Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Arnout]

Especially considering he did the Tour-Vuelta in 2009, albeit as a support rider.

2009 was an off-year altogether though, he wasn't up to strength due to his 2008 crash.

But yeah, it's hard to explain why its not possible. Did this start during the last week of the Giro already? Who knows.

In Burgos he was within the first 15, now he isn't with the first 30-45 riders.

Anyway, lesson learned I hope, different prep next year.

 

[cineteq]

GC Favorites after stage 5

RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT
FUGLSANG, Jakob LEO +3
NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ +10
KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST +13
VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO +21
ZUBELDIA, Haimar RSH +32
NIEVE, Mikel EUS +34
SCARPONI, Michele LAM +35
MARTIN, Daniel GRM +41
BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 44
WIGGINS, Bradley SKY +57
SASTRE, Carlos GEO +1:29
KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB +2:15
MENCHOV, Denis GEO +2:12
ANTON, Igor EUS +2:47

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

You forgot Mollema.+33

 

[cineteq]

You forgot Mollema.+33

Is he dutch by any chance

PS: let's see after the ITT what we can do for him

 

[auscyclefan94]

Rodriguez or nibali for me now. Menchov and Anton don't look like much cop now.

 

[theyoungest]

Is he dutch by any chance

PS: let's see after the ITT what we can do for him

He's no worse in a GT than Dan Martin, that's for sure. And a better time trialist.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Martin is a better climber imo.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

GC Favorites after stage 5

RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT
FUGLSANG, Jakob LEO +3
NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ +10
KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST +13
VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO +21
ZUBELDIA, Haimar RSH +32
NIEVE, Mikel EUS +34
SCARPONI, Michele LAM +35
MARTIN, Daniel GRM +41
BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 44
WIGGINS, Bradley SKY +57
SASTRE, Carlos GEO +1:29
KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB +2:15
MENCHOV, Denis GEO +2:12
ANTON, Igor EUS +2:47

If you're gonna make a list of over 10 people, you might also want to include Monfort, who is going for a top 10 spot and is riding for himself for once.

 

[Winterfold]

Who will be in the red jersey after the ITT?

If it's Wiggins or Nibali I can see a lot of breakaways staying away...

 

[meat puppet]

I would fancy JVDB's chances. Scarponi's too.

 

[the asian]

Rodriguez or nibali for me now. Menchov and Anton don't look like much cop now.

Agree. J Rod and Nibali are looking impressive. Menchov is already 2 mins back. He will not turn that back.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Who will be in the red jersey after the ITT?

If it's Wiggins or Nibali I can see a lot of breakaways staying away...

How do you mean exactly? You're alluding to the time bonus at the finish in mountain stages?

 

[theyoungest]

Martin is a better climber imo.

Martin is a better climber than most, when he "has it". Unfortunately, he has a lot of days where he doesn't. BTW, yesterday he lost about half a minute to Mollema on a finish which should suite him to a tee.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1 Nibali
2 Wiggins
3 Van den Broeck
4 Rodriguez
5 Scarponi
6 Menchov
7 Nieve
8 Brajkovic
9 Bruseghin
10 Fuglsang

It looks terrible for Spain. They have to hope that Rodriguez doen't lose too much in the TT.

 

[Frosty]

Martin is a better climber than most, when he "has it". Unfortunately, he has a lot of days where he doesn't. BTW, yesterday he lost about half a minute to Mollema on a finish which should suite him to a tee.

According to the article below he doesnt sleep well at altitude and barely slept on tuesday night.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/0825/1224302934708.html

Not sure why he couldnt have gone to lower altitude, etc, maybe just too awkward. We'll see how he does in the rest of the Vuelta.

 

[Winterfold]

How do you mean exactly? You're alluding to the time bonus at the finish in mountain stages?

yah

Those 20s could be very significant if eg Rodrigues gets a couple of them.

I'd be letting those breakaways get the wins, and/or make eg Katusha do the work.

 

[cineteq]

Nibali looking pretty good to take his 2nd Vuelta.

Virtual GC

3 NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ
4 RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT + 7
5 FUGLSANG, Jakob LEO + 9
6 KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST + 25
7 MONFORT, Maxime LEO + 28
8 VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO + 33
10 BRUSEGHIN, Marzio MOV + 36
12 NIEVE, Mikel EUS + 41
13 SCARPONI, Michele LAM + 41
14 ZUBELDIA, Haimar RSH + 44
15 MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB + 45
17 BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 57
18 COBO, Juan José GEO + 1:05
20 WIGGINS, Bradley SKY + 1:10
21 MACHADO, Tiago RSH + 1:27
22 MARTIN, Daniel GRM + 1:34
23 ROCHE, Nicolas ALM + 1:37
24 SASTRE, Carlos GEO + 1:37
28 KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB + 2:18
29 MENCHOV, Denis GEO + 2:25
34 ANTON, Igor EUS + 2:44

PS: I hope I've satisfied all fanboys out there by not missing their favorite GC rider

 

[icefire]

Please, keep Movistar men invisible

 

[hrotha]

And pfff, no Sivtsov, Cobo or Perget.

 

[Nielsa]

MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB +45
KRUIJSWIJK, Steven RAB +2:18


PS: I hope I've satisfied all fanboys out there by not missing their favorite GC rider

Kevin Sealdryer will finish ahead of all of Rabobank.

 

[roundabout]

This reminds that I should actually vote.

Edit: oh.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Please, keep Movistar men invisible

They probably will be. Pardilla or Bruseghin might hold on to the bottom end of the top 10, but really they're probably reduced to López and Lastras stagehunting from here on in, unless Konovalovas does a mighty turn in the ITT, which I doubt with the likes of Cancellara, Martin and Wiggins pre-Worlds.

 

[greenedge]

I think the crash now gives JVDB a perfect chance to swoop. Make the next stage hard, maybe riding tempo on the front. He did lose a bit of time however on stage 6 which was not great but he looks to be very consistent.

The crash will affect, Nibali, Scarponi and JROD.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think the crash now gives JVDB a perfect chance to swoop. Make the next stage hard, maybe riding tempo on the front. He did lose a bit of time however on stage 6 which was not great but he looks to be very consistent.

The crash will affect, Nibali, Scarponi and JROD.

JVDB looked surprisingly good on Sierra nevada. Sunday and then monday will be big tests for him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Nobody knows how good JVDB is, or what exactly his ambitions are (although it seems clear he does want to go for a GC, the question remains if he can pull it off only 6 weeks after he fell). That means including his rivals. Maybe he should keep it that way for now. He said he was ok on Sierra Nevada, but not great, still missing a few percentages. If he tries something, he better be 100% or he'll pay for it later on, maybe in the same stage. If he really were in top shape already, he would have gone after Nibali and not wait for Kruiswijck to close the gap. If he makes it to the rest day without much timeloss, i think he'll go all out from then on. Maybe he can just sit in Mollema, Kruiswijck, Menchov... 's wheel, keeping a low profile for the time being.