First of the pre-race Tour de France polls. It's that time of the season.
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Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.
- Thread starter Netserk
- Start date
Pogacar
Recently I became more optimistic regarding the double. Maybe it's because Rogla and Evenepoel still need to improve a lot. Maybe because I don't believe Vingo will be present/strong enough this year. Pogacar might fade in the last week...or not. He may as well navigate through it safely with an already comfortable lead (accumulated by stage 15) and nobody strong enough to push him to the limits.
Recently I became more optimistic regarding the double. Maybe it's because Rogla and Evenepoel still need to improve a lot. Maybe because I don't believe Vingo will be present/strong enough this year. Pogacar might fade in the last week...or not. He may as well navigate through it safely with an already comfortable lead (accumulated by stage 15) and nobody strong enough to push him to the limits.
Hard to see past Pog in here... As for JV - since the crash I still 99% sure he won't start the TdF and I'm still 97% sure about that... and I'm 100% sure he can't be nowhere near his 90% shape if he does.
Also if Pog gives 100% throughout the Tour he'll win with 10+ minutes lead over the Rogla and company.
Also if Pog gives 100% throughout the Tour he'll win with 10+ minutes lead over the Rogla and company.
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There's no way I get my prediction right. Will you let me jinx your favourite rider?
* * * * * - Pogi
* * * * - Vingegaard, Rogla
* * * - Evenepoel, Rodriguez, A. Yates
* * - Hindley, Bernal, Gall, Ayuso, Almeida, S. Yates
* - Mas, Carapaz, Bilbao, Pidcock, Gaudu, Landa, Jorgenson, Gee, Hart, Vlasov, Kuss
* * * * - Vingegaard, Rogla
* * * - Evenepoel, Rodriguez, A. Yates
* * - Hindley, Bernal, Gall, Ayuso, Almeida, S. Yates
* - Mas, Carapaz, Bilbao, Pidcock, Gaudu, Landa, Jorgenson, Gee, Hart, Vlasov, Kuss
You are saying this but deep in your soul, you don't want this to happen and beg to all gods for Roglic to win it
Imagine something more optimistic for a change i.e. PDBF reversed in Nice. You will feel better!
Same here. Love for either Remco or Roglič to take Yellow in Nice. But chances are less than 5% against Pogačar with a fault free preparation.
Pogacar has to be the favorite but as someone who wants him to win I'm f*cking scared of Vingegaard. And I wouldn't completely rule out some other riders either. Every time someone tries it people underestimate the difficulty of the double. If Pogacar cannot just ride everyone off his wheel Roglic in particular will smell blood..
I mostly agree with this. I’d go:
***** - Pogi
**** - Vingegaard, Roglic
*** - A Yates, Almeida, Evenepoel
** - Rodriguez, Bernal, Ayuso, S Yates, Jorgenson, Vlasov
* Mas, Carapaz, Gall, Kuss, Gee, Landa, Pidcock, Hart, Bilbao, Gaudu, Hindley
You should include Macron in the poll because he’ll be trying to finish 1st during Le Tour.
How many serious attempts have there been from riders on top of the world at the height of their power? A single one. Then, you look at under which circumstances that double went wrong.
If anything I believe the difficulty of the double is overrated and the circumstances to achieve it for a top rider were right there multiple times in the last 25 years.
And only then do we start to account for Pogacar's superiority over the field being much larger than anything this century if we account for the extremely high likelihood Vingegaard won't appear in a great shape.
If Pogacar races and he doesn't get sick or crash out or whatever, he's a gigantic favorite to win.
Slovenia - Denmark draw, so a clear advantage for Remco
I see no one has mentioned the weather yet. So I'll mention 'la météo'. In July it can be the difference between a good Tour de France for some riders or an absolute nightmare, depending on preference. I had a look at provisional forecasts i.e. according to BBC weather, in 2 weeks time is going to be pretty hot in Florence. In fact over 30°C.
FYI I voted in the poll here with my heart, but, there's also a material point regarding the weather based on all the intel amassed so far: Rog & Vinge love hot conditions whereas Pog doesn't like it.
So I'll put it this way: a rainy cold July almost certainly guarantees a Pog demolition job. Whereas the opposite... allows for some different scenarios. I also think stage 19 looks horrendous. The altitude on the cime de la Bonette (2800 meters) is no joke. It's almost a third of the height of Mount Everest, for perspective sake. I mean if they climbed any higher they'd be handing the riders supplemental oxygen cannisters at the summit.
Just kidding of course but looking at the route this year, I think there's going to be a lot of riders in contention for the podium (or at least top 5) until stage 19 resets everything & shows who's really got what it takes this year.
FYI I voted in the poll here with my heart, but, there's also a material point regarding the weather based on all the intel amassed so far: Rog & Vinge love hot conditions whereas Pog doesn't like it.
So I'll put it this way: a rainy cold July almost certainly guarantees a Pog demolition job. Whereas the opposite... allows for some different scenarios. I also think stage 19 looks horrendous. The altitude on the cime de la Bonette (2800 meters) is no joke. It's almost a third of the height of Mount Everest, for perspective sake. I mean if they climbed any higher they'd be handing the riders supplemental oxygen cannisters at the summit.
Just kidding of course but looking at the route this year, I think there's going to be a lot of riders in contention for the podium (or at least top 5) until stage 19 resets everything & shows who's really got what it takes this year.
Fully agree. I very much want Pogačar to win, but I think a fit Vingegaard is the better TdF rider and Roglič may be the smarter.
ETA: Also, the weather!
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I don't understand this poll. Pogacar is by far, just like in the Giro, the main favorite. He would be 5 star and the next one would be 3 star. Maybe Roglic or Yates, his own teammate. So I would propose saving this poll and taking Pogacar out and putting who will be the best second.
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Rogla would be with Yates with 3 stars and then everyone else below. 1 or 2 stars it doesn't make a difference.
Yeah, it will be hot in Florence, however the first weekend is not going to be decisive by any means. Let's see if we have 30°C in the last week.
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