Who Will Win the 2015 Vuelta a Espana?

[bassano]

You are so much overrated dumoulin, he never raced GT for real, you really think he will survive another mountains? He will be glad for top 5 and I do not bleieve in that either, he survived several not so hard stages and one very hard one, but it was only first big effort another one will be worse
And 5 min gained on 39 km ITT? you really need to wake up, 2 minutes is quite real
and Aru liquidated his enemies even without Landa, with him could do much more damage if he did not crack, he is still young

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

You are so much overrated dumoulin, he never raced GT for real, you really think he will survive another mountains? He will be glad for top 5 and I do not bleieve in that either, he survived several not so hard stages and one very hard one, but it was only first big effort another one will be worse
And 5 min gained on 39 km ITT? you really need to wake up, 2 minutes is quite real
and Aru liquidated his enemies even without Landa, with him could do much more damage if he did not crack, he is still young

You know that it's a guy who is almost as strong as Tony Martin in TT we are talking about. Even with 3 punctures, we he will gain 2 minutes. It's 40k.. not 14, FFS.

Aru has to do the same trick in the next stages in order to win overall. Attack, attack and attack. He need a 3 minute gap at least.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

You are so much overrated dumoulin, he never raced GT for real, you really think he will survive another mountains? He will be glad for top 5 and I do not bleieve in that either, he survived several not so hard stages and one very hard one, but it was only first big effort another one will be worse
And 5 min gained on 39 km ITT? you really need to wake up, 2 minutes is quite real
and Aru liquidated his enemies even without Landa, with him could do much more damage if he did not crack, he is still young

5 minutes is too much, 2 minutes is too little He'll gain 3-3.30 minutes I think. And yes, I personally believe that he will be able to limit his losses in the next mountain stages as well.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

You are so much overrated dumoulin, he never raced GT for real, you really think he will survive another mountains? He will be glad for top 5 and I do not bleieve in that either, he survived several not so hard stages and one very hard one, but it was only first big effort another one will be worse
And 5 min gained on 39 km ITT? you really need to wake up, 2 minutes is quite real
and Aru liquidated his enemies even without Landa, with him could do much more damage if he did not crack, he is still young

You know that it's a guy who is almost as strong as Tony Martin in TT we are talking about. Even with 3 punctures, we he will gain 2 minutes. It's 40k.. not 14, FFS.

Aru has to do the same trick in the next stages in order to win overall. Attack, attack and attack. He need a 3 minute gap at least.

I don't think Aru needs 3 minutes.

Father fatigue plays his role in a 3rd week. Dumoulin will get less time then in a normal TT, where he doesn't fight for GC and can 'rest' for a few days.

I think Kyrienka will win the TT tbh. And Dumoulin to get 2 minutes on Aru and Purito. Not much more.

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin has less than 5% chance of winning. And that includes Aru pulling an Anton.

 

[WheelofGear]

Dude, Dumoulin is Tony's successor. This is his discipline. Gaining minutes shouldn't be a problem. Even if he is tired. He will normally take 6 or 7 minutes on a guy like Chaves in such a long time trial.

They still need A LOT more time than they have now. It comes down to things like crucial time bonuses. Attacking from the bottom of the MTF, downhill or on the penultimate climb are other good options.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Dumoulin has less than 5% chance of winning. And that includes Aru pulling an Anton.

In that case, Aru has about 95% chance of winning.

It's more like 50/50. Dumoulin is doing a Ryder.

 

[WheelofGear]

42% Aru
42% Dumoulin
6% An outsider

Any better estimation?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

42% Aru
42% Dumoulin
6% An outsider

Any better estimation?

Since you are just at 92%, almost any estimation would be better lol

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

42% Aru
42% Dumoulin
6% An outsider

Any better estimation?

Since you are just at 92%, almost any estimation would be better lol

Haha my mistake and yours too since I was at 90%. I forgot to include Quintana who I still have at 10%.

TD, 42%
FA, 42%
NQ, 10%
Rest, 6%

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Purito 45%
Aru 40%
Majka 5%
Dumoulin 5%
other 5%

 

[dacooley]

i think fabio aru will finish it very confortably.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe need a new poll?

 

[damian13ster]

Aru 35%
Dumoulin30%
Rodriguez 20%
Majka 14%
Others 1%

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

42% Aru
42% Dumoulin
6% An outsider

Any better estimation?

Since you are just at 92%, almost any estimation would be better lol

Haha my mistake and yours too since I was at 90%. I forgot to include Quintana who I still have at 10%.

TD, 42%
FA, 42%
NQ, 10%
Rest, 6%

Quintana, the guy who is 3 minutes back? I think 45 Aru, 40 Dumoulin (Not sure about his recovery) and Purito 10. If tom stays within 2:30 minutes then he wins. 2:30-3:00 it is very close, maybe just the edge to Dumoulin. Over 3 minutes then Aru. Aru only lost 2:30 to Kiry and Bertie who are very good TT-ers in GTs in a 60km TT. Add a minute or so for extra talent then take away 30-45 seconds because of less distance is how I'm working out my predicted time difference. Anyway, Tom is better at hilly time trials.

 

[Velolover2]

Aru 50%
TD 25%
Purito 12%
Majka 8%
Other 5%

 

[LaFlorecita]

Aru 50%
Dumoulin 25%
Rodriguez 18%
Majka 12%
Other 5%
My very scientific estimations

I think Aru will lose 2 minutes max in the ITT. He lost 2'45" to Alberto in the Giro in 60kms.

 

[SeriousSam]

According to the market odds, Aru sits at about 70% chance to win. Tom ranges form 20% to 12%, and Purito 16% to 7%.

Purito has a great to win if Aru crashes or something but won't win on strength. Even should Aru falter, he is a renowned artist of recovery and will just go faster the next day.

The only real question mark is whether Tom can annihilate Aru in the TT for huge time and somehow minimise losses in the remaining mountain stages.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Purito 45%
Aru 40%
Majka 5%
Dumoulin 5%
other 5%

You don't believe those numbers, do you?

 

[Escarabajo]

Aru: 40%
TD: 40%
Other: 20%

I just posted 50% before but I forgot to account for the other riders chances.

 

[Mr.White]

Fabio Aru will not win this bike race!

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

According to the market odds, Aru sits at about 70% chance to win. Tom ranges form 20% to 12%, and Purito 16% to 7%.

Purito has a great to win if Aru crashes or something but won't win on strength. Even should Aru falter, he is a renowned artist of recovery and will just go faster the next day.

The only real question mark is whether Tom can annihilate Aru in the TT for huge time and somehow minimise losses in the remaining mountain stages.

Aru only one +ev there I think

 

[SafeBet]

Aru 60%
Majka 20%
Purito 10%
Tommy D 5%
Others 5%

 

[Red Rick]

Aru 50%
Dumoulin 25%
Rodriguez 18%
Majka 12%
Other 5%
My very scientific estimations

I think Aru will lose 2 minutes max in the ITT. He lost 2'45" to Alberto in the Giro in 60kms.

Where's the CI's ?

 

[damian13ster]

Aru 50%
Dumoulin 25%
Rodriguez 18%
Majka 12%
Other 5%
My very scientific estimations

I think Aru will lose 2 minutes max in the ITT. He lost 2'45" to Alberto in the Giro in 60kms.

Where's the CI's ?

Personally I am more worried about 105% chance that a winner will be one of the top 4 in current GC
But it is fairly similar to my prediction, except I believe Dumoulin is almost as likely to win as Aru