Who will win the Giro d'Italia 2019

[Rollthedice]

Re:

The oldest winner since Fiorenzo Magni. Number 41.

Damn, I made a mistake. It will be oldest winner of Giro ever.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Obviously the decision tree is go is

Check if Vincenzo Nibali in bike sace
Vincenzo Nibali in bike race >> "Vincenzo Nibali will win this bike race"
If Vincenzo Nibali not in bike race >> Check if Antonio Nibali in bike race

You get the drift

After Antonio, do you check for their father?

I mostly just get nostalgic for the days when I would check for Alberto Contador on the start list first.

Then I look for a lame joke to win this bike race

I'll never get tired of being wrong.

 

[Lequack]

Racing News Show: Is Roglic The Favourite For The Giro d’Italia? (09:16 English) — gcn
https://youtu.be/Vu3rCIA9t1o

 

[Poursuivant]

I think Yates has learned his lesson from last year, especially with how backloaded this Giro is. Can Roglic hold his form for two weeks? I think TD will come on strong too, can’t wait, fingers crossed for no crashes or injuries.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I haven't voted. It would just be a total guess. Perhaps bias (Contador) made these predictions easier in the past. Imagine if Bernal was still in it?!

Roglic - The form rider of the season, the rider with the greatest career upward trajectory in last 18 months, can do it all, there is only the 3 week question.
Dumoulin - Best time trialler and is proven over 3 weeks many times. A very good climber, but good enough against a really great climber on form?
Yates - A super climber when on form and a much improved time trialler, does winning the Vuelta erase the question mark from the Giro?
Nibali - Multiple grand tour winner, very strong at the end of those GT's, and this is backended, age is against him, but he always has voodoo.
Lopez - Poor ITT, but a very good climber and proven over 3 weeks. Poor in short hilly finishers, but there are not too many of those, good form this season, age is on his side.
Landa - At his best, perhaps the best climber in the race, and he has shown that form at the end of a GT. Can he return to that level? He is still quite young, LBL was encouraging.

 

[dastott]

Re:

I haven't voted. It would just be a total guess. Perhaps bias (Contador) made these predictions easier in the past. Imagine if Bernal was still in it?!

Roglic - The form rider of the season, the rider with the greatest career upward trajectory in last 18 months, can do it all, there is only the 3 week question.
Dumoulin - Best time trialler and is proven over 3 weeks many times. A very good climber, but good enough against a really great climber on form?
Yates - A super climber when on form and a much improved time trialler, does winning the Vuelta erase the question mark from the Giro?
Nibali - Multiple grand tour winner, very strong at the end of those GT's, and this is backended, age is against him, but he always has voodoo.
Lopez - Poor ITT, but a very good climber and proven over 3 weeks. Poor in short hilly finishers, but there are not too many of those, good form this season, age is on his side.
Landa - At his best, perhaps the best climber in the race, and he has shown that form at the end of a GT. Can he return to that level? He is still quite young, LBL was encouraging.

Pretty good summary. Difficult to imagine Landa dropping Yates though, and he has a worse TT than Yates. Very stylish rider though, would love to see him make the podium.

 

[RunningRouleur]

The 2018 Vuelta was 300 kilometers (eight hours) shorter and had only one stage over 200 kilometers. This Giro will be harder, and it's heavily backloaded. I'm not sure Yates can withstand it.

I picked Roglic because the TTs suit him perfectly and he has been the strongest rider this season.

 

[movingtarget]

Landa is overdue for a good performance in a grand tour. Would be good to see. Nibali top five. Zakarin is always unpredictable, top five at best.

 

[Blanco]

The 2018 Vuelta was 300 kilometers (eight hours) shorter and had only one stage over 200 kilometers. This Giro will be harder, and it's heavily backloaded. I'm not sure Yates can withstand it.

I picked Roglic because the TTs suit him perfectly and he has been the strongest rider this season.

You're not sure Yates can withstand it, a man who won a GT, but you think Roglic will win, a man who faded in the last year's Tour and lost a podium in final TT, his strongest discipline?

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic bottled the ITT cause he had an injury affecting him in that ITT.

Similarly I'm pretty sure that Yates blowing up last year doesn't have to mean that much either.

 

[Lequack]

I am surprised so few picked MAL for the win.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re:

Roglic bottled the ITT cause he had an injury affecting him in that ITT.

Similarly I'm pretty sure that Yates blowing up last year doesn't have to mean that much either.

Well, comfortably winning the last GT to happen also gives a bit of confidence he can cope.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

I am surprised so few picked MAL for the win.

Cowardly pussies win very little.

 

[dastott]

Re:

I am surprised so few picked MAL for the win.

Because he is a terrible TTer?

 

[Valv.Piti]

I have no clue why I voted MAL. He disappointed last year in the Giro despite getting a podium, but we finally saw him on the stage to La Gallina. He has had a great season so far as well. If thats the López we will see, he will create havoc, but still - most likely - wont win. Even if he breaks them on climbs like Mortirolo and San Carlo, I wont favour him to hold on alone on descents and false flat. Descending will just be super important in this Giro overall I feel esepecially on stage 14, 15, 16 and 20.

