Who will win La Vuelta 2018?

[ice&fire]

MAL? MIguel Angel Leech? How can he win something just following wheels and sprinting in the last 100m when he has three riders ahead of him in GC and all of them are better at TT?

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Valverde has a real shot, it should be between him, Quintana and Simon Yates. Lagos the Cowabunga has always been a great climb for Valverde and the TT should suit him better then those 2 and on Spanish soil Movistar riders always seem to gain a few extra watts durning an ITT. I wouldn't be surprised if Valverde gains over 30seconds into Nairo and 50sec ond Simon in the ITT, if he also manages to get some bonus seconds before the final mountain stage he has a chance to win the race.
One of them could have a bad day and loose the podium spot to MAL, but I don't see him winning the race.

Add to that, Valverde in particular always races better on Spanish roads in front of his friends, family, and fans.

The only thing I'd argue with you is that I can see Yates putting a bit of time into Quintana, not the other way around.

Now whether or not Yates has learned from his mistakes at the Giro or not is yet to be seen.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Valverde has a real shot, it should be between him, Quintana and Simon Yates. Lagos the Cowabunga has always been a great climb for Valverde and the TT should suit him better then those 2 and on Spanish soil Movistar riders always seem to gain a few extra watts durning an ITT. I wouldn't be surprised if Valverde gains over 30seconds into Nairo and 50sec ond Simon in the ITT, if he also manages to get some bonus seconds before the final mountain stage he has a chance to win the race.
One of them could have a bad day and loose the podium spot to MAL, but I don't see him winning the race.

Add to that, Valverde in particular always races better on Spanish roads in front of his friends, family, and fans.

The only thing I'd argue with you is that I can see Yates putting a bit of time into Quintana, not the other way around.

Now whether or not Yates has learned from his mistakes at the Giro or not is yet to be seen.

Quintana usually performs pretty well in the longer TTs in the Vuelta, he's another example of a Movistar rider always performing better in an ITT if it takes place on Spanish soil, I'd rank Nario slightly above him in this kind of ITT.

 

[Blanco]

It seems like Movi vs Yates battle, with Lopez close 4th but big disadvantage because that TT...

 

[Leinster]

Re:

It seems like Movi vs Yates battle, with Lopez close 4th but big disadvantage because that TT...

I don't think anyone in the shakeup could call the TT an "advantage." Lopez has probably never really put in a good solid TT performance, but you look at how Yates went after the TT at the Giro, and you have to wonder would it be worth the risk for any of them to go too deep on Tuesday and risk blowing on Wednesday.

Whoever goes off last in the TT will have a huge advantage in that respect. And even if that is Yates, Movistar will have the option to have Valverde go flat out to the first check and put pressure on Yates.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

It seems like Movi vs Yates battle, with Lopez close 4th but big disadvantage because that TT...

I don't think anyone in the shakeup could call the TT an "advantage." Lopez has probably never really put in a good solid TT performance, but you look at how Yates went after the TT at the Giro, and you have to wonder would it be worth the risk for any of them to go too deep on Tuesday and risk blowing on Wednesday.

Whoever goes off last in the TT will have a huge advantage in that respect. And even if that is Yates, Movistar will have the option to have Valverde go flat out to the first check and put pressure on Yates.

It's unlikely Valverde will go flat out into the first check. He's actually fairly good at measuring his TT efforts to be a good TTer for a GC rider. Also he's much more likely to not go hard enough in the first segment to make sure he's good in the final segment. He won't change how he rides a TT.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

It seems like Movi vs Yates battle, with Lopez close 4th but big disadvantage because that TT...

I don't think anyone in the shakeup could call the TT an "advantage." Lopez has probably never really put in a good solid TT performance, but you look at how Yates went after the TT at the Giro, and you have to wonder would it be worth the risk for any of them to go too deep on Tuesday and risk blowing on Wednesday.

Whoever goes off last in the TT will have a huge advantage in that respect. And even if that is Yates, Movistar will have the option to have Valverde go flat out to the first check and put pressure on Yates.

It's unlikely Valverde will go flat out into the first check. He's actually fairly good at measuring his TT efforts to be a good TTer for a GC rider. Also he's much more likely to not go hard enough in the first segment to make sure he's good in the final segment. He won't change how he rides a TT.

Just suggesting it as a tactic that Movistar might use to try and get Yates to overextend himself and be vulnerable the next day. The post-rest-day TT is where his Giro started to unravel, and I'm sure that hasn't escaped the notice of Arrieta or Lastras, or whoever has the final call on tactical decisions for the team (which is probably actually Valverde or Quintana, tbh).

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

It seems like Movi vs Yates battle, with Lopez close 4th but big disadvantage because that TT...

I don't think anyone in the shakeup could call the TT an "advantage." Lopez has probably never really put in a good solid TT performance, but you look at how Yates went after the TT at the Giro, and you have to wonder would it be worth the risk for any of them to go too deep on Tuesday and risk blowing on Wednesday.

Whoever goes off last in the TT will have a huge advantage in that respect. And even if that is Yates, Movistar will have the option to have Valverde go flat out to the first check and put pressure on Yates.

It's unlikely Valverde will go flat out into the first check. He's actually fairly good at measuring his TT efforts to be a good TTer for a GC rider. Also he's much more likely to not go hard enough in the first segment to make sure he's good in the final segment. He won't change how he rides a TT.

