Who Will Win the 2015 Vuelta a Espana?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

I don't count saturday as a high mountain stage for the sole reason the climbs are too easy, like todays last climb. It's totally incomparable to what they had last weekend and in Andorra.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

One thing to keep in mind here. It's 17km to the line after the last mountain, with a significant flat part before the descent. Aru is going to have to be off in the distance to hold TD from reeling him back in (assuming nothing happens tomorrow). Won't be easy.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

One thing to keep in mind here. It's 17km to the line after the last mountain, with a significant flat part before the descent. Aru is going to have to be off in the distance to hold TD from reeling him back in (assuming nothing happens tomorrow). Won't be easy.

I'm not sure it would work like that. If Aru has been able to drop Dumoulin on the climb then it would mean Dumoulin is totally broken, because he will try to stick to Aru's wheel whatever it takes. Not sure in that situation that he would then be able to immediately recover enough at the top to reel in Aru.

Astana's tactics are a bit questionable at times, but surely they will try to ride a really hard race straight from the Navacerrada. In Andorra and Alba stages they soft pedalled the first few climbs which undoubtedly played into Dumoulin's hands; I doubt they will do that again here.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I still severely doubt they can drop Dumoulin on that last climb, it's the same as today. They'd really have to try something creative from further out

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If I were Astana, I tried to drop Dumoulin on the 2nd to last climb, win the boni sprint with Aru after that climb, so they are equal in GC. Then everything is up for grabs

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

[quote="

I'm not sure it would work like that. If Aru has been able to drop Dumoulin on the climb then it would mean Dumoulin is totally broken, because he will try to stick to Aru's wheel whatever it takes. Not sure in that situation that he would then be able to immediately recover enough at the top to reel in Aru.

Astana's tactics are a bit questionable at times, but surely they will try to ride a really hard race straight from the Navacerrada. In Andorra and Alba stages they soft pedalled the first few climbs which undoubtedly played into Dumoulin's hands; I doubt they will do that again here.[/quote]

For sure, if TD is totally broken then it probably won't work like that. But going by what you saw today, do you think that's likely? He looked super strong to me.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

If I were Astana, I tried to drop Dumoulin on the 2nd to last climb, win the boni sprint with Aru after that climb, so they are equal in GC. Then everything is up for grabs

That seems like a valid plan, given what we saw today.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

[quote="

I'm not sure it would work like that. If Aru has been able to drop Dumoulin on the climb then it would mean Dumoulin is totally broken, because he will try to stick to Aru's wheel whatever it takes. Not sure in that situation that he would then be able to immediately recover enough at the top to reel in Aru.

Astana's tactics are a bit questionable at times, but surely they will try to ride a really hard race straight from the Navacerrada. In Andorra and Alba stages they soft pedalled the first few climbs which undoubtedly played into Dumoulin's hands; I doubt they will do that again here.

For sure, if TD is totally broken then it probably won't work like that. But going by what you saw today, do you think that's likely? He looked super strong to me.[/quote]
Based on today he looked very good. I think it's a different stage though compared with saturday; that one will have about 3,800m of climbing, if it's ridden hard from the start it would trouble even the best climbers. It'll definitely be great to see; especially if it all kicks off early. If Astana pin all their hopes on the last climb though, Dumoulin is a fairly strong favourite for me.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Astana's tactics are a bit questionable at times, but surely they will try to ride a really hard race straight from the Navacerrada. In Andorra and Alba stages they soft pedalled the first few climbs which undoubtedly played into Dumoulin's hands; I doubt they will do that again here.

True, but looking at the riders faces yesterday all the climbers including Landa were completely spent so I'm not sure they'd beeen able to distance TD at all if they had spent even more energy on the earlier climbs. Anyhow I get the feeling Dumoulin is stronger now than in Andorra. Yesterday I gave him little chance but today I think he might just pull it off.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Astana's tactics are a bit questionable at times, but surely they will try to ride a really hard race straight from the Navacerrada. In Andorra and Alba stages they soft pedalled the first few climbs which undoubtedly played into Dumoulin's hands; I doubt they will do that again here.

