Who will win Milan - Sanremo?

[karlboss]

Simon Gerrans.

 

[burning]

%35 Freire
%30 Cav
%15 Sagan
%10 Canc
%10 Rest

Thats my humble opinion

 

[pmcg76]

I think SKY are going to control it and Cav will take the victory Gonna miss it tomorrow but maybe that will be for the better.

 

[karlboss]

I'd say it's about 60 percent chance for a bunch sprint. I guess that means about : Cav - 40 %, Freire 20%,Boonen 20%,Cancellara 20%.

I voted Cancellara, just a feeling .

I am starting to doubt the chances of Sagan, Nibali and EBH, although people seem to hype them up.

About Phil Gil, I think most of his fans are fooling themselves right now, just like I was doing before last year's World TT champ...

Looking at the teams, 60% for a bunch sprint is pretty conservative. For it not to be a bunch sprint nowadays something has to happen before the Poggio with enough commitment to put the sprinters out of contention, no team seems really committed to that sort of plan, maybe BMC, or maybe an unexpected early break sticking. This one is 90% sprint.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

They really can't. As I said elsewhere, easiest classic to finish, one of the hardest to win.

Don't agree that this is not an easy race to win. If you look at the winners list, there are lots of riders with multiple wins. I would not be surprised if Cavendish ended his career with 3-4 MSR wins.

 

[karlboss]

Don't agree that this is not an easy race to win. If you look at the winners list, there are lots of riders with multiple wins. I would not be surprised if Cavendish ended his career with 3-4 MSR wins.

Don't look now, but you just agreed.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Don't look now, but you just agreed.

C'mon, guys--keep it civil or you'll have Susan on us. Let's all just agree to agree.

I'd love to see NIbali win it, b/c he'd have to do it on the Poggio. But. Likely Cav. (Though you can never rule Freire out of any race he enters, regardless of time of the year or apparent condition.)

 

[greenedge]

I went with Cancellara- seems in great form and he will try make the race hard by getting teammates in breaks. In a break i would trust in him to still try go solo. If he is caught i think Sky will have used all their ammo and one of Goss, Boonen Sagan or Freire will win.

My picks are Cancellara- Haussler then Sagan.

 

[greenedge]

Simon Gerrans.

This is the M-SR thread not the next dominator of the Ardennes thread.

In all seriousness i think he will just follow the moves and get in a decent training ride ( trying to recover from his crash ).

I would like to see GE use him as a 2nd card though.

 

[karlboss]

This is the M-SR thread not the next dominator of the Ardennes thread.

In all seriousness i think he will just follow the moves and get in a decent training ride ( trying to recover from his crash ).

I would like to see GE use him as a 2nd card though.

I wanted to pick someone suitably left field who actually has a chance, given that i think this is a 90% sprint...on the 10% chance that it isn't a sprint Gerrans has the form to outsprint everyone good enough to go over poggio without sprinters hanging on.

 

[Cancellator]

Looking at the teams, 60% for a bunch sprint is pretty conservative. For it not to be a bunch sprint nowadays something has to happen before the Poggio with enough commitment to put the sprinters out of contention, no team seems really committed to that sort of plan, maybe BMC, or maybe an unexpected early break sticking. This one is 90% sprint.

I guess you are right, the fact that I'm hoping it will not end in a bunch sprint kind of distorts my vision. You never know, though, maybe something will happen.

 

[boomcie]

EBH getting too much love in this poll. No way he'll win.

 

[Frosty]

Haussler to play the quiet game and then get revenge for 2009

 

[ferryman]

Cavendish for me. If there is one thing I admire about him is that he delivers on what he says he wants. And he does look in fantastic shape.

 

[Old School]

Haussler to play the quiet game and then get revenge for 2009

I like THIS! I'm a fan of the Double H!

 

[Alpechraxler]

revenge would mean that Haussler will leave his line in the sprint taking down Cavendish, ruining the rest of the season..

My guess Bozic

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Don't look now, but you just agreed.

hardly, but I am setting Cav's target low for now.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Johnny Hoogerland is going to destroy all life on the Cipressa

 

[Woody22]

Gerrans or Goss.

GreenEdge to at least make the top 3.

 

[karlboss]

hardly, but I am setting Cav's target low for now.

Since you don't agree that this is an easy race to finish but hard to win,
you must think that this an easy race to win and is essentially a lottery from all those who make it to the finish? (though as you point out multiple winners would suggest otherwise), or that any race won by Cavendish is an easy race to win? In which case you should explain to the other sprinters that it is in fact easy to win 5 tour stages. Or maybe it is an easy race for Cavendish to win?(which very well may be true)

 

[Swede1]

I wanted to pick someone suitably left field who actually has a chance, given that i think this is a 90% sprint...on the 10% chance that it isn't a sprint Gerrans has the form to outsprint everyone good enough to go over poggio without sprinters hanging on.

Well i'd say cancellara and sagan would be in that group, and they are both better on flat sprints.

 

[karlboss]

Well i'd say cancellara and sagan would be in that group, and they are both better on flat sprints.

I'd tip Gerrans to hang on beter than either of those uphill ie if MSR finished atop poggio Gerrans would be ahead. So I'm saying in my extreme left field version, Cancellara and Sagan aren't there, contentious I know.

EDIT: really tough to imagine going over Poggio so hard that Cancellara and Sagan can't get back on the downhill and run to the finish.

 

[pedaling squares]

Sagan. He can win this race at 60% and is already cresting 80. He'll probably sweep the monuments this year and podium at the Tour. My only doubt is he looked kind of tired at the end of MSR last year. In any case, with Nibali, him, and Spartacus in such good form, I can't see HTC taking it.

You forgot about his upcoming Olympic gold medal, World Championship road race title, and Nobel peace prize. No need to even mention Time Magazine Person of the Year, is there? 2012 is looking to be quite a year for young Mr Sagan.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Freire Freire Freire

 

[will10]

revenge would mean that Haussler will leave his line in the sprint taking down Cavendish, ruining the rest of the season..

My guess Bozic

HH crashes too much as it is.