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Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

Page 9 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Who will win the 2024 Tour de France?


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  • Poll closed .
I've never seen Pog rated higher than right now. It's like a fever has taken over everyone since the Giro & he's ascended to godly dimensions. Every piece of information from the rider, his entourage & his team leads people (aka press, influencers & followers) to one conclusion only: he's better than he's ever been before.

I think it's all... too good to be true. This sport has a way of dragging people back down to earth. The French call it "se voir trop beau".

We'll see but IMO Pog won't win this thing with a 5 minute advantage. There will be a fight. This is the Tour, aka that one race where I'm sure everyone is ready & I'm also sure everyone has caught-up a little bit more since 2023.

Sure, all the contenders are there and they are obviously much better than Giro competition. I've never said Pog would win with 5+ minutes advantage, mind you. But there are signs that he could have advantage particularly in the first part of the Tour (due to prolonging/even finetuning his red hot form the Giro) vs rivals who can be still a bit off their best (due to various reasons). And weather forecasts for Galibier stage are getting shittier with each update. Pog has to capitalize on every chance there is. Last race weekend is another story though, I have zero confidence about his form then.
 
I think it'll be closer in GC for the first two weeks than last year. The route & lack of summit finish until stage 14 lends to this. So I think that'll automatically make the race more suspenseful because quite a few teams will be in the fight.
It was 10s or so in GC until the ITT on stage 16. It can't get any closer than that or you mean top 5, 10?
 
It was 10s or so in GC until the ITT on stage 16. It can't get any closer than that or you mean top 5, 10?

Yep. I mean the top 10, certainly the top 5.

I don't see where on the road with a fully fit & fresh peloton you could have riders like Vinge & Pog doing what they did on Marie Blanque & the Tourmalet last year. Or even Puy-de-Dôme where they gapped everyone with ease.

If someone put a gun to my head & said "predict the first two weeks or die!" I'd have to say I suspect the narrative just before stage 14 is going to be about how cr*p the route is with its backended difficulties in week 3, i.e. because GC will be a lot tighter than people imagined before the TdF.

For example when the route was announced, did anyone think stage 4 would cause huge gaps? I'm not sure. But now with have Marc Madiot running around saying the Tour will be over after 4 stages. That scenario seems a bit too surreal, even when taking into account Pog's qualities.
 
And weather forecasts for Galibier stage are getting shittier with each update. Pog has to capitalize on every chance there is. Last race weekend is another story though, I have zero confidence about his form then.

True.

The weather will play a key role, especially if we go from scorching hot to 'cold' & then vice versa. It adds 'unknowns' in terms of how these riders react to the changeable conditions from one stage to another.
 
For example when the route was announced, did anyone think stage 4 would cause huge gaps? I'm not sure. But now with have Marc Madiot running around saying the Tour will be over after 4 stages. That scenario seems a bit too surreal, even when taking into account Pog's qualities.

Almost no one thinks it will create huge gaps, I think. But significant ones (at the top at least), definitely yes. 40 seconds to about 1 minute between the first and second tier would be my guess. Some GC guys could end up losing 2 minutes plus.
 
Yep. I mean the top 10, certainly the top 5.

I don't see where on the road with a fully fit & fresh peloton you could have riders like Vinge & Pog doing what they did on Marie Blanque & the Tourmalet last year. Or even Puy-de-Dôme where they gapped everyone with ease.

If someone put a gun to my head & said "predict the first two weeks or die!" I'd have to say I suspect the narrative just before stage 14 is going to be about how cr*p the route is with its backended difficulties in week 3, i.e. because GC will be a lot tighter than people imagined before the TdF.

For example when the route was announced, did anyone think stage 4 would cause huge gaps? I'm not sure. But now with have Marc Madiot running around saying the Tour will be over after 4 stages. That scenario seems a bit too surreal, even when taking into account Pog's qualities.

Media, part of peloton and also lot of fans (me included) are currently on a hype train. It looked so easy for UAE lately but you are right that TDF is different kind of beast and we should not take latest domination for granted. We will see how it unveils.

