- Apr 16, 2009
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Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Dumoulin to win the Vuelta. Great effort to hold on today. The climbers are all in survival mode. The way Dumoulin held on today tells me is is primed for a strong TT which should be enough to overhaul the deficit then defend until Madrid. Kudos I like to see fighters - more impressive that he is still so young and could hang tough with pure climbers in this viciously mountainous version of the Vuelta.
- Aug 31, 2012
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According to the infinite wisdom of the bookies, it's a proper neck on neck race between Fabio and Tom.
If Tom reclaims the red jersey coming out of the ITT, what sort of gap do we consider insurmountable?
If Tom reclaims the red jersey coming out of the ITT, what sort of gap do we consider insurmountable?
Re:
"Insurmountable" is a tough call. I doubt he can come out of the TT with an insurmountable lead (unless something crazy happens). All it takes is one semi-bad day on the couple of tricky stages left and any TT advantage will be gone.
SeriousSam said:
"Insurmountable" is a tough call. I doubt he can come out of the TT with an insurmountable lead (unless something crazy happens). All it takes is one semi-bad day on the couple of tricky stages left and any TT advantage will be gone.
- Apr 16, 2009
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I think the real problem that Tom will face is not having a team. But we'll see because by the way other teams are riding they are gifting it to him.
If he does have a all advantage , won't be more than a minute! Other teams especially Astana will attack him like crazy
Aru will win this
Aru will win this
Re:
I think Aru should be the favorite here too. If the TT was the last stage, maybe not, but it isn't.
chamber34 said:
I think Aru should be the favorite here too. If the TT was the last stage, maybe not, but it isn't.
Re:
Over one minute. But it is unlikely, unless Tom will destroy everybody tomorrowSeriousSam said:
- Aug 16, 2011
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Dumoulin will definitely be going all out tomorrow to gain as much time on Purito and Aru as possible. It's his best chance. So after that, assuming he takes back red, it's going to be up to Katusha and Astana (maybe Saxo and some other teams depending on how much things move around in the GC) to attack him like crazy in the remaining stages in the hope of cracking him.
Dumoulins actually in a pretty difficult situation, he has to go all out in the TT but the harder he will push himself the more he will increase the risk of blowing up somewhere in the final 3 stages.
Dumoulins actually in a pretty difficult situation, he has to go all out in the TT but the harder he will push himself the more he will increase the risk of blowing up somewhere in the final 3 stages.
- Jul 25, 2012
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Domoulin needs to beat them by at least three minutes tomorrow and then hope he doesn't lose time the next day. Then its all down to another big stage and whether he can hold on. I'm really not sure he can do it, but at least the racing is still on!
- Jul 25, 2012
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I haven't been this excited for a TT in awhile. Dumoulin looked incredible that last stage, so my earlier doubts about his fatigue level have been somewhat quieted. I still think it's possible he could blow and feel the effects of the two weeks, but I don't think it's as certain as it seemed to me days ago. He continues to surprise.
Adding to the intrigue of the TT are the statements that it's harder than it looked in the road book... Dumoulin says he likes a lumpier TT anyway, but that's maybe to his advantage against Tony Martin. Against Purito and Aru, I'd have to imagine that's to his disadvantage, at least compared to a pan-flat TT. Good ol' Vuelta and its misleading profiles.
The thing is, conventional wisdom would suggest that Dumoulin will be a bit in front after the stage, which I said last week would lead to exciting racing coming to the end. But how much he's ahead doesn't really matter, because I think on those last stages you're either going to gain time on the descent or you're not. Like, nobody's going to put more than 30 seconds into him on these low-gradient climbs, so you've gotta sustain it or stretch it out on the descent. My first thought would be the heavier Dumoulin has the advantage going down hill, but I really don't know what his skills are like. On the other hand, it's much more likely that they'll gain time on him on the moderate gradients than the other way around, because Giant is much weaker than Astana, Saxo and even Katusha, and a team counts on 7% for longer than it does on 15%.
The most likely outcome after the TT, I think, is Dumoulin up about a minute on Aru and about 1:30 to Purito, with Majka right behind that. But there's a lot of variance, depending on how hard it actually is, if Aru has improved in the TT, if Purito is going to ride like 2010 Vuelta or 2012 Giro, etc.
Here's how I see the overall odds as of now:
Dumoulin 50% - it's his to lose, and he'll most likely do that in the TT if he's going to do that. The most appropriate thing, after two weeks of exceeding expectations, would be if he didn't live up to them here.
Aru 30% - still a good chance and within his grasp, if he's ahead of everyone after the TT he's got it, if not then it's a dice roll.
Purito 15% - He's already gone through his type of terrain and not been able to get more than a few seconds overall. He's the most questionable in the TT. He's the rider least suited to attacking from far out and trying to get time on a downhill for the rest of the race. But I dunno, I can't help but think that he knows this is his last and best chance at a GT, and that's gotta count for something. He's got experience and determination and he looks solid. I don't think it's impossible he's still in red at the end of the TT, even if unlikely.
