Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Angliru]

With most of the other guys we more or less know what they're capable of, and that we shouldn't expect any miracles from them. Antón could still be the guy that really stands out. That's what makes people vote for him, I think. At least, that's what made me vote for him.

Dude has unfinished business at the Vuelta. Until he finishes the event he and we will always be left unsatisfied, especially after last year's performance, which was like his grand tour coming out party that he unfortunately crashed out of. For me he's an exciting rider that fits most of the prerequisites for my being an admirer: he can climb with the best, he's aggressive, he's humble, and it helps that he rides for Euskaltel Euskadi.

 

[Pantani_lives]

This is really tough to predict. In the absence of a clear favorite I still say Nibali for the moment. I have my doubts about Anton in a time trial and under pressure. Aren't the expectations too high for him?

Menchov and Sastre weren't good in the Giro. Will they be better now? And then there are the Tour victims Wiggins, VDB, Brajkovic and Klöden. Are they prepared well enough?

1 Nibali
2 Anton
3 Menchov
4 VDB
5 Wiggins
6 Scarponi
7 Rodriguez
8 Brajkovic
9 Sastre
10 Klöden
Joker: Kashechkin

 

[SHAD0W93]

Dude has unfinished business at the Vuelta. Until he finishes the event he and we will always be left unsatisfied, especially after last year's performance, which was like his grand tour coming out party that he unfortunately crashed out of. For me he's an exciting rider that fits most of the prerequisites for my being an admirer: he can climb with the best, he's aggressive, he's humble, and it helps that he rides for Euskaltel Euskadi.

He did finish in 2007. 8th 8' behind Menchov.

 

[Anonymous]

I voted for Scarponi because i want him to win a GT. I really dont mind if anyone wins just so long as its a great vuelta.

 

[Jan the Man]

1. Nibali
2. Menchov
3. Scarponi
4. Rodriguez
5. Wiggins
6. Nieve
7. Klöden
8. Roche
9. Sastre
10. Kisrelovski

 

[Christomir]

1. Nibali
2. Menchov
3. Scarponi
4. Rodriguez
5. Wiggins
6. Nieve
7. Klöden
8. Roche
9. Sastre
10. Kisrelovski

So you think Anton will crash out again?

 

[Greenflame]

Menchov will win if he reaches the top-form he has had during the GT's he won. However, that's a big if, and in case he doesn't reach that top-form he will probably barely top-5. Otherwise I can see Scarponi winning, who I can see being able to stick with Anton and Rodriguez on the hills while taking time on them in the TT.

Nibali, while I'll be supporting him, I can't see defending his title. Menchov, Scarponi and Anton have a better chance at winning in my opinion. He'll probably end up 3rd or 4th.

 

[Angliru]

He did finish in 2007. 8th 8' behind Menchov.

Thanks! I totally forgot about that.

 

[xmoonx]

Brajkovic

I actually think Jani Brajkovic has good chance of getting a podium spot; he has a team with great support (Zubeldia, Paulihno, Machado) and is riding into great form following an impressive Tour of Utah. True he doesn't have the GT pedigree but he has all the right ingredients. Kloden, while i like him as a rider is as fragile as glass and unless he's BS'ing about the back is riding support. The obvious choices for the other spots i think are Anton, Menchov (in form), Nibali.

 

[Fergoose]

I don’t have a clue and there is no clear favourite at all, with everyone having a weakness – maybe leaving the door open for an outsider? A brief check shows possibly only one really beastly summit finish before the ITT so its likely Menchov & Wiggins will be defending leads in that horrific looking second week (three back to back summit finishes?). Looks like we’ll not really know the likely winner until at least the end of the second week.

- Hard to imagine Van den Broeck being fully recovered (he’d be my favourite otherwise).
- Too mountainous for Wiggins and probably Menchov even if they have a few minutes lead after the ITT (although if they have the sense to just mark Nibali’s wheel it could get interesting as he won’t have the explosive pace to shake them off if they are on form)
- No apparent major downhill finishes for Nibali to gain time on (although he could win without that).
- Sastre too old.
- Radioshack a leaderless, unfocussed mess as per usual!

So…

Despite rooting for Nibali, Sastre & VDB I’ll take a punt on Rodriguez as he may only lose a couple of minutes in the ITT to those GC contenders who aren’t Wiggins & Menchov.

My dark horse is Rein Taaramae if he isn’t all tuckered out after his exertions at the Tour de France. In the unlikely event he is back to full strength then the White Jersey and possible Top 8 overall could be possible. I think he’ll beat at least a couple of the names in this poll. Can’t wait!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

My dark horse is Rein Taaramae if he isn’t all tuckered out after his exertions at the Tour de France. In the unlikely event he is back to full strength then the White Jersey and possible Top 8 overall could be possible. I think he’ll beat at least a couple of the names in this poll. Can’t wait!

