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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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Krzysztof_O said:
Speaking about Pogacar vs Evenepoel on flats it is really race dependent. When analysed in isolation Remco is obviously aero superior but i.e. in Lombardy Pog murdered everyone on flat because of his superior w/kg engine (and less accumulated fatigue). Liege favours w/kg as well (but maybe to a smaller extent) plus Pog might be in worse form this time so we will see. I am curious myself.
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Evenepoel wasn't even close to his best. He had to rush in order to get ready for the Tour, had a long very intensive period until the Olympics were done. Then after the Olympics he had far too little time in between in order to get ready for the final part of the season, with the WCC and Lombardia.
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Evenepoel wasn't even close to his best. He had to rush in order to get ready for the Tour, had a long very intensive period until the Olympics were done. Then after the Olympics he had far too little time in between in order to get ready for the final part of the season, with the WCC and Lombardia.
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He wasn't at his best form and probably neither is now. Still, he beat comfortably the rest and without Pogacar we would be talking about his impressive solo win (so his form was still quite decent). As for Pogacar, I'm not expecting him to be as good as then though. Those time gaps were insane.
 
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Lequack

Lequack

Jul 10, 2014
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I wonder what Remco and Urska Zigart talk about when training together at Quickstep. Just Pog, or anything but Pog?

81fb4789-5ddb-4be1-8ff5-de563f708f5c.jpg


https://twitter.com/x/status/1916144607122895335
View: https://x.com/soudalquickstep/status/1916144607122895335

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl82WKvMYm4&feature=youtu.be
 
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topcat

topcat

Jul 4, 2016
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Krzysztof_O said:
Speaking about Pogacar vs Evenepoel on flats it is really race dependent. When analysed in isolation Remco is obviously aero superior but i.e. in Lombardy Pog murdered everyone on flat because of his superior w/kg engine (and less accumulated fatigue). Liege favours w/kg as well (but maybe to a smaller extent) plus Pog might be in worse form this time so we will see. I am curious myself.
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They talk about what it's like to live in the shadow of the Hog.
 
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D

Danskebjerge

Jul 4, 2009
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Gratemans said:
I don't know. To me, FW is all about the Mur. Sure, it often is predictable, but it's not a real classic anyway, and I kind of like its role as the world championship of puncheurs.
Amstel is different for me. It's way longer, it is a classic, and there's generally a lot more action going on earlier in the race. So I'm in favor of not having it end at the Cauberg.
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That's how I saw it too, until around ten years ago. Then Valverde won the race four years in a row, and that's one of the problems: With so few other key elements in the race, the chance (risk) of the pre-race favourite winning comfortably is overwhelming. This year's edition was of course the worst one in that regard.

I think they could easily try it out and push the finish line, say, 1 kilometer. The Mur would still be decisive, but maybe 5 percent less so.
 
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2WpK

2WpK

Jul 18, 2024
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I think the idea that Pogacar is a bit tired from all the racing he is doing is a bit overrated. He did show some weakness at Amstel but I believe that is because he was still under-recovered from PR. Watch from him to be as strong as ever tomorrow.
 
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C

Cycling111

Apr 13, 2025
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2WpK said:
I think the idea that Pogacar is a bit tired from all the racing he is doing is a bit overrated. He did show some weakness at Amstel but I believe that is because he was still under-recovered from PR. Watch from him to be as strong as ever tomorrow.
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I think he'll be tired, or if you want to say it another way, he won't be in the shape he was in Flanders.
Another thing is that he won't be feeling the PR fatigue he felt in Amstel.

Everyone says Remco isn't in shape because he's done so few races.
But arriving from altitude can't be worse than arriving after many days of competition, especially Flanders and Roubaix.

Roglic went to the Volta Catalunya from altitude, Ayuso from Tirreno, and we already saw the result on the last day.
 
C

Cycling111

Apr 13, 2025
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Krzysztof_O said:
He wasn't at his best form and probably neither is now. Still, he beat comfortably the rest and without Pogacar we would be talking about his impressive solo win (so his form was still quite decent). As for Pogacar, I'm not expecting him to be as good as then though. Those time gaps were insane.
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Although in Lombardy Pogacar's form doesn't matter as much. It's his home turf.

