Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? First rest day poll.

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primoz also. Yeah, he's a real longshot as it currently stands.

Rogla is a hotshot with a longbow.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Rogla is a hotshot with a longbow.

Live look at Bora and Roglic firing at UAE and Visma:

View: https://youtu.be/-OivL7KuaME?si=0xBpvq1MDpKl2KTo

 

[CyclistAbi]

@SHAD0W93

I feel that only one shot for both will be needed this time. We'll see.

 

[CyclistAbi]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmRf41SVHS4

 

[SHAD0W93]

@SHAD0W93

I feel that only one shot for both will be needed this time. We'll see.

Man did win the battle of Helms Deep.

 

[bob.a.feet]

I think Pogacar should be happy to have a lead of 1:15 over Vingegaard, especially given the TT. Vingegaard will need to be close to his top level - or hope Pogacar fades - to win this. However, if Vingegaard does reach top shape, 1:15 can disappear in the blink of an eye once we reach the Pyrenees.

As for Remco, he looks to be in fantastic form, and yet it's still difficult to see him dropping Pogacar in the mountains. The absolute best case scenario I can realistically see is him limiting his losses to 20 seconds between now and the final time trial. Even then, the deficit would be too much to recover.

For either Vingegaard or Remco to beat Pogacar, they would need to gain time before Nice. For Vingegaard it's a toss-up, for Remco it's a Herculean task.

 

[Potomac]

Pogacar.
He will gain time in every mountain stage over all the GC guys.
Remco will lose huge time on one of them.
Pogacar will go into the final TT with an insurmountable lead and he will get off his bike midway through to give hugs.

 

[Le Grand Doop]

I think Pogacar should be happy to have a lead of 1:15 over Vingegaard, especially given the TT. Vingegaard will need to be close to his top level - or hope Pogacar fades - to win this. However, if Vingegaard does reach top shape, 1:15 can disappear in the blink of an eye once we reach the Pyrenees.

As for Remco, he looks to be in fantastic form, and yet it's still difficult to see him dropping Pogacar in the mountains. The absolute best case scenario I can realistically see is him limiting his losses to 20 seconds between now and the final time trial. Even then, the deficit would be too much to recover.

For either Vingegaard or Remco to beat Pogacar, they would need to gain time before Nice. For Vingegaard it's a toss-up, for Remco it's a Herculean task.

hmm. I disagree with some of this. if vingo enters the last TT still 1:15 down he could make it up (and more) if his form is ascending and Pog is tired from the two GTs. After all, Vingo beat him by more in a shorter but similar climb-y ITT last year.

I really don't think Remco is in this battle at all (and I am a fan). I hope very much that he does not try to match the mountain attacks and does not have a collapse. He has never competed over the types of mountain stages that are approaching. and he simply does not have the body type (no matter the -2.5 KGs). Since ITT kms and long wearing flat stages have disappeared, and eating disorders have become a necessity, the GT contender/skeleton looks more like Derrick Gee than Remco.

 

[memyselfandI]

However, if Vingegaard does reach top shape, 1:15 can disappear in the blink of an eye once we reach the Pyrenees.

Maybe he's reasonable this time and does not 7 minutes in two days, let's assume he does half of it.... Well no and we don't know just yet, it's crazy and exciting at the same time of course.

I vote for Vingegaard, because he's the underdog atm in this trio. Would be nice to see him clean this hard task he's in now. Remcos win, I think is quite possible as there's small chance that Pogi may destroy himself in trying to destroy Vingo. If Remco does not get too excited in those moments, he might grab it big time because his form and fitness is superb right now.

 

[Cookster15]

Geraint Thomas is picking Vingegaard. But strange he didn't mention anything about Vingegaard's injuries and loss of effective training. So not sure talking about what happened in 2023 is valid now?

Geraint Thomas: Vingegaard bigger favourite than Pogačar to win 2024 Tour de France

Welshman on new terrain at 38 as he tackles first full Giro d’Italia-Tour de France double of career

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[Medvind]

So G's case is that:

- Vinge is progressing
- Pog will probably not get better, even a risk he might get worse (because of Giro?)
- Mountain stages from the weekend and on has a lot of long climbs that suits Vinge better and where Pog's punch won't be deciding factor.

A critic might say it's not certain that Vinge will keep progressing given his lack of preparation and that Pog seem to handle longer climbs better this year (proof Giro?) and that Vinge might not have the team to really tire Pog out.

 

[Potomac]

I know Thomas is in the race, but he hasn't been with the leaders to observe them under duress.