Good point. Xorret del Catí isn't in the route this year.

 

[python]

Menchov will win if he reaches the top-form he has had during the GT's he won. However, that's a big if, and in case he doesn't reach that top-form he will probably barely top-5. Otherwise I can see Scarponi winning, who I can see being able to stick with Anton and Rodriguez on the hills while taking time on them in the TT.

Nibali, while I'll be supporting him, I can't see defending his title. Menchov, Scarponi and Anton have a better chance at winning in my opinion. He'll probably end up 3rd or 4th.

i have a sneaky feeling the geox will be riding for sastre at some point during the race because ...()there wont be 'the top form during the gt he won'.

we'll have to see, but many things point to sastre in the geox set-up...obviously, they keep low key about that.

 

[zapata]

I vote Anton, for sentimental reasons. Anton and Nibali are probably my 2 favourite GC-riders, but I've got a feeling Menchov is ready to do something again. Looking at the choices in the poll, there's noone else I can imagine winning this.

 

[Gubby Allen]

1 - Nibali
2 - Rodriguez
3 - Anton

4 Menchov, 5 Cobo, 6 Wiggins, 7 Scarponi, 8 Kruijswijk, 9 Brajkovic, 10 JVDB

Sastre & the-Irish pair in the early teens.

 

[auscyclefan94]

1. Menchov
2. Anton
3. Scarponi
4. Nibali
5. Rodriguez
6. Wiggins
7. Nieve
8. Kloden
9. Brajkovic
10. Matthias Frank
11. JVDB

 

[theyoungest]

- Too mountainous for Wiggins and probably Menchov even if they have a few minutes lead after the ITT (although if they have the sense to just mark Nibali’s wheel it could get interesting as he won’t have the explosive pace to shake them off if they are on form)

I don't really get this... too mountainous for Menchov, but not for Nibali? Why is Menchov always so underrated as a climber (and Nibali so overrated)?

 

[Swede1]

I don't really get this... too mountainous for Menchov, but not for Nibali? Why is Menchov always so underrated as a climber (and Nibali so overrated)?

Yeah an in form Menchov can match explosive climbing. An inform Nibali cannot match the explosive accelerations.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I don't think Menchov can necessarily match an explosive Rodriguez or Anton but he is certainly good enough that he won't lose much time to those guys.

 

[Swede1]

I don't think Menchov can necessarily match an explosive Rodriguez or Anton but he is certainly good enough that he won't lose much time to those guys.

Yeah thats what I mean. I really hope he has his 2009 Giro form.

Why is Nibali rated as more likely to win the Vuelta when he was beaten by Scarponi at the Giro? I feel like Scarponi is being underrated for the Vuelta. Has he said he isn't in good shape?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Thanks! I totally forgot about that.

We all forget stuff but after I posted that I thought you ment he had unfinished business I thought you meant him winning it as his unfinshed business.

 

[the chicken from T]

1. Dennis Menchov
2. Igor Anton
3. JVDB
4. M. Scarponi
5. JRod
6. V. Nibali
7. J. Braikovic
8. A. Kasheckin
9. Cobo
10.LL.Sanchez

 

[ISDfan]

Scarponi will win the Vuelta !

 

[icefire]

Yeah thats what I mean. I really hope he has his 2009 Giro form.

Why is Nibali rated as more likely to win the Vuelta when he was beaten by Scarponi at the Giro? I feel like Scarponi is being underrated for the Vuelta. Has he said he isn't in good shape?

It works more or less like this:
If a rider is good at the Tour he's highly rated at the Vuelta. Ok, there might be some exception to this with Andy Schleck.
If a rider is good at the Giro but has never been good at the Tour, he has to prove he cares about the Vuelta. Simoni did the Vuelta in 2001 and he just came in 10th. Di Luca did it in 2006, wore the leader's jersey for a day and fell quickly down on GC afterwards. Nibali wasn't highly rated one year ago until he took the leader's jersey after Antón's crash. He was second in GC after Andorra but he had been beaten in that stage by Antón, Mosquera, Tondo, Bruseghin and Urán. Scarponi is now like Nibali one year ago.
I checked yesterday the web sites of Spain's main sports papers. Nobody talks of Scarponi in as.com, and only David De La Fuente points to Scarponi as a favorite in marca.com.

You can watch the poll of marca.com readers:
http://www.marca.com/debate/2011/08/1842/prevotaciones1842.html

 

[Fetisoff]

3. JVDB

JVDB will be dropped like a stone on stage 4.

Scarponi will win the Vuelta !

Well, I'm marinating a pair of socks which I've promised to it if that ever happens

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Well, I'm marinating a pair of socks which I've promised to it if that ever happens

Hope it's a good marinade then