In 2023, Pogacar arrived to Lombardy worse than ever.
Roglic arrived better than ever.
Pogacar looked fatigued in the previous classics, bu in Lombardy, Pogacar was once again invincible.
He didn't even need to drop them behind on the steepest part of the climb. He managed to do so on the false flat at the top.

To beat Pogacar in Lombardy, the feeling is that he has to arrive worse than ever, and the others better than ever. That's how he and Roglic arrived, and even then they didn't defeat him in Lombardy.
 
S

Sciatic

Mar 4, 2011
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2WpK said:
I think the idea that Pogacar is a bit tired from all the racing he is doing is a bit overrated. He did show some weakness at Amstel but I believe that is because he was still under-recovered from PR. Watch from him to be as strong as ever tomorrow.
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The "bit tired" thing is overplayed, but so is every detail with him and an opponent prior to a race like this. It is a legitimate question to raise (and to then dismiss if that's your view) because the fact is he has never ridden such a demanding spring classics schedule, seemingly in top form from Strade until now. Regardless of the talent of an individual, if it's something they haven't done before then it's reasonable to at least raise the question of how that might effect his performance. I kinda doubt it will have a big impact, but put zero value on my opinion.
 
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Cookster15

Cookster15

May 14, 2011
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I definitely think he was tired from PR at Amstel but he recovers quickly so I doubt he will be tired tomorrow. FW shows he has fully recovered from PR. Amstel was too early.

In 2024 look at what Pogacar still won after winning the Giro-Tour double: Montreal (very hilly 209km race), the worlds, Emilia and GdL.
 
O

Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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Krzysztof_O said:
He wasn't at his best form and probably neither is now. Still, he beat comfortably the rest and without Pogacar we would be talking about his impressive solo win (so his form was still quite decent). As for Pogacar, I'm not expecting him to be as good as then though. Those time gaps were insane.
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We should also take an absence of Pogacar from any race a reality that dramatically changes the event dynamics.
Remco's team worked their collective as*ses off last week and he wasn't even a close second to Tadej. Nor the next two guys. Progress goes on and other teams have their threats to interject into the mix.
 
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Filippo_3467

May 2, 2019
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When I look at the squad for UAE I can't see Pogacar waiting until RaF to try to drop everyone from a larg-ish group of the best in the race. maybe he would be able to do so decisively but UAE don't bring a classic Pogi launchpad to the race. Wellens, Christen, Narvaez, even del Toro (but he probably would have too much issues with positioning in this race) are explosive enough in a minute effort to really but the hurt on. Mc Nulty isn't the type to do that even though he has excellent form and could be in the Top 10 tomorrow.

The bring a squad that is really tailor-made for controlling the race in the first 150 ks. No big breakaway or 2-3 little moves with progressively better riders getting away in the early breakaway phase. Lock down anticipation moves and keep a godd position through Wanne and Stockeu. I think Pogi will attack latest on redoute but I think a first move even earlier is likely. Of course could be that Remco attacks first. I think if Pogi waits too long there is a small risk - but a risk - that the numbers aren't there for UAE in a moment when you don't want to burn energy closing third tier favourites like Ciccone, Bardet or Blackmore yourself.

The team was really strong in Amstel and Fleche but I would have expected Christen in this squad to help drop the la Redoute bomb. McNulty then for wheelsucking and creating group 2 syndome in the chase.
 
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Medvind

Jun 27, 2024
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Pidcock could follow Pog's first attack in SB and in 2023 he was the last one who dropped form Remco's wheel.

So will he be the 3rd strongest rider tomorrow? Will he be the last of the mortals to drop? 2nd in 2023. Last he yearcame 10th after he had to chase because he got stuck behind a crash.

Too bad Skjelmose still suffers from the crash in FW. In an interview he said he gained a couple kilos, hope he can shed some of it, otherwise he will not be relevant tomorrow. Can Nys deliver instead for Lidl-Trek? LBL might just be a bit too tough for Nys right now.

I count on Healy being strong., but with a weak sprint podium might be tough, but Bardet broke free last year and cam 2nd so why can't Healy do the same.

Can Bardet do a strong LBL again?

Curious to see if Gregorie can do a good race tomorrow, 7nd in both AGR and FW.
 
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