Only thing I am certain is that UAE will do everything in their power to provide some buffer for heavy loaded 3rd week.

Anyway 2 days to go and I can hardly wait what stories will be written in 2024 TDF.
 
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I've never seen Pog rated higher than right now. It's like a fever has taken over everyone since the Giro & he's ascended to godly dimensions. Every piece of information from the rider, his entourage & his team leads people (aka press, influencers & followers) to one conclusion only: he's better than he's ever been before.

I think it's all... too good to be true. This sport has a way of dragging people back down to earth. The French call it "se voir trop beau".

We'll see but IMO Pog won't win this thing with a 5 minute advantage. There will be a fight. This is the Tour, aka that one race where I'm sure everyone is ready & I'm also sure everyone has caught-up a little bit more since 2023.
I think part of the reason why Pog is rated so high at the moment is because he is one leaner (Matxin has said in the order of 2 kg, if I remember correctly) and thus has inreased his power to weight ratio, which means technically this is the best Pog we have seen yet. Secondly, the ease with which he has been so dominant in every race he has practically entered this year, except MSR (which in any case is probably the hardest race for him to win), is alarming. Granted at the Tour everybody will be at their absolute peak level, although probably including himself, which, considering how he has won repeatedly and so dominantly this year, could be a scary prospect for his rivals even at the top of their game for the Tour. Finally, to make matters worse for the competition and their teams, several riders have experienced serious injuries or late illness and thus were not able to prepare optimally or else won't even be at the Tour. All of these factors I think understandably explains the hype regarding Pogacar at the moment. I really do hope, however, those previously injured arrive at their peak for the second and third week of the race, otherwise it will likely be déjà-vu of the Giro.
 
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I really do hope, however, those previously injured arrive at their peak for the second and third week of the race, otherwise it will likely be déjà-vu of the Giro.

I'm hoping for a scenario like the 2003 Tour. Everyone was handing the win to one rider before the race started & yet it was much tighter & way more dramatic than anyone had anticipated.

The main analogy in my mind is just like back in 2003, other teams have now had a few years to study what makes Pog & Vinge so good & 'catch up' a little - in the same way everyone caught up with SkyIneos eventually. This won't be visible until the Tour gets underway.

That's what I wish for in any case, i.e. Pog, Rog, Evenepoel & others all still in the mix for GC after two weeks.
 
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I'm hoping for a scenario like the 2003 Tour. Everyone was handing the win to one rider before the race started & yet it was much tighter & way more dramatic than anyone had anticipated.

The main analogy in my mind is just like back in 2003, other teams have now had a few years to study what makes Pog & Vinge so good & 'catch up' a little - in the same way everyone caught up with SkyIneos eventually. This won't be visible until the Tour gets underway.

That's what I wish for in any case, i.e. Pog, Rog, Evenepoel & others all still in the mix for GC after two weeks.
Skyineos was a lot of times about the numbers, having a train which nullified all the attacks. Now, it's not about that....it's all way pure power, being better phisically, nobody can hide his weaknesses.

It's very simple to beat Pogacar or Vingegaard. A certain rider should be better phisically than them to beat. They will not get caught in ambushes, tatics or trains like skyineos had. It's easy to diagnose the situation, but very difficult o fight back unless some rider show he is better in terms of pure power.
 
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I'm hoping for a scenario like the 2003 Tour. Everyone was handing the win to one rider before the race started & yet it was much tighter & way more dramatic than anyone had anticipated.

The main analogy in my mind is just like back in 2003, other teams have now had a few years to study what makes Pog & Vinge so good & 'catch up' a little - in the same way everyone caught up with SkyIneos eventually. This won't be visible until the Tour gets underway.

That's what I wish for in any case, i.e. Pog, Rog, Evenepoel & others all still in the mix for GC after two weeks.
Well in 2003 you had a monstrous Jan on Team Bianchi for chrissake, who, if he has played his cards right could have won. In a time warp, imagine Ullrich on Visma today?
 
Skyineos was a lot of times about the numbers, having a train which nullified all the attacks. Now, it's not about that....it's all way pure power, being better phisically, nobody can hide his weaknesses.