Just suggesting it as a tactic that Movistar might use to try and get Yates to overextend himself and be vulnerable the next day. The post-rest-day TT is where his Giro started to unravel, and I'm sure that hasn't escaped the notice of Arrieta or Lastras, or whoever has the final call on tactical decisions for the team (which is probably actually Valverde or Quintana, tbh).

Except that Valverde and the team have stated Valverde is racing his own race with full freedom to do whatever he wants however he wants and nothing will be asked of him for this race. Actually at Movistar it's most likely Valverde who has the final say on tactics in races he is participating. One explanation of how Movistar does things was from Dowsett explaining the team time trial. He said at Sky they knew the day before the order they were going in and everything was fully laid out. At Movistar the riders were still deciding the order they were going in while in the start house on the the blocks. It's also very well know that Valverde calls his own races from the saddle.

One other note: Movistar has stated several times that they never know what kind of time trial they are going to get from Valverde until he's actually out on course racing. Anyone else they will know at breakfast, but they can't get a read on Valverde until he's actually part way through his TT.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

It seems like Movi vs Yates battle, with Lopez close 4th but big disadvantage because that TT...

I don't think anyone in the shakeup could call the TT an "advantage." Lopez has probably never really put in a good solid TT performance, but you look at how Yates went after the TT at the Giro, and you have to wonder would it be worth the risk for any of them to go too deep on Tuesday and risk blowing on Wednesday.

Whoever goes off last in the TT will have a huge advantage in that respect. And even if that is Yates, Movistar will have the option to have Valverde go flat out to the first check and put pressure on Yates.

The thing to remember about the Giro is that White treated the race as if it finished after the TT. He burned Yates out trying to get a time buffer. He's not going to make that mistake here.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Simon Yates
Alejandro Valverde +33"
Steven Kruijswijk +52"
Nairo Quintana +1'15"
Enric Mas +1'30"
Miguel Angel Lopez +1'34"
Thibaut Pinot +2'53"
Ion Izagirre +3'04"
Rigoberto Uran +03'15"
Tony Gallopin +04'43"

So it's probably between those six. Yates looks good to avenge his Giro downfall.

 

[MuskyOurSaviour]

Yates vs Lopez

Tour boys are getting worse and Kruisjwik is not gonna drop anyone.

 

[Velolover2]

If Lopez and Quintana want to beat Yates, they have to end their feud and work together. Otherwise, it's impossible.

And Yates will have a nice, pace-setting superdom in Kruijswijk on the climbs.

 

[perico]

Re: Re:

The surprising unmention of Enric Más in this thread...

It's a who will win thread, not who will finish 7th.

You were saying? To be fair, he’s not going to win, and could still finish 7th, but compared to some of the names mentioned early... he might as well be.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

If Simon doesn't crack as in Giro he will win it easily.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Yates vs Lopez

Tour boys are getting worse and Kruisjwik is not gonna drop anyone.

And rode the tdf on high form as well.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Yates vs Lopez

Tour boys are getting worse and Kruisjwik is not gonna drop anyone.

This guy ain't going to win, that's a sure thing. It's still Yates vs Movistar, with much better prospects for Yates after this TT. Kruijswijk is also in the mix right now.

 

[bambino]

Steven Kruijswik is going to win this Vuelta.

 

[Arked]

Yates didn't empty his clips early, like he did in Giro. I think he has this Vuelta in the bag.

 

[Red Rick]

Movistar dropped the ball massively. They aren't winning. If they start 1-2ing Yates, he's probably just gonna drop them both. Adam should be in the mix by Andorra to safely bring his brother to the foot of the Collada

Unless Yates implodes, Kruijswijk doesn't stand a snowballs chance.

 

[topcat]

Quintana will win one stage and the vuelta.

 

[Inquitus]

Re:

Quintana will win one stage and the vuelta.

Yates will beat Valverde / Kruijswijk into 2nd with Quintana / MAL best of the rest imo. Movistar should have picked Valverde much earlier as their best option imo.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Game over, lady and gentlemen.

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Movistar dropped the ball massively. They aren't winning. If they start 1-2ing Yates, he's probably just gonna drop them both. Adam should be in the mix by Andorra to safely bring his brother to the foot of the Collada

Unless Yates implodes, Kruijswijk doesn't stand a snowballs chance.

I completely agree. Hopefully the bold occurs I will laugh my head off although I will feel a little sorry for Quintana.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Movistar dropped the ball massively. They aren't winning. If they start 1-2ing Yates, he's probably just gonna drop them both. Adam should be in the mix by Andorra to safely bring his brother to the foot of the Collada

Unless Yates implodes, Kruijswijk doesn't stand a snowballs chance.

I completely agree. Hopefully the bold occurs I will laugh my head off although I will feel a little sorry for Quintana.

I wouldn't be so sure about Yates being head and shoulders the best climber. He gained couple of seconds here and there, but that's all. He could have a bad day, or a bad moment, and someone could benefit from that. We'll see, it's still far from over.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Quintana will win one stage and the vuelta.

Yates will beat Valverde / Kruijswijk into 2nd with Quintana / MAL best of the rest imo. Movistar should have picked Valverde much earlier as their best option imo.

I think he was always riding his own race if you ask me. Couple of times he didn't wait for Quintana and viceversa. This is always the same story.

This is the way Movistar always races!