Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

[Zinoviev Letter]

I’m not saying that Haig will be able to control attacks from Lopez etc. That will depend on many things, relative recovery, the point at which attacks come in earnest, whether he’s had to work for a long time already etc. I’m saying that the central premise of the train tactic that has dominated GT climbing for a long time now is that the controlling domestique doesn’t have to be as strong as rival leaders in order to ride too fast for them to get away without blowing up. You only need a Poels - ie an actual climbing peer or near peer of the main attackers - as the last domestique. That in theory is what Adam is there for.

Where MS are lacking, in my view, isn’t in the strength of their last two doms. It’s the rest of them. If Haig has to work from a long way out, the gap between his level and that of say a Lopez becomes all too relevant. Tomorrow may be a one climb stage but it’s a long climb.

(Now that I’ve said all that, Haig will probably show me up by getting dropped straight away)

 

[42x16ss]

I’m not saying that Haig will be able to control attacks from Lopez etc. That will depend on many things, relative recovery, the point at which attacks come in earnest, whether he’s had to work for a long time already etc. I’m saying that the central premise of the train tactic that has dominated GT climbing for a long time now is that the controlling domestique doesn’t have to be as strong as rival leaders in order to ride too fast for them to get away without blowing up. You only need a Poels - ie an actual climbing peer or near peer of the main attackers - as the last domestique. That in theory is what Adam is there for.

Where MS are lacking, in my view, isn’t in the strength of their last two doms. It’s the rest of them. If Haig has to work from a long way out, the gap between his level and that of say a Lopez becomes all too relevant. Tomorrow may be a one climb stage but it’s a long climb.

(Now that I’ve said all that, Haig will probably show me up by getting dropped straight away)

Good points, because the only other rider they have who can climb is Howson and they’ve been using him quite hard. I hope for the team’s sake Adam is as fresh as White says because he’s going to get tested Friday and Saturday.

 

[Sciatic]

I’m not saying that Haig will be able to control attacks from Lopez etc. That will depend on many things, relative recovery, the point at which attacks come in earnest, whether he’s had to work for a long time already etc. I’m saying that the central premise of the train tactic that has dominated GT climbing for a long time now is that the controlling domestique doesn’t have to be as strong as rival leaders in order to ride too fast for them to get away without blowing up. You only need a Poels - ie an actual climbing peer or near peer of the main attackers - as the last domestique. That in theory is what Adam is there for.

Where MS are lacking, in my view, isn’t in the strength of their last two doms. It’s the rest of them. If Haig has to work from a long way out, the gap between his level and that of say a Lopez becomes all too relevant. Tomorrow may be a one climb stage but it’s a long climb.

(Now that I’ve said all that, Haig will probably show me up by getting dropped straight away)

Well put. It should be entertaining regardless—even if there’s not tons of action, there will be plenty of suspense as to how the next two stages will unfold. Going to have to be a bit late to work those days!

 

[Bolder]

The best strategy for Yates is to watch Valverde like a hawk today (and maybe tomorrow). Train tactics only work if you've got 3-4 strong domestiques (or one Kwiatkowski...)

It doesn't matter if Lopez/SK/Mas etc take off at a certain point. If any one of them gets a serious gap and Valverde looks to be weakening, then Adam/Simon have to get going. Just stay on Valv's wheel and force him to make the tactical decisions. He really wants to win this.

I suspect Movistar's tactics, otoh, are for Valverde to try to gain 10 seconds today with a late surge and plan something coordinated on Saturday. On the other, other hand, I could be completely wrong and they will try to take it all back today in coordination with Mas.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

The best strategy for Yates is to watch Valverde like a hawk today (and maybe tomorrow). Train tactics only work if you've got 3-4 strong domestiques (or one Kwiatkowski...)

It doesn't matter if Lopez/SK/Mas etc take off at a certain point. If any one of them gets a serious gap and Valverde looks to be weakening, then Adam/Simon have to get going. Just stay on Valv's wheel and force him to make the tactical decisions. He really wants to win this.

I suspect Movistar's tactics, otoh, are for Valverde to try to gain 10 seconds today with a late surge and plan something coordinated on Saturday. On the other, other hand, I could be completely wrong and they will try to take it all back today in coordination with Mas.