 

[Escarabajo]

If MAL attacks from further away he will have support in front of him, otherwise he is doomed. Almost every rider that attempts an attack from far away does the same. Andy Schleck was terrible descender and he had a cast to help him a bit on that attack in 2011 Tour.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

It is dead even between Roglic and Dumoulin.

Remember last years Giro when Dumoulin was second best to Yates for two weeks?

Ah you mean when Yates had to turn himself inside out to get a 2 minute advantage before the ITT. Then completely killed himself to stay within 1'30 of Dumoulin in the ITT and then was empty.

He clearly can't afford to go that hard at it for 3 weeks. But the offset is he will lose more time if he does that. I can't see him getting enough time for 3 TT's this way.

 

[Red Rick]

Everyone was breaking down left right and centre last year. Doesn't mean it has to happen again.

 

[Mayomaniac]

MAL is a decent pick for a podium, but a bad one for the overall win. If he puts it all together Landa has a better chance of actually winning the whole thing, Lopez has a better chance of finishing top 3.

 

[RunningRouleur]

The 2018 Vuelta was 300 kilometers (eight hours) shorter and had only one stage over 200 kilometers. This Giro will be harder, and it's heavily backloaded. I'm not sure Yates can withstand it.

I picked Roglic because the TTs suit him perfectly and he has been the strongest rider this season.

You're not sure Yates can withstand it, a man who won a GT, but you think Roglic will win, a man who faded in the last year's Tour and lost a podium in final TT, his strongest discipline?

Roglic lost a minute, Yates lost an hour. And as has been previously mentioned, Roglic's fade was partially due to an injury. Do you remember his performance on stage 19 of that Tour? Roglic was getting stronger throughout the Grand Boucle.

And Yates was shaky by the end of the Vuelta. When the better climbers/GT specialists took off on stage 20 he faded just slightly.

What Yates has in his favor is likely the strongest team, though it remains to be seen how good Jumbo's young guys are. Finally, I will say that it appears Yates' TT has improved further this year, and with the hilly TTs in this Giro, he won't lose as much time to Dumoulin.

Still, however, I think Roglic is strongest on all terrain.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

I haven't voted. It would just be a total guess. Perhaps bias (Contador) made these predictions easier in the past. Imagine if Bernal was still in it?!

Roglic - The form rider of the season, the rider with the greatest career upward trajectory in last 18 months, can do it all, there is only the 3 week question.
Dumoulin - Best time trialler and is proven over 3 weeks many times. A very good climber, but good enough against a really great climber on form?
Yates - A super climber when on form and a much improved time trialler, does winning the Vuelta erase the question mark from the Giro?
Nibali - Multiple grand tour winner, very strong at the end of those GT's, and this is backended, age is against him, but he always has voodoo.
Lopez - Poor ITT, but a very good climber and proven over 3 weeks. Poor in short hilly finishers, but there are not too many of those, good form this season, age is on his side.
Landa - At his best, perhaps the best climber in the race, and he has shown that form at the end of a GT. Can he return to that level? He is still quite young, LBL was encouraging.

Pretty good summary. Difficult to imagine Landa dropping Yates though, and he has a worse TT than Yates. Very stylish rider though, would love to see him make the podium.

I think that a strong Landa might drop Yates on Mortirolo, and could hope to gain further time on stages 19 & 20. Presuming he is in at least 2015 Giro form.

Having said that, I would still pick Yates as a better chance to win the race. Something like this:

Dumoulin 24%
Roglic 22%
Yates 20%
Nibali 12%
Landa 10%
Lopez 8%
Zakarin 1%
Other 3%

 

[HelloDolly]

Its a wonderful conundrum this Giro as so many top riders are so close in overall ability

But we forget the weather and mishap as a deciding factor as it is in nearly every GT

On current form you would say its Roglic v Yates (the best climber in the race imo) but are we sure Yates is at the same level as last year ?
Of course Landa if he is in 2015 form(big if) can also podium or even win it if Yates is not top

But contrary to the above you cannot rule out Dumoulin because he is so tough, mentally tough and best TTer
And even tougher is Nibali ...he wont be at the top of GC after stage 9 but he is relentless and could be there by stage 21..plus he is the best descender which must be a factor

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Its a wonderful conundrum this Giro as so many top riders are so close in overall ability

But we forget the weather and mishap as a deciding factor as it is in nearly every GT

On current form you would say its Roglic v Yates (the best climber in the race imo) but are we sure Yates is at the same level as last year ?
Of course Landa if he is in 2015 form(big if) can also podium or even win it if Yates is not top

But contrary to the above you cannot rule out Dumoulin because he is so tough, mentally tough and best TTer
And even tougher is Nibali ...he wont be at the top of GC after stage 9 but he is relentless and could be there by stage 21..plus he is the best descender which must be a factor

I think Roglic is the best descender of the top candidates.

 

[Robert5091]

I think Nibali might have used the voodoo to call on the weather gods. Stage 2 could be interesting.

 

[The Chicken]

MAL will win this bicycle race.

Nibali will be nowhere; he is finished as a GT rider.