Who will win the 2011 Vuelta a España?

[Swede1]

1)Nibali
2)Wiggins
3)Purito

 

[Zoncolan]

I can see Nibali And Rodriguez easily in the podium...don't know about Menchov (we'll know more as soon as tomorrow)...Perhaps Wiggins or Froome?

I almost always get these wrong, but I expect both to fade in the 3rd week.

 

[meandmygitane]

Bauke Mollema may be the biggest favourite if he continues as he have done (I hold Nibali and Wiggins [think Wiggins went to hard in the beginning of the TT] highest as of now.).

Really there is a bunch of contenders for the GC, the vuelta is wide open.
I think top 14, up to Rodriguez, can (loose defintion) win. Maybe Scarponi also but then he must do a complete turn-around after the last two days.

My favourites to win the GC as of now is:

1. Nibali
2. Wiggins
3. Mollema
4. Froome (but I have my doubts between SKY priorities and lasting 3 weeks)
5. Kessiakoff
6. Fuglsang (lost time on stage 9)
7. Menchov? Don't know really.

Tomorrow we will get so much answers:

1. Who came out of the rest day in good shape?
2. For who was the TT results influenced by TT-skill, fatigue or rising form?

This is a repost from the Rest day-thread.

 

[cineteq]

1. Who came out of the rest day in good shape?
2. For who was the TT results influenced by TT-skill, fatigue or rising form?

From your first question I'd elaborate a little more.
1. Who is in shape after 10 days + rest day of racing?
Which leads me to my final GC prediction on rest day #1.

1. Nibali
2. Rodriguez
3. Kessiakoff or Froome

The other contenders are either too young, inexperience, immature, unprepared, unmotivated or too old to be in the podium.

 

[daveinzambia]

1 Nibali
2 Wiggins
3 Mollema (this is only hope tho)

going for

1 Nibali
2 Kessiakoff
3 Wiggins

do still like Mollema's chances though

 

[WillemS]

going for

1 Nibali
2 Kessiakoff
3 Wiggins

do still like Mollema's chances though

I like Kessiakoff, he is not often given a (large) role in previews, but he's a great rider. A wonderful MTB campaign and unlike other riders of his age (31, I believe?), he is still adjusting/progressing as a road cyclist. I think that with his experience from MTB, he should be able to handle both changing and high gradients and problems with traction (not being able to stand), like on the Alto. I think it will be very hard to get him out of the top 5. Somehow, I don't think he'll be able to make second place, but I like to be surprised.

I don't want to go with Nibali, as most people are going with him already. He has, however, proved to be able to win the Vuelta, with decent time on the other contenders, except Mosquera (no, I'm not dismissing him, if we can't convict him, we shouldn't condemn him) and Mosquera is not here. He also has been relatively stable, save those power finishes. I am a bit concerned for his Angliru-performance, he did already lose some time on la Covatilla and it didn't look like energy conserving to me. But who will be the one to put time on him? He can lose over 3 minutes to Joaquin and I don't see current top-10'ers dismissing him.

But as I said, I don't want to go with Nibali, so I'll pick the unlikely Froome. I was positive he was going to be dropped on la Covatilla after working that hard for Wiggins, well, he wasn't. As it is now, you have to drop him first. That said, with the 20 second time bonus his current lead is apt to change. The bonus makes it quite unpredictable.

 

[Griotto]

Since a swede is in with a chance to win a GT I throw myself into this discussion .

Hope I´m not to biased but I think Kessiakoff has been the smartest rider so far when it comes to conserving energy. Martinelli (Astana manager) even said that he didn´t give full gas at the TT to conserve energy and wasn´t even exhausted at the finish. He has been in no real attacks and just been trying to stay relaxed and give up a few seconds here and there (but still only 30 sec of the lead). A bit dull? Absolutely, but it isn´t up to him to animate the race at this point. However if he feels fresh at the end of the second week I think he might try something.

Still, he has only been riding two GTs before (Giro and Vuelta -09) so it is quite unknown how he react during this and next week. I think in the end Nibali will win but the other spots on the podium is quite open. I go with 1. Nibali, 2. Kessiakoff and 3. Mollema

 

[profff]

last week is very easy, as it happens often at the vuelta, to allow many contenders to prepare the worlds.
normally tour and giro are decided in the third week and ability to recover and consistency play a great role.
in this vuelta , everything can be decided by the end of the second week, and this leaves the race open to outsiders and people with less gt experience.
this could be good for people like kessiakoff, but he has to attack in angliru like he did on kitzbueler horn.
he never proved to be good in recover in a three week GT, but in fact the vuelta is almost a two week GT...
This can help froome, flugslang, who never scored in GT and not in favour to people like menchow, nibali, vdb2 , who have proved to be able to ride good third weeks ,and maybe mollema , who had a good third week in 2010 giro.

