Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[canyonball]

I feel like Scarponi is being underrated for the Vuelta. Has he said he isn't in good shape?

He stated the usual. Wants to take it day by day, get stage wins and if all goes wel do something on the GC. LINK

 

[the chicken from T]

so i should not take him in my team ?, Why(explanation) ?

 

[The Hitch]

Official prediction

1 Anton
2 Scarponi
3 Menchov
4 Nibali
5 Joaquim Rodriguez

 

[Fetisoff]

so i should not take him in my team ?, Why(explanation) ?

Well, how much racing has he done since coming back from injury?

And this is not like usual TDF, where you can hide in the peloton for the first week cause it's all spring stages more or less, you need good form for the sierra nevada stage, or you'll lose minutes

 

[the chicken from T]

Remembe Gesnk in Vuelta 2009. Crashed out n TDF and did very well in Vuelta (until crash)

 

[ISDfan]

8. A. Kasheckin

Is it a joke ? Do you really think that he can finish the Vuelta at 8 spot in GC ?

 

[bicing]

I think it will be Igor Anton!!

He's a super cool rider.

I hope Sastre, VDB2 and Nibali do well too. And that the Radioshackers, Menchov and Scarponi don't do well.

 

[the chicken from T]

Only If he has new pills. (agree, top 20 at most)

 

[Swede1]

Official prediction

1 Anton
2 Scarponi
3 Menchov
4 Nibali
5 Joaquim Rodriguez

Ill go with
1 Anton
2 Menchov
3 Scarponi
4 Nibali
5 Purito
6 Wiggins
7 Brajkovic
8 JVDB
9 Mikel Nieve
10 Steven Kruijswijk

I know the top three are similar, but Menchov seems pretty confident for the Vuelta, and Scarponi isn't being rated as highly as he should be.

 

[Fetisoff]

Ok, here's my final, final "official" prediction

1. Menchov
2. Anton
3. Nibbles
4. Purito
5. Scarponi

 

[just some guy]

ok here is mine

Scarponi

Nibali

Anton

VDB2

Wiggins

Rodriguez

Sastra

Kruijswijk

Brajkovic

Dan Martin

 

[Zoncolan]

1. Menchov
2. Purito
3. Scarponi

 

[Hugo Koblet]

1. Anton
2. Scarponi
3. Menchov
4. Nibali
5. Rodriguez
6. Daniel Martin

 

[jens_attacks]

1.kash
2.scarponi
3.purito
4.anton
5.cobo

 

[gregrowlerson]

So the TTT is over. Poor results for Wiggins and the Shack boys, whilst a good result for Nibali. Doesn't really give us much insight though into the overall picture. I'm guessing that once stage 4 is over the list of possible winners will be down to a few. It's very exciting to have an important GC stage so early in a GT...being as rare as that is.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Must be a lot of disappointed Anton backers around here.

Such a shame, it's not like you had any evidence to suggest he's flakey and finds a way to not get it done.

 

[jens_attacks]

1.kash
2.scarponi
3.purito
4.anton
5.cobo

lol i strike again....damn dyachenko finished above kash.....cobo still looking great though

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Must be a lot of disappointed Anton backers around here.

Such a shame, it's not like you had any evidence to suggest he's flakey and finds a way to not get it done.

He has been disappointing, for sure. But it's a three week race, and if he times his form a bit later in the race, for the Somiedo, Angliru and Peña Cabarga stages, he still has a chance. I wouldn't be overly optimistic, but he's not all that far down, especially when you consider many have talked up Rodríguez as his main climbing opposition and there's an ITT to come. Sure, Antón is rubbish against the clock, but Purito is even worse.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

He has been disappointing, for sure. But it's a three week race, and if he times his form a bit later in the race, for the Somiedo, Angliru and Peña Cabarga stages, he still has a chance. I wouldn't be overly optimistic, but he's not all that far down, especially when you consider many have talked up Rodríguez as his main climbing opposition and there's an ITT to come. Sure, Antón is rubbish against the clock, but Purito is even worse.

When you're capable of being the best climber in the race, and 50 guys outclimb you, it's not just bad form.

Many have talked about Jrod, but as you can see, many made Igor favourite so I don't think much of the wisdom of crowds.

Nibali is clearly favourite, and I see no evidence that Anton has enough ability, with a TT still to come, to be able to give away so much time to him, and make it good later.

 

[Angliru]

Must be a lot of disappointed Anton backers around here.

Such a shame, it's not like you had any evidence to suggest he's flakey and finds a way to not get it done.

Is this your way of gloating on the sly?

Of course there are some disappointed Anton backers. Why state the obvious?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Is this your way of gloating on the sly?

Of course there are some disappointed Anton backers. Why state the obvious?

I didn't think the gloating was very sly to be honest.

 

[Angliru]

I didn't think the gloating was very sly to be honest.

I was being diplomatic in case I misinterpreted your intention.

 

[Winterfold]

I guess in order to gloat at the misguided flaky grimpeur manlove I have to stick my own neck out...

1. Nibali
2. Wiggins
3. Someone else

not that 1. looks like anything other than stating the obvious.

Still, its a long hot road to Madrid...

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I was being diplomatic in case I misinterpreted your intention.

Very kind of you. Alas, having repeatedly mocked the received wisdom on Anton in this thread, I am determined to gloat for a little while, before spending the rest of this evening in the slightly less entertaining pursuit of throwing away half my possessions pre flat move.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

To be honest, as I made clear repeatedly (but was roundly ignored in favour of making the interpretation that because Antón is one of my favourites, that I thought he'd win), I didn't think Antón was the favourite, I just thought some of the criticisms of him (eg he's only shown the class to win at the 2010 Vuelta) were unfair.

I said more than once that I thought Nibali would be the most likely winner, with the caveat that if Menchov turned up at full capacity he would be better - knowing full well that Menchov cannot be trusted to turn up at full capacity.

I still stand by everything I said. Antón isn't out of this on paper, but it's unlikely that he returns from this setback. Nibali is the best placed, but if an on-form Nibali and on-form Menchov squared off I would still back Menchov to win. Sadly, also as expected, we haven't got an on-form Menchov.