True, but looking at the riders faces yesterday all the climbers including Landa were completely spent so I'm not sure they'd beeen able to distance TD at all if they had spent even more energy on the earlier climbs. Anyhow I get the feeling Dumoulin is stronger now than in Andorra. Yesterday I gave him little chance but today I think he might just pull it off.

Based on what we saw today. I would say he's the favorite.

 

[Red Rick]

I remember once jokingly voting Dumoulin in this thread. Now he looks like he actually could do it.

Tomorrow should suit him more than Aru. Get through that without making mistakes, and there's only one tough stage and a parade remaining

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

If I were Astana, I tried to drop Dumoulin on the 2nd to last climb, win the boni sprint with Aru after that climb, so they are equal in GC. Then everything is up for grabs

Do we actually now in who's favour the hundredths of seconds are?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If I were Astana, I tried to drop Dumoulin on the 2nd to last climb, win the boni sprint with Aru after that climb, so they are equal in GC. Then everything is up for grabs

Do we actually now in who's favour the hundredths of seconds are?

According to the time shown at the finishing line of the time trial, Dumoulin was 1/10th of a second faster than Aru, so would be ahead on a tie. Haven't seen any verified timing since then though.

 

[victorschipolrijk]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

I think there is a reason that won't happen, and is cause Aru is obviously riding on fumes, whereas Dumoulin got something left in the tank.

Today it was crystal clear that Aru couldn't shake him off. It was also clear that the rest of wannabes couldn't make inroads either.

It is just my opinion, but today it was a good opportunity to cause him some problem and Dumoulin showed everyone that it will take a lot more to break him, and god knows Aru tried his hardest, he'll go to sleep depressed, that I guarantee it.

Besides that, these upcoming mountain passes do not have either the length or the gradient to cause a stronger Dumoulin the necessary trouble.
IMO

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

I think there is a reason that won't happen, and is cause Aru is obviously riding on fumes, whereas Dumoulin got something left in the tank.

Today it was crystal clear that Aru couldn't shake him off. It was also clear that the rest of wannabes couldn't make inroads either.

It is just my opinion, but today it was a good opportunity to cause him some problem and Dumoulin showed everyone that it will take a lot more to break him, and god knows Aru tried his hardest, he'll go to sleep depressed, that I guarantee it.

Besides that, these upcoming mountain passes do not have either the length or the gradient to cause a stronger Dumoulin the necessary trouble.
IMO

I agree that individually they are nothing special, but the cumulative effect could cause him problems. He has lost time on every stage with a serious amount of climbing so far, even though the first mountains weren't ridden particularly hard. Stage 20 has a serious amount of climbing (3,800m).

Aru's form changes like the wind so it's difficult to second guess, but I think if he takes it relatively easily tomorrow, he and his team will ride really hard from the start on saturday. Will be great to watch whatever happens, but I think Dumoulin could struggle with the sheer amount of climbing - even if the gradients are nothing special.

 

[eric_vv]

Re: Re:

On Saturday evening when Tom will go to sleep in his red jersey with a smile on his face, while Aru will weep silently in a corner, Martinelli approaches a slightly embarrassed Landa and ask him "Why did you have to win that stage, Mikel?"

All this nonsense about the Andorra stage.
If Aru lost it anywhere, it's probably in the first few days when nobody gave a f.ck about Dumoulin.
\
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28098
36 seconds + boni
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101
Another 4 seconds (this one means Aru would've been in red if he was more attentive!)
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28102
Here another 6 seconds
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28105
And here another 16

3 of them he could have prevented or at least lost way worse. The last stage is ofcourse debatable since Dumoulin was outright the strongest there.

