Who Will Win the 2015 Vuelta a Espana?

[BeagRigh]

What are the rules if they are tied on time? Most stage wins/highest placing?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

What are the rules if they are tied on time? Most stage wins/highest placing?

I think they go to 1/100th of seconds taken from the time trial results.

 

[Gigs_98]

Aru. I know many people favor dumoulin but I just don't think so.

 

[DFA123]

Aru. I know many people favor dumoulin but I just don't think so.

Aru a strong favourite for me too. If Dumoulin had 30 seconds I would make it 50-50, but Aru will surely pick up three seconds somewhere; especially given the strength of the respective teams.

 

[BeagRigh]

Re: Re:

What are the rules if they are tied on time? Most stage wins/highest placing?

I think they go to 1/100th of seconds taken from the time trial results.

Thanks.

I tried to find the exact times but they are ronud the nearest second on the lavuelta website.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

What are the rules if they are tied on time? Most stage wins/highest placing?

I think they go to 1/100th of seconds taken from the time trial results.

Thanks.

I tried to find the exact times but they are ronud the nearest second on the lavuelta website.

At the finish line on the TV Dumoulin was 46:01.2 and Aru 47:54.3. So based on that Dumoulin would win if it was a tie I guess; though those numbers probably haven't been verified.

 

[BeagRigh]

Re: Re:

What are the rules if they are tied on time? Most stage wins/highest placing?

I think they go to 1/100th of seconds taken from the time trial results.

Thanks.

I tried to find the exact times but they are ronud the nearest second on the lavuelta website.

At the finish line on the TV Dumoulin was 46:01.2 and Aru 47:54.3. So based on that Dumoulin would win if it was a tie I guess; though those numbers probably haven't been verified.

Thanks again

 

[Cookster15]

Aru is obviously recovering well and benefiting from focussing on this Vuelta. He is certainly the favourite now to win in Madrid but I wonder if it is possible for Dumoulin or his team to launch a surprise attack? That would be something ! Maybe the cobbled climb to Avila on stage 19 would suit Dumoulin more than Aru?

 

[Forunculo]

Re:

Aru is obviously recovering well and benefiting from focussing on this Vuelta. He is certainly the favourite now to win in Madrid but I wonder if it is possible for Dumoulin or his team to launch a surprise attack? That would be something ! Maybe the cobbled climb to Avila on stage 19 would suit Dumoulin more than Aru?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFO162E0wVc

Vandenbroucke in 1999 Vuelta

 

[Aapjes]

A break will hover up the bonis for Stages 18/19 and the stages are not hard enough for Aru to get a gap on Dumoulin. Stage 21 is for the sprinters. So stage 20 is the only real shot that Aru has got. I'm not sure that Puerto de Cotos is hard enough to unseat Dumoulin. It is relatively long, but not too steep.

It could go either way.

 

[Escarabajo]

Aru is in trouble. At this moment Dumoulin seem to be the second best climber of the race. LOL. It will be very hard for him to lose red. It would take an external help like other riders going on the attack and him not responding for being focus only on Aru.

 

[SeriousSam]

What were the slopes today. Aru weighs like 61 kg or something. If he goes all out on steeper climbs on Saturday he will get away from Dumoulin.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

What were the slopes today. Aru weighs like 61 kg or something. If he goes all out on steeper climbs on Saturday he will get away from Dumoulin.

Cotos (last climb Saturday) is just as steep as today's climb. Aru has to go on the penultimate climb (which is a bit steeper) to have a chance to drop Tom.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Aru is in trouble. At this moment Dumoulin seem to be the second best climber of the race. LOL. It will be very hard for him to lose red. It would take an external help like other riders going on the attack and him not responding for being focus only on Aru.

Who's the best then?

 

[Escarabajo]

If Tom keeps his fitness Aru has no chance. In fact any of the other 3 or 4 riders behind have a better chance than Aru.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Aru is in trouble. At this moment Dumoulin seem to be the second best climber of the race. LOL. It will be very hard for him to lose red. It would take an external help like other riders going on the attack and him not responding for being focus only on Aru.

Who's the best then?

From what I saw today, Aru. But Tom is glued to him and slopes are not steep enough. They are power climbs. It plays into TD hands.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

On these kind of climbs Dumoulin might actually be stronger. It's 6% avg. It's nothing

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Aru is in trouble. At this moment Dumoulin seem to be the second best climber of the race. LOL. It will be very hard for him to lose red. It would take an external help like other riders going on the attack and him not responding for being focus only on Aru.

Who's the best then?

From what I saw today, Aru. But Tom is glued to him and slopes are not steep enough. They are power climbs. It plays into TD hands.

Ah, my bad. I concluded you thought Aru was not the strongest.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

I agree. The slopes today were simply not steep enough, they all marked each other out easily and TD made it look easier still.

It's hard to see at this point that Aru is going to be able to beat him on anything other than bonus seconds at the line, still it's so close....intriguing stuff!

 

[Rollthedice]

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

 

[Forunculo]

If Aru want to win he has to a "Fuente de" on saturday stage. His main advantage is the team he has behind, he should avoid the face to face and try winning from tactics

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

Agreed, all that Landa-nonsense should stop. Landa did the right thing after he got severely buttfucked in the Giro

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

But in Andorra Dumoulin was already a big threat. In that situation Aru had to put as much time as possible in everybody including Climbing Tom and as long as Landa is payed by Vino to help Aru win the Vuelta he should have done exactly that. He didn't, though I wonder if Nibali in the same situation would have waited.