It's very simple to beat Pogacar or Vingegaard. A certain rider should be better phisically than them to beat. They will not get caught in ambushes, tatics or trains like skyineos had. It's easy to diagnose the situation, but very easy to fight back unless some riders show he is better in terms of pure power.

One of the totally underrated parts of Jumbo & UAE's success is the domestiques. They've always demolished the bunch, namely Jumbo's, but UAE aren't strangers to getting a huge performance increase in the Tour either, i.e. I remember Brandon McNulty in the 2022 Tour showing climbing legs in the Pyrenees which veered into super-domestique territory.

There's a preparation which those teams get right & everyone else has had time to study it, i.e. preparation which makes riders like McNulty or Laporte become monsters in July.

So it's not just about the leaders, it's about the whole team.

Well in 2003 you had a monstrous Jan on Team Bianchi for chrissake, who, if he has played his cards right could have won. In a time warp, imagine Ullrich on Visma today?

That's an interesting thought experiment actually, i.e. which team would suit which rider better? I think Ullrich would benefit immensely from Visma's strictness & discipline... even if he might not like it.
 
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I've never seen Pog rated higher than right now. It's like a fever has taken over everyone since the Giro & he's ascended to godly dimensions. Every piece of information from the rider, his entourage & his team leads people (aka press, influencers & followers) to one conclusion only: he's better than he's ever been before.
What is happening is very simple, Emirates is giving a lesson of comunication to everybody, they have been doing a great work on that area, creating a big hype and propaganda around Pogacar inside and outside the bike. We are now in a moment where everything is beautiful and funny about Pogacar.

Screenshot-20240627-124009-Instagram.jpg

Screenshot-20240627-124005-Instagram.jpg


This is like a real fever, where outside the bike even stupid pics where i personally can't find the "joke" are awesome, and hey he's also a gentleman, a very nice guy who gives bottles to the kids and forgives a old man for pushing him. When the camera is on him, he makes everything to smile the hard as he can, and be the silly as he can, and then, the area of communication of Emirates, extrapolates the most as they can those situations especially in social media, to show to the world that they have a champion, who is also a great guy, with a so nice heart! [[content deleted]] The new people champion!

We now even have in the forums, guys hyping the most as they can with 8.3 w/kg in 12 min, 7 w/kg in 20 minutes, that he will destroying everybody, that he is invincible, creating an invincible aura, around a guy who was absolutely beaten in the last two Tours, and all because he has been beating Rubio, Tiberi in the Giro, and Skuijnes and Van gils in Strade Bianche. When he faced competition in Milan San remo, he lost.

But like i said, they are doing a tremendous job inside and outside the bike around the image of Pogacar. Great job by Emirates, but i don't buy that ****.

That's why i prefer a rider low profile, because at least i don't have to see this BS around him, and i don't need to see him on Insta putting silly pics.
 
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What is happening is very simple, Emirates is giving a lesson of comunication to everybody, they have been doing a great work on that area, creating a big hype and propaganda around Pogacar inside and outside the bike. We are now in a moment where everything is beautiful and funny about Pogacar.

Screenshot-20240627-124009-Instagram.jpg

Screenshot-20240627-124005-Instagram.jpg


This is like a real fever, where outside the bike even stupid pics where i personally can't find the "joke" are awesome, and hey he's also a gentleman, a very nice guy who gives bottles to the kids and forgives a old man for pushing him. When the camera is on him, he makes everything to smile the hard as he can, and be the silly as he can, and then, the area of communication of Emirates, extrapolates the most as they can those situations especially in social media, to show to the world that they have a champion, who is also a great guy, with a so nice heart! [[content deleted]]]. The new people champion!

We now even have in the forums, guys hyping the most as they can with 8.3 w/kg in 12 min, 7 w/kg in 20 minutes, that he will destroying everybody, that he is invincible, creating an invincible aura, around a guy who was absolutely beaten in the last two Tours, and all because he has been beating Rubio, Tiberi in the Giro, and Skuijnes and Van gils in Strade Bianche. When he faced competition in Milan San remo, he lost.

