decade. He has never won a sprint of any kind, uphill, downhill, flat, big group, small group, whatever. He wins very few road races at all. If he has a small group finish at the level of a Costa or a Martin then he's a big underachiever and really should have accomplished more with his set of skills.

Urán won a reduced bunch sprint in volta a Catalunya in 2012, though the competition was laughable. But agreed that Martin is (a bit) faster even in a flat sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

If it goes to the last climb it's Martin vs Alaphillipe.

Oh and maybe Valverde. But I believe there's reason to doubt his freshness, but I guess we'll know more after Milan Torino

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

If it goes to the last climb it's Martin vs Alaphillipe. Strange that Valverde doesn't seem to be riding

I doubt they will attack each other, though.

 

[Alexandre B.]

I also am curious about Gallopin. He was 7th last year and his climbing form was pretty good lately, as seen in San Sebastian. If he survives the hardest part, he'll be contesting.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

If it goes to the last climb it's Martin vs Alaphillipe. Strange that Valverde doesn't seem to be riding

There were so many riders better than Dan Martin on Bergamo Alta in 2014, I don't think it's a given that it is among him and Alaphillipe should it boil down to that last effort. Bergamo Alta is a nice climb, despite looking relatively short on the profile it is a hellish drag that seems to take forever. Anyone can break away there. Tim Wellens was the strongest there two years ago with quite some margin, considering he had been on the attack from the bottom of the hill.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

And when Martin won a flat sprint?

Martin has won from small groups with all kinds of run ins. He's obviously better if the final charge is uphill, but give him a group of other climbers and unless Valverde is there, he can win (eg his Vuelta stage win, which was a slightly downhill finish). But I'm less interested in assessing Martin's sprint than Uran's one because I just don't see how Uran has any kind of record as a small group sprinter.

Uran has never won a race where he came to the finish with anyone else in his whole career. Not once and he's been a pro for a decade. He has never won a sprint of any kind, uphill, downhill, flat, big group, small group, whatever. He wins very few road races at all. If he has a small group finish at the level of a Costa or a Martin then he's a big underachiever and really should have accomplished more with his set of skills.

Daniel Martin is pretty good in uphill sprinting, yet on the flat he's nowhere near that, he's decent at best, and he is not faster than Rigoberto Uran, who is also decent sprinter on the flat for a climber. I can't see much difference between them in flat sprinting.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Uran is a very weird case. He lacks the explosiveness in an uphill sprint and acceleration on a short steep climb. But in a reduced flat sprint, he is actually pretty decent.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Uran is a very weird case. He lacks the explosiveness in an uphill sprint and acceleration on a short steep climb. But in a reduced flat sprint, he is actually pretty decent.

That's not really unusual in cycling. There are plenty of riders who can be described the same way, Talansky for example.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Uran is a very weird case. He lacks the explosiveness in an uphill sprint and acceleration on a short steep climb. But in a reduced flat sprint, he is actually pretty decent.

That's not really unusual in cycling. There are plenty of riders who can be described the same way, Talansky for example.

Uran has never won a race where he came to the finish with anyone else in his whole career. Not once and he's been a pro for a decade. He has never won a sprint of any kind, uphill, downhill, flat, big group, small group, whatever. He wins very few road races at all. If he has a small group finish at the level of a Costa or a Martin then he's a big underachiever and really should have accomplished more with his set of skills.

He might be kind of underachiever, but I gave you 2 examples when Uran won flat sprints for 2nd place from 2015 alone.

Here's a video of one of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKOau5uNqPg#t=86m33s

 

[Velolover2]

Uran's "flat reduced sprint" record. (All I could find)

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Giro_Italia_2012_Stage_16_Cortina_d_Ampezzo
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Tirreno_Adriatico_2015_Stage_4_Castelraimondo
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Giro_Italia_2014_Stage_5_Viggiano
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Volta_Ciclista_a_Catalunya_2015_Stage_5_Valls

Not that bad.

 

[Velolover2]

Ok, the third was actually uphill.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Ok, the third was actually uphill.

Very slightly though. It was 4 or 5 per cent I think

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Ok, the third was actually uphill.

Very slightly though. It was 4 or 5 per cent I think

Correct. Enough to be called "flat" since there was no gaps and about 30 riders survived it.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Dumoulin

 

[42x16ss]

I think the winner will come from Orica.

They really aren't messing around here, they're sending Chaves, 2 x Yates, Verona, Albasini, Howson, Meier and Haig.

Some serious firepower there.

 

[claude cat]

Re:

I think the winner will come from Orica.

They really aren't messing around here, they're sending Chaves, 2 x Yates, Verona, Albasini, Howson, Meier and Haig.

Some serious firepower there.

That's just about every card they have to play.
Not sure that the Yates twins are in the right sort of form to win it, but they could certainly animate the race.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

I think the winner will come from Orica.

They really aren't messing around here, they're sending Chaves, 2 x Yates, Verona, Albasini, Howson, Meier and Haig.

Some serious firepower there.

It's a seriously strong team, and in Chavez they have a guy who's in top form. The Yates twins are a bit of an unknown in terms of form. but it would be no surprise to see them involved and animate the race if there's big selections.

 

[Bardamu]

Re:

Dumoulin

He hasn't really shown his qualities (yet) in one-day races.

 

[DFA123]

I'll go with Simon Yates. Was on great form in the Vuelta, and will still be relatively fresh thanks to his ban. Difficult to rule out GVA on current form though as well.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

With the fastest sprinter missing (Valverde), I'd say Dan Martin if it comes down to 4-8 riders sprinting for the win.


Can't see anyone of the above mentioned beating Martin in a flat sprint.

Urán is faster than Dan Martin. So's Rui Costa, should he be in that 4-8 riders group.

Uran is not very slow...but dan martin is much faster..he has won already Lombardia at the spring twice.

Anyway I cant see and sprint this year with this amazing hard route...maybe 2 or 3 riders, but likely just one.