 

[Forever The Best]

Vingegaard is getting better. He was very strong on gravel. And when he is on form he is the best climber (Hautacam 2022, Loze 2023) and a better TTist (2022 final TT, 2023 Combloux) than Pogacar and has better recovery (2023 Loze). So my vote goes to him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So Pogi has closest team members positioned at 5, 6 and 11 place GC, Remco has one at 8, Jonas has one at 10, Rogla has one at 17. Huge reserves left for Pogi, on when it comes to supporting him, once the terrain starts going up.

 

[KZD]

I keep my vote in Pogačar.

Compared to last year now he has the advantage over Vingegaard, 1:15min which is not a small gap. However its true that if the dane returns to his best that gap can be closed and turned around but I have a hard time believing that Vingegaard will get back into his best after spending 2 weeks in the hospital.

Regarding Remco and Roglič, I can only see one of the two winning if Vingegaard fades in the mountain stages because of a shortened preparation and if Pogačar starts getting worse because of the Giro. In this scenario UAE also has the option of doing a long range attack with Almeida or Ayuso but I have a very hard time seeing one of these two or a Rodriguez winning.

 

[Cassirer]

I think pog takes it this year. Vinge has a path to victory, but I dont think the conditions will be met:
If he hits peak form, he wont lose time in the mountains and recreates the magical tt. I dont think pogs form matters too much in this scenario, but I also dont think he will hit peak form. Even after the simply incredible level he has shown till now, I still think that would be absurd.
If he's not his absolute best but reasonably close, he could still win via a pog meltdown, but I dont think that will happen on its own and visma lacks the team to make the race hard enough for even giro-pog to crack. Maybe some all or nothing stuff from remco or roglic could pressure pog, but I think he will manage.

Great race so far, hope we are in for an amazing second act!

 

[Lorzenz08]

Tbh I'm not really worried of a Vingo getting in top shape.
I think a top shape Pogi isn't losing more than a few secs on Vingo in the hardest parts.

 

[dennisdy]

Before the race started I thought that Pogacar, if he didn't waste energy in the early stages, would win. Yesterday he wasted lots of energy. If this trend continues, Vingegaard will have chances, especially in the high mountain finishes (stages 15, 19, 20).

 

[Tonton]

Great posts here, but as some alluded to, the real question is Jonas' form, if he's bluffing or not. "Whole lotta mind games goin' on" as Jerry Lee Lewis would put it.

A 95% Vingegaard will not beat Pogacar. Kryptonite light is like mayo light, you don't get the yellow...

I have learned during my many lives a few things, including: You shall never bet against Jordan. You shall never bet against Mahomes. You shall never bet against Pogacar.

That's only three commandments, I have yet to find the other tablets...

 

[peterfin]

The fact that we can still have this poll is important. We started the race with a clear top favorite against competition that saw their run up to the tour weakened by injuries. It could have been over by now. What this tells me is that the Pogacar in yellow is not better than Pogacar in pink. His peak condition may be behind him while Vingegaard is better than expected. If Vingegaard gets just a bit better, it may be sufficient to edge out Pogacar. Without a bad day and a potential peak condition in the third week, Remco remains a risk for both. They cannot just watch each other. Roglic is a question mark but not yet out. What a great race it is.

 

[scribers]

when the race started I said here “vingo slam dunking pogi take it to the bank”. But after seeing pogis form I switched my vote to Pogi.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Voted Vingegaard. Before the race, I thought he either miss the podium and be clearly off or he’d win. Perhaps an arbitrary, forced binary view of it, but I’m sticking by it. He’s only been a step below Pogacar once, on the Galibier, and the ITT was in line with prior performances. I think he’ll light it up in the mountains and Pogi will capitulate somewhere, then Vinge will smash the fibal ITT. Picking Roglic in second and Pogi in third. I think Roglic will be clearly off the rest for a lot of the stages but he steady and not collapse. I’m predicting a Remco collapse.

What I want to see is Roglic beating Remco.

 

[sam6]

I can only see 2 possible winners

I want Pogi to win but I am worried about Vingegaard. I have a bad feeling the Vingegaard will win somehow. I was expecting Pogi to gain time on the gravel and he didn't, I know he got dropped for a bit but then got back and I think the gap is not that huge. If it wasn't for descending, he'd have only gained 8 seconds on Tuesday. I worry Vingo will get better and somehow do a Froome or something. Hopefully Pogi will be able to stick to his wheel at least but there are 3 tough stages to finish and it just depends how Vingo's form is

 

[scribers]

Today was fan practice for the void after the tour is over

 

[solo80k]

Jonas easily, Pog has no miracles left in his pocket. I think the next pool after second rest day will show the reality... 😁