Who will win the 2013 GIRO? (Second round)

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Who will win the 2013 GIRO?

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serfla

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Dazed and Confused said:
meh, Giro much better opportunity than the Tour.
Bonus secs plus numerous uphill/MTFs in Italy will give J-Rod a real shot at the title.

Tour with a flat TT (33km) and a hilly one (32km) will put J-Rod on the back foot with no easy way to get time back as there are no bonus secs available. I would put his chance of winning the race at below 5%.

He can take on the Vuelta regardless of choosing the Giro or the Tour.
You have right about bonus seconds, but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him. He could lose 5+ minutes there. And that's really a lot.
There's a ttt in the Tour as well (as in the Giro), and keeping in mind that he'll, probably, be searching for a not so strong team in order to start the Tour, that's another stage where he'll lose some time.
Vuelta is certainly the best race for him.
 
theyoungest said:
Last year's Giro course was better for him, I think we can all agree. And he didn't win. Now with Wiggo there's a guy who will take at least 5 minutes on him in the time trials... how on earth is he going to win those back?
Last year's Giro was a better shot than this year's Tour too, and he didn't win, exactly.
 
serfla said:
but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him.
I'd say that itt is everything but straight and flat. But in any case Wiggo would take 4 minutes to him.
Now, Do we think Purito will take less than 2 minutes by AC and Froome at the Tour? Where will he take them back?
 
staubsauger said:
Talking about the Giro again. What do you think could we expect of the Ag2R duo? Could Betancur or Pozzovivo surprisingly be able to have a shot at the podium? I don't know much about the time trail abilities of Betancur. Is he capable to climb well 3 weeks also or do you think at the current point of his career he is more a classics rider.
The Betancur I saw at the 2011 Giro was still good enough after 3 weeks of racing. It depends a lot of his and Pozzovivo goals. If their aim is the GC then they have a good shot at the top 10. I don't know about Betancour, but Pozzovivo is not that weak in tting as he seems, and in the mountains he'll probably be allowed to take a lot of time back.
 
serfla said:
You have right about bonus seconds, but that tt is too long, flat and straight for him. He could lose 5+ minutes there. And that's really a lot.
There's a ttt in the Tour as well (as in the Giro), and keeping in mind that he'll, probably, be searching for a not so strong team in order to start the Tour, that's another stage where he'll lose some time.
Vuelta is certainly the best race for him.
No question the Vuelta is best suited for the Spaniard, but if he insists on starting in two GT's this year, I would recommend him going for the Giro in addition to the Vuelta. Chance of winning the Giro: 15% imo.

Note last year J-Rod lost 1min to De Gendt and Hesjedal in the final flat TT over 30km. Clearly he will lose much more to Wiggins, but so will most other contenders.
 

serfla

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Eshnar said:
I'd say that itt is everything but straight and flat. But in any case Wiggo would take 4 minutes to him.
Now, Do we think Purito will take less than 2 minutes by AC and Froome at the Tour? Where will he take them back?
You're kidding me, right?
Biggest rise of the tt is that 3,5 k's section at the end, and it's under 5%. There's also little more than 4 k's with 3% slope in the middle, and that's it. Pretty much flat, by my standards.
While the first half of the course is technical, the second consists of three, more or less, straight sections. Of which the last (the most important part of the tt) is dead straight and flat.
Very straight and flat tt. Designed for power riders. Won't be surprised at all if 55 (or even more) teeth will be ridden.

I'm not questioning his chances at the Tour... He barley has any. Just making a comment on his choice.

Edit:
Giro - Vuelta combo is better option, I agree.
 
Dazed and Confused said:
No question the Vuelta is best suited for the Spaniard, but if he insists on starting in two GT's this year, I would recommend him going for the Giro in addition to the Vuelta. Chance of winning the Giro: 15% imo.
Exactly why Purito has a better shot at Giro and Vuelta, than the Tour. Bonus secs for him are everything, which allow him to neutralize his ITT losses.

Swabian Lass said:
Them pesky colons! No problem, I understand where you were coming from now.

I agree it would have been a lot more exciting if Gesink had been trash talking though. ;)
Cool! I guess that means I won't ignore your posts. LOL. Cheers! :)
 
serfla said:
You're kidding me, right?
Biggest rise of the tt is that 3,5 k's section at the end, and it's under 5%. There's also little more than 4 k's with 3% slope in the middle, and that's it. Pretty much flat, by my standards.
The middle part is certainly flat and straight, but the first part is the same part where last year the sprinters got dropped by a Liquigas pull on stage 5 so I'd say it's not so flat. And, in any case, if that's straight then you have a strange concept of straightness.
edit: and this is the final climb
 

serfla

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Eshnar said:
The middle part is certainly flat and straight, but the first part is the same part where last year the sprinters got dropped by a Liquigas pull on stage 5 so I'd say it's not so flat. And, in any case, if that's straight then you have a strange concept of straightness.
edit: and this is the final climb
How would you call section from Pesaro over Fano to Calcinelli? Straight or technical?
Regarding "flatness", no matter if sprinters were dropped, small ring won't be needed there. Very, very modest vertical gains.
That really isn't Purito's cup of tea.
I really have impression you're pulling my leg.
 
