We still have to be very, very cautious about Primoz. Obviously, I‘m a huge fan of him, y‘all know that. I‘d wish he wins Vueltas 2022 and 2023, to get this record.
But, for 2022: I cannot imagine Primoz has the same shape, or an even better shape, than he had in 2021‘s Vuelta. If his injuries from the Tour and his prep for the Vuelta were what they told us to be, he cannot be in great shape. And: you do not win a GT with 95-97% of your best shape. That is not possible, not even for Primoz.
Primoz, however, has few opponents in this 2022 Vuelta which have 100% top shape. And I would be very surprised if Primoz could beat these guys.
If Hindley, for example, should have the shape from Giro 2022 also in Vuelta‘s mountains, it‘s game over for Primoz’ Vuelta hopes this year.
I believe Vuelta 2022 GC victory will be decided between Hindley, Carapaz and Simon Yates.