Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

[Rollthedice]

Re:

I can't see past Yates if he'll be able to replicate Giro shape, otherwise will be very difficult to see someone with a legit shot over the others, almost everyone has an asterisk next to fitness or willing to go for GC.
Lopez could be a good pick but he has showed that he prefers high mountains rather than Vuelta muritos and he's likely to bleed time here and there in case of hectic/tricky finales.
Anyway I won't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere and pull a Cobo.

Nope, we seem to be in for a Cobo/Horner Vuelta soon enough

How about Buchmann?!

Or Ion Izagirre as some have mentioned. Bennett maybe, he also seems like a nice fella. Or Sepp Kuss?

Kuss as Cobo and Tao Geoghegan Hart as Froome though Tao showed some quality this year.

Don't be so mean to Tao. He has already more than double the CQ-points now at the age of 23 years than Froome had before his break through with 26 years.

Very true, he is good but I couldn't find another example.

 

[Blanco]

Bala to win it. And after that he will complete historical unprecedented double!

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Bala to win it. And after that he will complete historical unprecedented double!

There will be a LOT of celebrating if that happens.

 

[Akuryo]

Enric Mas will win this bikerace. MAL a close second.

 

[MrTea1976]

Top 4 of Porte, Yates, Uran and Kruiswijk in a random order.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Simon Yates vs. Porte. Yates will take it.

I think this is the most likely battle, but I give a slight edge to Richie.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I am going for Valverde as well to win overall and 4 stages.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Valverde to bonus seconds his way to the win

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Valverde to bonus seconds his way to the win

If he's going to win with bonus seconds, does that mean he's also going to win the green jersey?

 

[Gigs_98]

This is so hard to predict. I voted Porte as I think he is, together with Nibali and Quintana the highest caliber gc contender of this race but unlike the two he neither has the full tour in his legs nor did he break his vertebrae. Then again, if a rider crashes out or has a bad day in pretty much every gt he enters it's not a coincidence anymore and so "bad luck" could strike again. The 2nd biggest favorite for me is Yates but I don't know how he'll fare in that really hard third week as someone who almost always struggles in third weeks. Then my number three is Quintana who didn't look that great in the tour but the same could be said in 2016 when he went on to win the vuelta. Really the similarities of this year and 2016 are the only reason why I rate him so highly. The weird thing is, I can see this vuelta becoming a completely one sided affair with one of the three steamrolling the mountains but I also think the likelihood of all three not competing for the win is quite high too. I agree with the ones who say this has a winner coming out of left field written all over it. I like the picks of Sepp Kuss, Bennett and geoghean hart.

One guy who I didn't consider at all only three days ago but I now think might have a chance to win is Nibali. I think both he and his team 100% saw this race as a preparation for the worlds but all of a sudden they start talking about hanging on in the first week and possibly going for the gc. I think his training numbers are a lot better than they expected which changed their plans. I still don't see him as one of the top favorites but I still think he has a reasonable chance

 

[Alexandre B.]

I believe Quintana will replicate his 2016 form and win it all.

 

[Climbing]

If Nibali can hang on first week and reproduce his TdF form (or end of 2017 form) he will win by inertia.
If he has to dig too deep he won't bother to avoid being spent in Innsbruck.

Yeah imho he won't bother, unless if really falls into place by itself.

 

[42x16ss]

My man George Bennett to accidentally mug the lot of them

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

I don't think de la Cruz will be anywhere near a podium. He wasn't particularly good in Burgos (not too bad either, mind) and even though he rides for Sky and many refuse to believe that Sky riders have the ability to disappoint slightly, I think he will do just that.

I just don't see him as a GT GC top 5 rider.

Agreed. Kwiatkowski is the most likely Sky rider to go top 5 IMO.

Bernal should be here instead of riding the Tour, IMHO he could have created all kinds of mayhem.

 

[skippo12]

If Buchmann can repeat his previous climbing performances he has a chance to finish inside the top 5.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Well Oddschecker (Betfair exchange) seem to have Viviani as favourite with odds of 1/100 :lol: :lol: . So with that in mind, I'm going with 1. Porte 2. S.Yates 3. D. Martin.

 

[spalco]

I'm going with Quintana. I can't believe he's done yet and this would be an excellent opportunity for part-redemption.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I'm going with Quintana. I can't believe he's done yet and this would be an excellent opportunity for part-redemption.

I tend to agree. Quintana or Lil Richie.

 

[del1962]

Someone from Colombi.

Hope S Yates gets a podium

 

[Bolder]

Re:

I think random sky rider could be a dark horse. And I guess the random will be de la Cruz. Good for at least a podium, and maybe even more.

All of the 'favourites' are so flaky right now. Something always happens to Porte, Yates can't maintain GC winning form for three weeks, Aru and Valverde haven't looked like serious GT riders for two years now, Quintana hasn't reached GT winning form for two years either, Nibali and Pinot returning from health issues, and Uran not good enough.

I think an outsider will take it. Probably de la Cruz, becase Sky.

I voted "random Sky." I could easily see de la Cruz, Kwiat or even Hart winning. Don't discount Hart -- he has the Sky "look" about him and clearly Brailsford sees something in him.

My heart, as always, is with Pinot but he should probably stick to stage hunting. I'm also pulling for Quintana. In theory, the Yateseses should be able to pull off a podium between them. MAL in theory should also be a podium contender but I have a hard time cheering on any Astana rider.

 

[HelloDolly]

Valverde , NIbali & Quintana will podium this race based on desire,ability and redemption

 

[greenedge]

I'll go with
1.Yates
2.Porte
3.Lopez

Pinot, Bennet (for the podium) and Quintana are my other favourites, though Zakarin and Uran also have a chance.

 

[glassmoon]

Would love to see Bennet or Crushweak to win. I'll root for them.

 

[LosBrolin]

1. Nairo
2. MAL
3. Ilnur

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Re: Re:

I think random sky rider could be a dark horse. And I guess the random will be de la Cruz. Good for at least a podium, and maybe even more.

All of the 'favourites' are so flaky right now. Something always happens to Porte, Yates can't maintain GC winning form for three weeks, Aru and Valverde haven't looked like serious GT riders for two years now, Quintana hasn't reached GT winning form for two years either, Nibali and Pinot returning from health issues, and Uran not good enough.

I think an outsider will take it. Probably de la Cruz, becase Sky.

I voted "random Sky." I could easily see de la Cruz, Kwiat or even Hart winning. Don't discount Hart -- he has the Sky "look" about him and clearly Brailsford sees something in him.

My heart, as always, is with Pinot but he should probably stick to stage hunting. I'm also pulling for Quintana. In theory, the Yateseses should be able to pull off a podium between them. MAL in theory should also be a podium contender but I have a hard time cheering on any Astana rider.

Tao's never ridden a GT before. When's the last time a GT debutant won GC? Not going to happen, but I do expect him to impress and be at the pointy end on a consistent basis.