Who will win the 2014 Vuelta?

[Netserk]

That would be amazing. He has a great team to back him.



Lol what? Some people really try their best to vilify Valverde. He asked for leadership, he was given it due to his status within the team - one last chance to aim at a Tour podium finish. He didn't demand it.

Sorry for going off topic.

 

[Jspear]

Dan Martin for a top 5 finish.

Anyone know what Ryder's goals are or how his form is? If he is in good shape I think he will place higher than Marin. He has a better track record over 3 weeks.

 

[BigMac]

Anyone know what Ryder's goals are or how his form is? If he is in good shape I think he will place higher than Marin. He has a better track record over 3 weeks.

Certainly to support Daniel? Ryder had his chance at the Giro following Martin's DNF, and Talansky is still healing from his Tour injuries (?). They should support Dan.

Image

C'mon, don't go all Ryo on me. What do you mean with that?

 

[May0maniac]

Since the Vuelta is often won by the freshest rider, let's look at the number of days that a few of the favorites raced durning the whole season:
Aru: 13 race days + Giro
Quintana: 24 race days + Giro
Uran: 29 race days + Giro
Talansky: 29 race days + 12 Tour Stages
Froome: 33 race days + 5 Tour stages
Purito: 34 race days + Tour
Kreuziger: 33 race days
Valverde: 31 race days + Tour
Kelderman: 31 race days + Giro
Dan Martin: 27 race days and the giro TTT
Papi Horner: 22 race days + Tour

 

[ILovecycling]

snapped..

Lol what? Some people really try their best to vilify Valverde. He asked for leadership, he was given it due to his status within the team - one last chance to aim at a Tour podium finish. He didn't demand it.

Sorry for going off topic.

serious?

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Since the Vuelta is often won by the freshest rider, let's look at the number of days that a few of the favorites raced durning the whole season:
Aru: 13 race days + Giro
Quintana: 24 race days + Giro
Uran: 29 race days + Giro
Talansky: 29 race days + 12 Tour Stages
Froome: 33 race days + 5 Tour stages
Purito: 34 race days + Tour
Kreuziger: 33 race days
Valverde: 31 race days + Tour
Kelderman: 31 race days + Giro
Dan Martin: 27 race days and the giro TTT
Papi Horner: 22 race days + Tour

Aru ftw win then

 

[Arnout]

I'm actually becoming a fan of Papy Horner

 

[Afrank]

Re. the Valverde debate: Even if he did demand leadership he would be perfectly entitled to do so. Movistar has 2 leaders for GT's and both are viable leaders that can win/podium/top 10.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re. the Valverde debate: Even if he did demand leadership he would be perfectly entitled to do so. Movistar has 2 leaders for GT's and both are viable leaders that can win/podium/top 10.

Only one of them can do this...so he is/was (rather was as Unzue prob abandoned Valverde bandwagon after this Tour) entitled only by team 'legend' status.

 

[Anderis]

Certainly to support Daniel? Ryder had his chance at the Giro following Martin's DNF, and Talansky is still healing from his Tour injuries (?). They should support Dan.

I do think I've read once that pre-season assumptions were Martin for Giro, Talansky for Tour and Hesjedal for Vuelta.

And it makes sense. Ryder had his worst spring in recent years by far this year. Maybe that's because he intended to peak in the second half of the season?

Nonetheless, I think it will be all determined by who will perform the best during first mountain stages. And I think there will be 2, if not 3 riders, who won't be sacrificed for each other as long as they aren't over with GC hope. (they can end up doing some work, but only from a very selected group at the end of the stage, so they don't lose much in GC)

 

[Escarabajo]

Since the Vuelta is often won by the freshest rider, let's look at the number of days that a few of the favorites raced durning the whole season:
Aru: 13 race days + Giro
Quintana: 24 race days + Giro
Uran: 29 race days + Giro
Talansky: 29 race days + 12 Tour Stages
Froome: 33 race days + 5 Tour stages
Purito: 34 race days + Tour
Kreuziger: 33 race days
Valverde: 31 race days + Tour
Kelderman: 31 race days + Giro
Dan Martin: 27 race days and the giro TTT
Papi Horner: 22 race days + Tour

Andy Schleck for the win!!

 

[BigMac]

Only one of them can do this...so he is/was (rather was as Unzue prob abandoned Valverde bandwagon after this Tour) entitled only by team 'legend' status.

And? Valverde has given much to that team ever since he joined. Asking for one last chance at leading the Tour and aiming at the podium is far from being a demand. Quintana went to the Giro and won. He was the obvious pre-race favourite and I'm sure he his happy with having raced there instead of Le Tour, since in normal circumstances, Froome and Contador would have been in the latter as well to contest it. There was a big chance he would not have won the Tour. At the end of the day, it was a logical and reasonable decision to send Nairo to the Giro, let him gain more Grand Tour experience, and allow Valverde what he rightly deserves. When Quintana was assigned to the Giro, it wasn't just Nibali supposed to contest Le Tour. Certainly, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[cineteq]

Haven't voted yet. Are you sure Talansky is not going for GC?

 

[durtyfat]

Haven't voted yet. Are you sure Talansky is not going for GC?

Yes. Well, Vaughters confirmed that Talansky will ride the Vuelta to support Hesjedal and Martin.

 

[Jspear]

Haven't voted yet. Are you sure Talansky is not going for GC?

Talansky wanted to ride support to pay back the support they have given him.