 

[Lexman]

Well given the cirumstances i guess that will be podium

01. Nibali
02. Bollema
03. Wiggins

VBD will be around 5th place but i hope i'm wrong and he ends first

 

[WindLessBreeze]

Montani3Semper

Vincenzo Nibali will certainly repeat. Il'Siciliano

 

[WindLessBreeze]

Montani3Semper

Il'Siciliano Nibali will repeat the feat, that's all there is to it

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Guess I can stop watching then. cheers.

 

[Fetisoff]

Since a swede is in with a chance to win a GT I throw myself into this discussion .

Hope I´m not to biased but I think Kessiakoff has been the smartest rider so far when it comes to conserving energy. Martinelli (Astana manager) even said that he didn´t give full gas at the TT to conserve energy and wasn´t even exhausted at the finish. He has been in no real attacks and just been trying to stay relaxed and give up a few seconds here and there (but still only 30 sec of the lead). A bit dull? Absolutely, but it isn´t up to him to animate the race at this point. However if he feels fresh at the end of the second week I think he might try something.

Still, he has only been riding two GTs before (Giro and Vuelta -09) so it is quite unknown how he react during this and next week. I think in the end Nibali will win but the other spots on the podium is quite open. I go with 1. Nibali, 2. Kessiakoff and 3. Mollema

Not sure that conserving energy in a crucial time trial before a rest day is the smartest idea. Other than that, yes a very smart race, but of course just like with Wiggins, Froome, Fulglslang etc, we have to see how well he can limit his time loss on the Angry Lou. His performance on Kitbuhler Horn earlier this year could indicate that he can manage ok there, but yet again the level of competition at the oesterreich-rundfahrt is nowhere near the vuelta's

 

[cineteq]

GC (big favorites) after stage 11

WIGGINS, Bradley SKY
NIBALI, Vincenzo LIQ + 11''
KESSIAKOFF, Fredrik AST + 14''
FUGLSANG, Jakob LEO + 19''
MOLLEMA, Bauke RAB + 47''
COBO, Juan José GEO + 1' 27''
ZUBELDIA, Haimar RSH + 1' 53''
BRAJKOVIC, Janez RSH + 2' 00''
VAN DEN BROECK, Jurgen OLO + 2' 01''
RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin KAT + 2' 56''

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Vandenbroeck didn't seem good to me, was dropped momentarily in the end but just came back.

 

[Anonymous]

Il'Siciliano Nibali will repeat the feat, that's all there is to it

U a paisan?

 

[Gingerale]

now that wiggins has the leaders jersey, i don't 'feel' like anyone will take it from him but i could be over-rating wiggins and sky's ablilities on angry lou.

wiggins
nibali
someone i am not expecting

or can nibali can find the spot to take 11 seconds? i probably don't see it and am lacking belief in liquigas.

 

[luckyboy]

If I had money I would bet it all on Nibali taking 11 seconds on Wiggins.

 

[Fetisoff]

now that wiggins has the leaders jersey, i don't 'feel' like anyone will take it from him but i could be over-rating wiggins and sky's ablilities on angry lou.

wiggins
nibali
someone i am not expecting

or can nibali can find the spot to take 11 seconds? i probably don't see it and am lacking belief in liquigas.

Meh.. All he has to do is come 2nd on Angry Lou, that's all.
Wiggins won't even podium imho, I can see Kesiakoff finishing ahead of him

 

[hatcher]

If I had money I would bet it all on Nibali taking 11 seconds on Wiggins.

How much would you have lost betting against Wiggins so far though?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If I had money I would bet it all on Nibali taking 11 seconds on Wiggins.

I very much want to point out that perhaps that sort of decision making is why you don;t have any money, but in this instance it is probably a safe bet.

 

[cineteq]

Meh.. All he has to do is come 2nd on Angry Lou, that's all. Wiggins won't even podium imho, I can see Kesiakoff finishing ahead of him

+1 You called it, let me frame it right here

 

[luckyboy]

How much would you have lost betting against Wiggins so far though?

He was obviously going to somewhere in the region of where he is on GC right now. The Angliru is still to come though.

I will eat my words if he defends this lead up there. It'll be one of the biggest surprises of the year.

 

[Gingerale]

Meh.. All he has to do is come 2nd on Angry Lou, that's all.
Wiggins won't even podium imho, I can see Kesiakoff finishing ahead of him

kessiakoff. i looked him up. also others in high standings i don't know. kessiakoff is a good pick. he could be the peter velits of this vuelta.

not hopping on the wiggins bandwagon if i pick him to win. i have questions about liquigas team this vuelta and their support on angliru climb. 11 seconds shouldn't be hard for nibs but he could as easily have more bad luck or lack the good legs like on stage 9 and wiggins be stronger. i see wiggins and nibali's chances as about equal. nibali is the better descender. there could be an opportunity for a descent attack but think wiggins will be ready and counter the move.

 

[WillemS]

Well, the GC is really open, top 4 are within the bonification of 20 seconds. Nibali can take over by being second in a stage. I think we're in for an interesting few stages.