Dazed and Confused said:
If the Giro last year had bonus secs, J-Rod would have won.
If Garmin hasn't chased instead of Katjoesja at the Stelvio stage, Thomas De Gendt would have won ;)

It happened as it happened and Rodriguez still could've easily managed to win the Giro if he just had risk one prober attack!
 
serfla said:
How would you call section from Pesaro over Fano to Calcinelli? Straight or technical?
Already told you.
Eshnar said:
The middle part is certainly flat and straight
serfla said:
Regarding "flatness", no matter if sprinters were dropped, small ring won't be needed there. Very, very modest vertical gains.
That really isn't Purito's cup of tea.
indeed I wrote
Eshnar said:
in any case Wiggo would take 4 minutes to him.
So I didn't say that it is a Mountain time trial, nor that Purito will win it.
serfla said:
I really have impression you're pulling my leg.
Maybe you're a bit too nervous. I just said that the ITT is not 'too long, flat and straight', unless you meant 'too long, flat and straight for Purito to win it', in that case I agree and would say the same thing for any time trial ever.
 

serfla

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Eshnar said:
I just said that the ITT is not 'too long, flat and straight', unless you meant 'too long, flat and straight for Purito to win it', in that case I agree and would say the same thing for any time trial ever.
We were talking about Purito's chances, weren't we?
So, it's too long, flat and straight for him to keep chances for the GC.

Generally, it's long, rather straight and not flat only if you're Grabsch.
 

serfla

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Dazed and Confused said:
just curious, do you even see anyone capable of challenging Wiggins in the Giro?
Depends.
Wiggo in last year's shape will be unbeatable.
Otherwise, Nibali can beat him. Then, there's Hesjedal, behind him Purito, Basso, Scarponi, Sanchez...
And, of course, Contador can beat him in any case, but I doubt he'll target the Giro.
It really depends on who's targeting Giro this season. For now, we know it's just Nibali, and Hesjedal to certain extent.
 

serfla

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Eshnar said:
Apart from Wiggo, I don't see Purito losing that much time with respect to any other GT contender.
Maybe not that much, but just enough to lose chance for overall victory.
He's not that better than Nibali&Co. in the mountains.
 
serfla said:
Depends.
Wiggo in last year's shape will be unbeatable.
Otherwise, Nibali can beat him. Then, there's Hesjedal, behind him Purito, Basso, Scarponi, Sanchez...
And, of course, Contador can beat him in any case, but I doubt he'll target the Giro.
It really depends on who's targeting Giro this season. For now, we know it's just Nibali, and Hesjedal to certain extent.
Agree, Wiggins in '12 form will be brutal, but even riders in good form can have a bad day or incident. Perhaps its my desire to see an additional dimension in the Giro GC battle which drives the J-Rod discussion as I see his participation in the Tour as adding limited value.
 
serfla said:
Depends.
Wiggo in last year's shape will be unbeatable.
Otherwise, Nibali can beat him. Then, there's Hesjedal, behind him Purito, Basso, Scarponi, Sanchez...
And, of course, Contador can beat him in any case, but I doubt he'll target the Giro.
It really depends on who's targeting Giro this season. For now, we know it's just Nibali, and Hesjedal to certain extent.
As I mentioned earlier: Franco Pellizotti

(I rate him higher than Basso, Scarponi or Hesjedal)
 
Eshnar said:
In the sprints he is :eek:
agree, and if we take stage 20 from the Giro last year, J-Rod even took real time on the other "real" contenders. Stage result below:

1 DE GENDT, Thomas (VACANSOLEIL-DCM) 6:54:41
2 CUNEGO, Damiano (LAMPRE - ISD) + 0:55
3 NIEVE ITURALDE, Mikel (EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI) + 2:49
4 RODRIGUEZ OLIVER, Joaquin (KATUSHA) + 3:22
5 SCARPONI, Michele (LAMPRE - ISD) + 3:33
6 HESJEDAL, Ryder (GARMIN-BARRACUDA) + 3:35
7 GADRET, John (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 4:27
8 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (SKY PROCYCLING) + 4:53
9 HENAO MONTOYA, Sergio Luis (SKY PROCYCLING) + 4:54
10 BASSO, Ivan (LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE)

I think J-Rod in '12 form is underrated if the mountains are raced conservative and "group oriented".
 
Jan 11, 2010
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Dazed and Confused said:
agree, and if we take stage 20 from the Giro last year, J-Rod even took real time on the other "real" contenders. Stage result below:

1 DE GENDT, Thomas (VACANSOLEIL-DCM) 6:54:41
2 CUNEGO, Damiano (LAMPRE - ISD) + 0:55
3 NIEVE ITURALDE, Mikel (EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI) + 2:49
4 RODRIGUEZ OLIVER, Joaquin (KATUSHA) + 3:22
5 SCARPONI, Michele (LAMPRE - ISD) + 3:33
6 HESJEDAL, Ryder (GARMIN-BARRACUDA) + 3:35
7 GADRET, John (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 4:27
8 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (SKY PROCYCLING) + 4:53
9 HENAO MONTOYA, Sergio Luis (SKY PROCYCLING) + 4:54
10 BASSO, Ivan (LIQUIGAS-CANNONDALE)

I think J-Rod in '12 form is underrated if the mountains are raced conservative and "group oriented".
After sucking wheel for the entire climb. A bit like the Tourmalet in the Tour 2010. I.e. what he did there he can also do in the Tour.
 
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