Who Will Win the 2015 Vuelta a Espana?

[Ramon Koran]

Can't see anyone other than Froome to be honest, aru, majka, chaves, Quintana and purito will lose minutes in the time trial, Valverde is not in good enough shape and dumoulin's form over 3 weeks is an unknown. Shame nibali was kicked out as he would be able to give a real challenge.

 

[Red Rick]

It depends so much on the next 24 hours. Hoping for one of the new guys.

I'm thinking Quintana, Aru or maybe Majka

Really hoping for Dumoulin though.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I voted Froome but it's still very open. Quintana is the biggest threat in my opinion. Aru is a question mark for me. Rodriguez and Majka I think will do well. Valverde I think will crack.

 

[AlexNYC]

I don't think there's enough information to make a good choice. I feel a lot more confident saying who will not win; in ascending order from least to most likely: Majka, Dumoulin, Chaves, Purito, Piti. That leaves me with Aru, Quintana, and Froome.

 

[fungusbear]

I don't really know, but I think Aru will win. I would prefer it if he didn't, however.

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't get this froome hype. Of course its probable that he wins if he will be on the level of stage 9 from now on, but IMO thats not really likely. He never is very good in the last week of a gt and I think in back to back gt's he might get even worse. In 2012 he was better placed after the first week and in one stage he got 13 seconds on Contador on a little uphill finish. I don't want to say that its unlikely that he can win, but saying you can't see anyone beating him seems a little bit strange to me.

 

[BigMac]

Chris Froome will rwin this bike race.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't get this froome hype. Of course its probable that he wins if he will be on the level of stage 9 from now on, but IMO thats not really likely. He never is very good in the last week of a gt and I think in back to back gt's he might get even worse. In 2012 he was better placed after the first week and in one stage he got 13 seconds on Contador on a little uphill finish. I don't want to say that its unlikely that he can win, but saying you can't see anyone beating him seems a little bit strange to me.

Yeah,

I think that different riders are generally good at certain terrains whilst they need absolute top shape to perform on all terrains.

 

[yespatterns]

I went with Aru, mainly because of freshness, but I really have no idea what to expect. I'm definitely enjoying the openess of the race though.

 

[Escarabajo]

According to the polls the podium will be like this:

1- Froome
2- Aru
3- Quintana

 

[bbaker22]

Voted Quintana with my heart, but my mind is saying Aru or Froome. Tomorrow will help with future predictions...

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

Cannot see Froome winning it, after his display on the 7th stage. One thing is sprinting up short climbs in the first week of a GT, another thing is surviving the 3rd week with a Tour in his legs.
Quintana should be better in the 3rd week,

Quintana has just as much chance of fading as Froome does though, added to that Quintana has never raced back to back GT's before so he is into the unknown. He may be ok of course, but I think he will fade.

I think it will be won by Aru who is much fresher than the Tour riders.

 

[Koba80]

Head says Aru, Majka, One of the Movis
Heart says: Dutch Tommy D, complete outsider (eg de Clerq), Vino option

 

[Afrank]

Re:

Aru, for the sole reason that I like him as a rider. And because it's so open and there's no argument that puts one rider a much greater edge over another.

I hope dumoulin wins, it would be hilarious.

Can't deny, I would enjoy seeing that.

 

[42x16ss]

Hard to go past Aru and Majka considering their relative freshness. Hard to see Dumoulin and Chaves still being in contention after Stage 11. At least one of Froome/Valverde/Quintana to blow up. Purito may as well.

 

[BrentonOfTheNorth]

Biggest question for me tomorrow is if or how badly Froome will drop Dumoulin.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

As usual, I voted for whom I want to win. (Dumoulin)

But I honestly think it's unpredictable, atleast before tomorrow.

 

[orangerider]

Looks to me that Froome will pull it off unless he crashes. Piti is looking less dominant than he would normally be to be a top choice. Quintaka appears fatigued and may feel obligated to soft pedal to help a struggling Piti. I just don't see Majka doing it for GC - a stage win or two is the goal here. Aru's attacking style will wear him out and leave him in stage hunting as well. Purito, perhaps, but will need a miracle for him to actually be #1 instead of #2. Chaves hasn't built up the stamina required for 3 week GCs so will fade, but good hopes for the future with the guy. Dumoulin - the climbs to come are too hard.

 

[hfer07]

If logical thinking was applied - it would indicate that neither Froome, nor Nairito would win it, since both are "suppose to be tire from the Tour" and therefore Aru & Landa* were the rightful candidates for the overall title ... but then again... this is the "New Clean Pro Cycling era" that we're dealing with

I recall back in 2012 when Froome was committed to win La Vuelta after his runner up Tour spot and the Wiggo affair- back then he showed good form during the first testy stages, but then he literally blew up completely halfway the race & during the last week - so that is the reference we're taking in consideration for his real aspirations to this year' title.....

Then is Nairito- he's done this past tour as his main objective for the year and ended up behind Froome....
He was "progressively getting stronger towards the last week" and almost pulled it off.... the real question is -how much energy did he spend in the Tour? is he fully empty or could he "repeat the same strategy in the Vuelta, by getting stronger in the last week too?

and last there is the Angel Aru...... last year he performed really well during La Vuelta after his Giro's 3rd place, so that means he can recover well and perform well too doing the Giro-Vuelta combo...... but the big issue about Fabio isn't about performing great and winning stages- the big question is can he win a GT yet?

PS: perhaps this is wishful thinking, but can Purito finally win a GT?

 

[Ruby United]

Either Froome or Aru; I feel that the lack of hard-core mountain stages from stage 16 favors Froome and, though I'm probably being biased, I'm going with Froome

 

[Singer01]

If logical thinking was applied - it would indicate that neither Froome, nor Nairito would win it, since both are "suppose to be tire from the Tour" and therefore Aru & Landa* were the rightful candidates for the overall title ... but then again... this is the "New Clean Pro Cycling era" that we're dealing with

I recall back in 2012 when Froome was committed to win La Vuelta after his runner up Tour spot and the Wiggo affair- back then he showed good form during the first testy stages, but then he literally blew up completely halfway the race & during the last week - so that is the reference we're taking in consideration for his real aspirations to this year' title.....

Then is Nairito- he's done this past tour as his main objective for the year and ended up behind Froome....
He was "progressively getting stronger towards the last week" and almost pulled it off.... the real question is -how much energy did he spend in the Tour? is he fully empty or could he "repeat the same strategy in the Vuelta, by getting stronger in the last week too?

and last there is the Angel Aru...... last year he performed really well during La Vuelta after his Giro's 3rd place, so that means he can recover well and perform well too doing the Giro-Vuelta combo...... but the big issue about Fabio isn't about performing great and winning stages- the big question is can he win a GT yet?

PS: perhaps this is wishful thinking, but can Purito finally win a GT?

NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!!!

 

[jens_attacks]

eh vedremo dai!

 

[WheelofGear]

Dumoulin 50% (if he pace himself instead killing himself by responding to the attacks from Aru.. I think he could limit his loses very well before the TT where he is going to gain perhaps 5 minutes)
Aru 45% (Landa is crucial.. he could cost Aru his overall win if he decides to ride for himself instead of being there with Aru)
Other 5%

 

[Escarabajo]

Dumoulin 50%. And I will increase by 10% every mountain stage that he survives without losing much time.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Dumoulin 50%. And I will increase by 10% every mountain stage that he survives without losing much time.

I agree, should do the same thing he did yesterday. Instead of responding to the attacks and blow up. That's the best recipe for success. I don't know if you agree, but I think Aru's chances will depend on Landa's commitment.