That may not be bad strategy if Valverde plans something with Mas.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Yates has it now

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Yates has also now taken a lead in the combined jersey

 

[del1962]

Re:

Yates has also now taken a lead in the combined jersey

But Movistar still have a good lead in Team Classification :lol:

 

[Vesica]

So if Yates will keep his form, the three GT's will have three different (!) British winners :surprised:

Is this ever happened before, three different riders from the same country winning the three GT's?

 

[SlickMongoose]

Tough stage tomorrow, I think there's still a chance of Yates cracking.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Re: Re:

Enric Mas will win this bikerace.

Just to quote myself from page 2 of this thread.

Well you were wrong :razz:

But much righter than most.

 

[Inquitus]

So if Yates will keep his form, the three GT's will have three different (!) British winners :surprised:

Is this ever happened before, three different riders from the same country winning the three GT's?

It's also now 5 British winners in a row.

 

[Mozart92]

So if Yates will keep his form, the three GT's will have three different (!) British winners :surprised:

Is this ever happened before, three different riders from the same country winning the three GT's?

It's also now 5 British winners in a row.

In 2008 Contador won Giro and Vuelta and Sastre took the Tour (3x Spanish with 2 riders)
In 1964 Anquetil took the Giro+Tour with Poulidor taking the Vuelta (3X France with 2 riders)

Both having 3 different riders win and 5 consecutive british victories is an absolute record. It's also a bit weird considering that the UK has basically no mountains at all. Probably the benefits of modern training and the presence of a team with a disproportionate budget in the field that accounts for 4 of the 5 victories.

 

[Leinster]

Both having 3 different riders win and 5 consecutive british victories is an absolute record. It's also a bit weird considering that the UK has basically no mountains at all. Probably the benefits of modern training and the presence of a team with a disproportionate budget in the field that accounts for 4 of the 5 victories.

Froome didn't grow up in Gloucestershire.

And the last non-British GT winner is from a country with even fewer mountains.

And Belgium are 2nd in the list of all-time Tour wins, and 4th all time in Grand Tours (behind the 3 host countries).

 

[del1962]

In 2008 Contador won Giro and Vuelta and Sastre took the Tour (3x Spanish with 2 riders)
In 1964 Anquetil took the Giro+Tour with Poulidor taking the Vuelta (3X France with 2 riders)

Both having 3 different riders win and 5 consecutive british victories is an absolute record. It's also a bit weird considering that the UK has basically no mountains at all. Probably the benefits of modern training and the presence of a team with a disproportionate budget in the field that accounts for 4 of the 5 victories.

Plenty of places where the road goes up (and steeply), especially in the North of England ans Wales

 

[brownbobby]

In 2008 Contador won Giro and Vuelta and Sastre took the Tour (3x Spanish with 2 riders)
In 1964 Anquetil took the Giro+Tour with Poulidor taking the Vuelta (3X France with 2 riders)

Both having 3 different riders win and 5 consecutive british victories is an absolute record. It's also a bit weird considering that the UK has basically no mountains at all. Probably the benefits of modern training and the presence of a team with a disproportionate budget in the field that accounts for 4 of the 5 victories.

Plenty of places where the road goes up (and steeply), especially in the North of England ans Wales

We also have these things called aeroplanes (amongst other modes of transport) which allow us to get to real mountains really easily, even from a young age

 

[rick james]

In 2008 Contador won Giro and Vuelta and Sastre took the Tour (3x Spanish with 2 riders)
In 1964 Anquetil took the Giro+Tour with Poulidor taking the Vuelta (3X France with 2 riders)

Both having 3 different riders win and 5 consecutive british victories is an absolute record. It's also a bit weird considering that the UK has basically no mountains at all. Probably the benefits of modern training and the presence of a team with a disproportionate budget in the field that accounts for 4 of the 5 victories.

Plenty of places where the road goes up (and steeply), especially in the North of England ans Wales

We also have these things called aeroplanes (amongst other modes of transport) which allow us to get to real mountains really easily, even from a young age

You don’t even need airplanes, you could have driven to the north of Scotland and tackled the Bealach na ba



Actually thinking about it it people in England are maybe closer to the alps than they are closer to the big climbs in Scotland

 

[Tonton]

I can't believe Mick Jagger didn't win this bike race ...

 

[tobydawq]

I can't believe Mick Jagger didn't win this bike race ...

Nor Rigo, nor Urán.