Majka/field 5% - Majka's a good TTer, but he hasn't really gained any time on Aru or Purito in the mountains yet, so he's gonna have to be a real good TTer to hold off Dumoulin and overcome the other 2.
Adding to the intrigue of the TT are the statements that it's harder than it looked in the road book... Dumoulin says he likes a lumpier TT anyway, but that's maybe to his advantage against Tony Martin. Against Purito and Aru, I'd have to imagine that's to his disadvantage, at least compared to a pan-flat TT. Good ol' Vuelta and its misleading profiles.
The thing is, conventional wisdom would suggest that Dumoulin will be a bit in front after the stage, which I said last week would lead to exciting racing coming to the end. But how much he's ahead doesn't really matter, because I think on those last stages you're either going to gain time on the descent or you're not. Like, nobody's going to put more than 30 seconds into him on these low-gradient climbs, so you've gotta sustain it or stretch it out on the descent. My first thought would be the heavier Dumoulin has the advantage going down hill, but I really don't know what his skills are like. On the other hand, it's much more likely that they'll gain time on him on the moderate gradients than the other way around, because Giant is much weaker than Astana, Saxo and even Katusha, and a team counts on 7% for longer than it does on 15%.
The most likely outcome after the TT, I think, is Dumoulin up about a minute on Aru and about 1:30 to Purito, with Majka right behind that. But there's a lot of variance, depending on how hard it actually is, if Aru has improved in the TT, if Purito is going to ride like 2010 Vuelta or 2012 Giro, etc.
Here's how I see the overall odds as of now:
Dumoulin 50% - it's his to lose, and he'll most likely do that in the TT if he's going to do that. The most appropriate thing, after two weeks of exceeding expectations, would be if he didn't live up to them here.
Aru 30% - still a good chance and within his grasp, if he's ahead of everyone after the TT he's got it, if not then it's a dice roll.
Purito 15% - He's already gone through his type of terrain and not been able to get more than a few seconds overall. He's the most questionable in the TT. He's the rider least suited to attacking from far out and trying to get time on a downhill for the rest of the race. But I dunno, I can't help but think that he knows this is his last and best chance at a GT, and that's gotta count for something. He's got experience and determination and he looks solid. I don't think it's impossible he's still in red at the end of the TT, even if unlikely.
Majka/field 5% - Majka's a good TTer, but he hasn't really gained any time on Aru or Purito in the mountains yet, so he's gonna have to be a real good TTer to hold off Dumoulin and overcome the other 2.
- May 3, 2010
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My expectation for the GC:
1. Purito - Last year he only lost 1'44 to Tony Martin in the final time trial. I've said it before, but this might reaaly be his final chance to win a GC. Even is he narrowly loses his jersey to Dumoulin he still has options on Saturday.
2. Dumoulin - Close but no cigar.
3. Aru - Will have to watch out not to lose place 3 to Majka
4. Majka - Might still podium, but his lead on Dumoulin is too small and he's not very agressive in this Vuelta.
1. Purito - Last year he only lost 1'44 to Tony Martin in the final time trial. I've said it before, but this might reaaly be his final chance to win a GC. Even is he narrowly loses his jersey to Dumoulin he still has options on Saturday.
2. Dumoulin - Close but no cigar.
3. Aru - Will have to watch out not to lose place 3 to Majka
4. Majka - Might still podium, but his lead on Dumoulin is too small and he's not very agressive in this Vuelta.
- Jul 25, 2012
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Re:
He has very little chance of anything at all on the next two stage, everything relies on Stage 20. Say Aru attacks and TD can't follow, which I don't expect as Aru is very explosive, then it depends on who else is with Aru after the attack which will decide the Vuelta. If Aru is alone then only Dumoulin will chase. Can TD take back 15-20 seconds on a descent/flat at the top? I don't know how good Aru or Dumoulin are at descending, or how technical it is. If NQ follows then Majka will chase. If Purito follows then Aru wins, as Aru will tell Purito he can take the stage win if he works with Aru for the red jersey. I don't really think TD can beat two men like them no matter how bad they are at time trialling. If Valverde follows then no one will chase apart from obviously TD and maybe Majka, but a minute is very unlikely.King Boonen said:
- Jul 25, 2012
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Re: Re:
That final 1st cat tomorrow could give Aru everything he needs to take the win.
Brullnux said:
That final 1st cat tomorrow could give Aru everything he needs to take the win.
What happens if 10-15 GC riders come to the finish line on Saturday to sprint for the win? Say the current top 10 in GC.
Would Aru be able to beat Dumoulin in a sprint and get a top 3 (and bonifications)?
Would Aru be able to beat Dumoulin in a sprint and get a top 3 (and bonifications)?
- May 15, 2011
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Re: Re:
It's only 7kms @ 6%. In order to get something they need to set a hard pace as soon at they hit the rolling terrain and keep it for 100kms. If Aru only gets a few seconds in the descent Tom will TT back to him in the last 6 kms that are almost flat and on an straight open road.King Boonen said:
Re:
Aru has to attack in the hardest climb of the day, the second ascent to la Morcuera, and get the 3 seconds of the intermediate sprint at the end of the descent so that we get a tie.barmaher said:
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