But like i said, they are doing a tremendous job inside and outside the bike around the image of Pogacar. Great job by Emirates, but i don't buy that ****.

That's why i prefer a rider low profile, because at least i don't have to see this BS around him, and i don't need to see him on Insta putting silly pics.
Well, honestly, UAE has every right to capitalize on the PR situation, to the same extent Visma, Bora and Soudal can play down their riders or at least not inflate with useless boasting. It's mind games pure and simple. The road, as always, has the final word.
 
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What is happening is very simple, Emirates is giving a lesson of comunication to everybody, they have been doing a great work on that area, creating a big hype and propaganda around Pogacar inside and outside the bike. We are now in a moment where everything is beautiful and funny about Pogacar.

Screenshot-20240627-124009-Instagram.jpg

Screenshot-20240627-124005-Instagram.jpg


This is like a real fever, where outside the bike even stupid pics where i personally can't find the "joke" are awesome, and hey he's also a gentleman, a very nice guy who gives bottles to the kids and forgives a old man for pushing him. When the camera is on him, he makes everything to smile the hard as he can, and be the silly as he can, and then, the area of communication of Emirates, extrapolates the most as they can those situations especially in social media, to show to the world that they have a champion, who is also a great guy, with a so nice heart! [[content deleted]]] The new people champion!

We now even have in the forums, guys hyping the most as they can with 8.3 w/kg in 12 min, 7 w/kg in 20 minutes, that he will destroying everybody, that he is invincible, creating an invincible aura, around a guy who was absolutely beaten in the last two Tours, and all because he has been beating Rubio, Tiberi in the Giro, and Skuijnes and Van gils in Strade Bianche. When he faced competition in Milan San remo, he lost.

But like i said, they are doing a tremendous job inside and outside the bike around the image of Pogacar. Great job by Emirates, but i don't buy that ****.

That's why i prefer a rider low profile, because at least i don't have to see this BS around him, and i don't need to see him on Insta putting silly pics.
This boils down to you don't like him, or the hype. Which is, of course, legitimate. The whole theory about how the hype is there because a PR person trained him how to smile and because he happened to beat Tiberi at Giro is, well, silly.
 
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He won liege and giro without competition what are you saying? Thomas was second to Roglic last Giro only lost on last stage and this year by 10min and only guy missing in Liege who could do aynthing close to him was properly Remco noone else. What are you saying man, he lost a year he was hurt yes dont forget to mention that. Someone dont like Pogacar here hehe. I guess every rider interviewed are wrong and your right, he only won cause bad competition. What riders could we put next to him to challenge him in in these races you mentioned cause I dont see anyone besides maby Evenpoel close in Liege.
Pogacar will suffer discredit from a small minority of haters for the next couple of years if he wins any stage race which Vingegaard does not compete in.

Vingegaard is the only man in the world capable of competing with or beating Tadej in a stage race. These two are streets ahead of the rest.

If for example Pogacar does the Giro next year, he will most likely win it with ease unless Jonas shows up. Then it's a race!
In ways, Tadej is a victim of his own immense talent. He is so good that he wins Grand Tours like the Giro at a canter. He can blow away the entire peloton on his own bar Jonas in the mountains. So whenever Jonas is not around, Pogi just won't get the love from his detractors.

It's almost like if he wants to get true recognition for his achievements, he must follow Vingegaard around to the races he competes in. Copy Jonas's racing calendar. He must beat Jonas for any of his wins to be legit.
Winning the Giro by the greatest winning margin in recent history and pulverising the field into submission after 10 days just isn't enough.
 
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Pogacar will suffer discredit from a small minority of haterd for the next couple of years if he wins any stage race which Vingegaard does not compete in.

Vingegaard is the only man in the world capable of competing with or beating Tadej in a stage race. These two are streets ahead of the rest.