If Aru loses the race, it will be because he couldn't gain a handful of seconds on a proper high mountain stage on saturday. He knows what he needs from the stage and as a stronger climber, with a stronger team he is in a great position. I'm sure he would have bitten your hand off before the race to be in this position now.

He's put time into Dumoulin on all the high mountain stages, when Dumoulin wasn't even seen as a threat. Now it's a head to head battle, there's no reason why he won't do the same on saturday.

I think there is a reason that won't happen, and is cause Aru is obviously riding on fumes, whereas Dumoulin got something left in the tank.

Today it was crystal clear that Aru couldn't shake him off. It was also clear that the rest of wannabes couldn't make inroads either.

It is just my opinion, but today it was a good opportunity to cause him some problem and Dumoulin showed everyone that it will take a lot more to break him, and god knows Aru tried his hardest, he'll go to sleep depressed, that I guarantee it.

Besides that, these upcoming mountain passes do not have either the length or the gradient to cause a stronger Dumoulin the necessary trouble.
IMO

I agree that individually they are nothing special, but the cumulative effect could cause him problems. He has lost time on every stage with a serious amount of climbing so far, even though the first mountains weren't ridden particularly hard. Stage 20 has a serious amount of climbing (3,800m).

Aru's form changes like the wind so it's difficult to second guess, but I think if he takes it relatively easily tomorrow, he and his team will ride really hard from the start on saturday. Will be great to watch whatever happens, but I think Dumoulin could struggle with the sheer amount of climbing - even if the gradients are nothing special.

Yes, but why did he loose time, because of the amount of climbing, or because of the gradient?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Yes, but why did he loose time, because of the amount of climbing, or because of the gradient?

Well, judging by how he handled himself on Caminito del Rey and Mirador del Cumbre, I'd say it was predominantly tiredness from the amount of climbing. He seems strong on steep gradients when fresh; it was the multiple mountains earlier in the day that wore him down - and they weren't even ridden at much of a tempo in Andorra and Asturias.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

While Stage 20 has lots of climbing it does not compare to Andorra or Alba and don't forget tomorrow's finish which I think Dumoulin could actually steel some more seconds the way he is riding. I can't see Aru making any dents unless Dumoulin has a hunger flat or similar but he shows no signs of fatigue - unlike Aru and Astana who must surely be at the end of their rope. I just hope no crashes so decided fair and square.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

While Stage 20 has lots of climbing it does not compare to Andorra or Alba and don't forget tomorrow's finish which I think Dumoulin could actually steel some more seconds the way he is riding. I can't see Aru making any dents unless Dumoulin has a hunger flat or similar but he shows no signs of fatigue - unlike Aru and Astana who must surely be at the end of their rope. I just hope no crashes so decided fair and square.

I think stage 20 is being underestimated a bit. It's got a similar amount of climbing at similar gradients to the Allos/Pra Loup stage of the TdF/Dauphine this year. It's not a queen stage by any means, but certainly enough to separate the climbers by a few seconds if it is raced hard.

 

[Scarponi]

Hypothetically if this year ended with the 9km TT like last year would Tom be able to get av15 second deficit back?

 

[IndianCyclist]

The last climb summit comes 20k before the finish. Easy for Dumoulin to catch Aru in TT mode with 30 s gap

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Hypothetically if this year ended with the 9km TT like last year would Tom be able to get av15 second deficit back?

Yes, easily

 

[DFA123]

Hypothetically if this year ended with the 9km TT like last year would Tom be able to get av15 second deficit back?

If it was last year's course, with last year's weather it would be very close I think. IIRC it was a technical circuit with several accelerations, especially because of the wet cobbles etc... that would give a slight advantage to the lighter rider.

 

[cineteq]

Lack of GT experience, pressure, tireness had to catch up with him sooner or later

Funny how people are talking about Demoulin as if he's been in the situation before. HE WILL BE DROPPED...

 

[jens_attacks]

He won this bike race. Grande angel! _O_