 

[ILovecycling]

And? Valverde has given much to that team ever since he joined. Asking for one last chance at leading the Tour and aiming at the podium is far from being a demand. Quintana went to the Giro and won. He was the obvious pre-race favourite and I'm sure he his happy with having raced there instead of Le Tour, since in normal circumstances, Froome and Contador would have been in the latter as well to contest it. There was a big chance he would not have won the Tour. At the end of the day, it was a logical and reasonable decision to send Nairo to the Giro, let him gain more Grand Tour experience, and allow Valverde what he rightly deserves. When Quintana was assigned to the Giro, it wasn't just Nibali supposed to contest Le Tour. Certainly, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Hey I understand man.I just think this was a Demand.When you have a multiple gt winner prospect in your team and the other rider best result is 7th place, from this race duhh...Quintana didnt want to ride a Giro,so Valverde demanded full leadership for Tour in off season.

Otoh Im in a full agreement on that decision.I think it was a good one by Unzue.Valverde proved he is inept of a GT podium in this age.And not that Quintana would have won Tour (who knows) but he needs to gain experience of leadership at smaller GT than Tour imo.

 

[ILovecycling]

As for the poll.Im not sure if you guys seen the parcours.More than 50% people for Quintana,ehhm weird...

 

[xanadu]

If Horner podiums after riding le Tour my love affair wirth this sport will cease and you will find me on the tiddlywinks forum

 

[cineteq]

Talansky wanted to ride support to pay back the support they have given him.

Read that, but unless he's really hurt, he and/or JV should start thinking of that possibility. Martin and Hesjedal have near-zero chance to podium La Vuelta. Plus it will be really hard for Talansky to ever win the TdF. This is it!

 

[Angliru]

Hey I understand man.I just think this was a Demand.When you have a multiple gt winner prospect in your team and the other rider best result is 7th place, from this race duhh...Quintana didnt want to ride a Giro,so Valverde demanded full leadership for Tour in off season.

Otoh Im in a full agreement on that decision.I think it was a good one by Unzue.Valverde proved he is inept of a GT podium in this age.And not that Quintana would have won Tour (who knows) but he needs to gain experience of leadership at smaller GT than Tour imo.

I don't agree that it was likely a demand. Out of respect for what he's brought to the team in terms of victories over the course of his career, I think that Unzue decided that this would be his swansong at the Tour. Last year quite likely could have been it, but his drop in the standings due to his unfortunate flat, put an end to that. At the time he showing to be in fine form. Additionally it's obvious that Quintana and he get along fairly well for them to be roommates at the Tour in 2013. Additionally while Quintana obviously wasn't happy with the decision because he wanted to continue in his Tour success from his 2nd place in 2013, there's no doubt that he's happy with his Giro win. I don't think they really anticipated Quintana to go so well at the Tour and reach the 2nd step of the podium. They're known for the slow development of their young talent but Quintana's talent is so immense they just couldn't hold him back once the opportunity at the Tour presented itself.

 

[Rollthedice]

Hey I understand man.I just think this was a Demand.When you have a multiple gt winner prospect in your team and the other rider best result is 7th place, from this race duhh...Quintana didnt want to ride a Giro,so Valverde demanded full leadership for Tour in off season.

Otoh Im in a full agreement on that decision.I think it was a good one by Unzue.Valverde proved he is inept of a GT podium in this age.And not that Quintana would have won Tour (who knows) but he needs to gain experience of leadership at smaller GT than Tour imo.

Unzue said after Giro

"That's why I think the decision we took was really wise. And because of this, I want to highlight the importance of Telefónica back in the early season, giving up on having Nairo riding the Tour, with all that meant. I want to thank them for that, because such confidence and patience in that crucial moment allowed for this success to come.

So, the sponsors weren't too happy to see Quintana in Giro and I don't think than Valverde is more influential than the guys who pay this team. On the other hand I think it was the right decision for Nairo. It was his first experience as a GT leader in every aspect and to be honest the way this Tour proved to be, a difficult one for all the resons, I don't think he would have had the chance to win it.

 

[the sceptic]

As for the poll.Im not sure if you guys seen the parcours.More than 50% people for Quintana,ehhm weird...

Is there a stage analysis thread somewhere? I assume its 15 flat stages ending with a 1km uphill sprint but Im too lazy to look it up myself..

 

[Escarabajo]

Is there a stage analysis thread somewhere? I assume its 15 flat stages ending with a 1km uphill sprint but Im too lazy to look it up myself..

Yeah, this year they said they were going to do it different, so instead of 14 sprints uphill they did 15.

If it wasn't for Quintana, I would not bother with this GT. Hopefully I get to see the other Colombian young hopefuls.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I can't see beyond Quintana and Froome. But before the Tour it was hard not to pick Contador or Froome and we all know what happened. If Froome is in 100 percent form then he could be favoured thanks to time trials on stage 10 and 21 (assuming they are close in the mountains). However I voted for Quintana because he's been preparing for Vuelta for a long time.

 

[Anderis]

Talansky wanted to ride support to pay back the support they have given him.

I think that is rather kind of PR from Vaughters than the real state of things. JV said that Talansky wanted to pay back the support he got from Dan Martin at the TdF2013. But Dan Martin wasn't actually helping Talansky too much then. Until stage 18, it was Dan who was the better prospect for GC place from these two and it was Andrew who was doing the work for him, not the other way around. Then Martin got ill and was too weak to provide support to Talansky in the last 3 days anyway.

Talansky didn't have a problem with crashing frequently before TdF2014. It may be that he couldn't cope with the pressure of being perceived as a serious podium contender for the biggest cycling race and the sole team leader. And maybe Vaughters tries to lessen the pressure on him for Vuelta saying he is not there for a result.