If for example Pogacar does the Giro next year, he will most likely win it with ease unless Jonas shows up. Then it's a race!
In ways, Tadej is a victim of his own immense talent. He can blow away the entire peloton on his own bar Jonas in the mountains.
And in the TTs or so it would seem from 2023. At any rate, I'm looking forward to what Tadej will do in this Tour, for if he wins it like the Giro (but I doubt so otherwise it would be like Fignon in 84) then the others, except Jonas, who has an excuse, can redimension thier ambitions whilst he is around.
 
Well, honestly, UAE has every right to capitolize on the PR situation, to the same extent Visma, Bora and Soudal can play down their riders or at least not conflate with useless boasting. It's mind games pure and simple. The road, as always, has the final word.

It's strange but for some reason I get the feeling Quick Step & Red Bull Bora are actually... quite confident?

Maybe it's just me but after everything that happened to Evenepoel & his lack of form in the Dauphiné, saying he's aiming for a top 5 in GC & a stage win seems pretty ambitious & IMO shows he must feel good. Or at least he expects to be good. It sort of mirrors what he said before the Vuelta 2 years ago.

Rog & his team meanwhile might be giving the usual sport speak answers about "doing their best, one day at a time, we'll see" etc. but they have actually reiterated they're in it for yellow & want to win.

So they must feel they've done something right as well.

@Rackham McNulty was one man army then, probably cooking even Pog himself. Only Vingo felt comfortable with the pace.

Which makes UAE look even more scary this year. Yates , Almeida, Ayuso....

Those doms & their insane July performances is the aspect of Jumbo & UAE's dominance I'm most interested in. I mean forget Pog & Vinge, i.e. if we assume they're generational talents & untouchable on the road, so be it, but I am interested in 'how' Brandon McNulty suddenly turned into prime Roberto Heras in the Pyrenees back in the 2022 Tour.

If Quick-Step & Red Bull have figured out the answer to that question, we could be in for some unexpected fun. Let's hope so in any case.
 
It's strange but for some reason I get the feeling Quick Step & Red Bull Bora are actually... quite confident?

Maybe it's just me but after everything that happened to Evenepoel & his lack of form in the Dauphiné, saying he's aiming for a top 5 in GC & a stage win seems pretty ambitious & IMO shows he must feel good. Or at least he expects to be good. It sort of mirrors what he said before the Vuelta 2 years ago.

Rog & his team meanwhile might be giving the usual sport speak answers about "doing their best, one day at a time, we'll see" etc. but they have actually reiterated they're in it for yellow & want to win.

So they must feel they've done something right as well.



Those doms & their insane July performances is the aspect of Jumbo & UAE's dominance I'm most interested in. I mean forget Pog & Vinge, i.e. if we assume they're generational talents & untouchable on the road, so be it, but I am interested in 'how' Brandon McNulty suddenly turned into prime Roberto Heras in the Pyrenees back in the 2022 Tour.

If Quick-Step & Red Bull have figured out the answer to that question, we could be in for some unexpected fun. Let's hope so in any case.
Yea, but Remco hasn't ridden the Tour before, so what else can they say. But if they got it actually right this time? I can think of Lemond in 84 and 85 as a possible comparison, but with obviously limited parallels. As for Roglic, it's now or never man, so I'll be wishing him well.
 
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Wow ... the bookies have the race now as a 50-50 chance between Vingo and Pogi. Remco moved up to 10 to 1, Roglic dropped to 25 to 1.
Roglic had before to start better than 25 to 1?
:oops:He is like Contador after 2011, a good GC rider to win lot of races, but not with the best at his best. 25 to 1 is correct before to start becose the rest can crash or things like that. He is the best of humans but now he is againts ET riders.
Good thing he said he didnt have the legs, no excuses. He is a reliable rider for podium, wich had a big merit if he get.
 
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Roglic had before to start better than 25 to 1?
:oops:He is like Contador after 2011, a good GC rider to win lot of races, but not with the best at his best. 25 to 1 is correct before to start becose the rest can crash or things like that. He is the best of humans but now he is againts ET riders.
Good thing he said he didnt have the legs, no excuses. He is a reliable rider for podium, wich had a big merit if he get.
Roglic was about 11 or 12 to 1 before the race started. Basically Roglic and Remco have swapped odds.
 
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