Who will win the green jersey in the Tour de France?

[Kazistuta]

I picked Greipel for four reasons:

1) Don't think Cav will finish TDF
2) Haven't seen the interview where Sagan said he'd go for green
3) Kittel is not going to drag his corpus fast enough over the hills to compete in enough stages
4) Forgot that "other" could be Goss

So actually want to say Matthew Goss for the green jersey. Greipel, Goss and Kittel are the only ones matching Cav in pure drag race speed.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I'm guessing Cav, if he concentrates on it, and finishes, or Sagan. Cav gets a nod to experience, but that's about it right now. Goss is another good pick.

 

[robert_c]

"I will not be as successful in the Tour de France as I have been in the past."- Cav.

So my vote goes to Sagan.

 

[Gubby Allen]

No brainer, if he stays on his bike Sagan will have it wrapped up by the second week.

Greipel second & Goss third.

 

[saganftw]

I picked Greipel for four reasons:

1) Don't think Cav will finish TDF
2) Haven't seen the interview where Sagan said he'd go for green
3) Kittel is not going to drag his corpus fast enough over the hills to compete in enough stages
4) Forgot that "other" could be Goss

So actually want to say Matthew Goss for the green jersey. Greipel, Goss and Kittel are the only ones matching Cav in pure drag race speed.

sagan will go for green,i havent seen interview where he said he wouldnt ,he bet liquigas boss to win 2 stages + green jersey

also greipel said in interview sagan is the only one who can win the green jersey and that he (greipel) will not go for green from the start but after 7-10 stages he will look at standing and go from there

 

[RedZone]

Are you seriously comparing Renshaw to the guy who came 2nd in worlds?

Along with the fact that Goss might have the best lead-out train at this tour. Ive got money on Gossy for Green at 10-1,and I think thats a decent bet.

 

[orangerider]

Sagan for sure - Nibali just doesn't have the energy and drive this year. Rojas, possible contender and should give us a good fight but he's not nearly as fast as Sagan. Cavendish is using the race for training and, at most, to obligate his paycheck committment by going deep and winning 2-3 pancake flat stages as soon as possible, then dropping back and riding at his own pace. As for Goss, he hasn't shown any ability to finish consistently in a long grand tour.

No one else really has what it takes to win green. As mentioned, Kittel wont make it over the bumps where it really counts for sprint point accumulation.

 

[phanatic]

Sagan for sure - Nibali just doesn't have the energy and drive this year.

 

[Ragerod]

Gone with the Gorilla. I have a sneaky feeling he'll position himself well enough to pick up a few stage wins and that Sagan will have a bit of trouble in the big sprints becoming a victim of the points system.

 

[cineteq]

Sagan for sure - Nibali just doesn't have the energy and drive this year.

Let's suppose Nibali doesn't have the energy and drive this year or not, what does it have to do with the green jersey?

 

[cineteq]

Gone with the Gorilla. I have a sneaky feeling he'll position himself well enough to pick up a few stage wins and that Sagan will have a bit of trouble in the big sprints becoming a victim of the points system.

I guess you didn't read this:
Greipel tips Sagan for Tour de France green jersey

 

[royalpig180]

Let's suppose Nibali doesn't have the energy and drive this year or not, what does it have to do with the green jersey?

Rather obvious. Sagan needs the support of his team to win the "Sagan-esque" stages, those with climbs near to the finish or with an uphill finish. Many of these stages are stages that would normally suit breakaways and we won't see Greenedge or Sky chasing for their sprinters on these stages. If Liquigas is committed to working for the green jersey for Sagan, he can win these stages and their points. If their still focusing their efforts on Nibali, he'll probably be left to fend for himself more often...

 

[cineteq]

Rather obvious. Sagan needs the support of his team to win the "Sagan-esque" stages, those with climbs near to the finish or with an uphill finish. Many of these stages are stages that would normally suit breakaways and we won't see Greenedge or Sky chasing for their sprinters on these stages. If Liquigas is committed to working for the green jersey for Sagan, he can win these stages and their points. If their still focusing their efforts on Nibali, he'll probably be left to fend for himself more often...

Nice try.
- Sagan does not need a train, he can win every which way, you name it.
- Nibali is on track to win his first Tour

 

[Ragerod]

I guess you didn't read this:
Greipel tips Sagan for Tour de France green jersey

I read it but I don't believe it. He's just spouting the same bull**** Cavendish does every year about winning a stage and I don't have to agree with him on who I think will win. Sagan's the clear favourite but I just have a feeling he'll struggle when all the top sprinters are in the same place.

The only real issue is waiting to see what happens. With big points at the intermediate sprints anyone who thinks they have a shot has to contest it.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

"I will not be as successful in the Tour de France as I have been in the past."- Cav.

And with that, I'm switching my vote to Sagan.

 

[42x16ss]

I still think that at 21 Sagan is still too young to maintain the form required for 3 weeks but I can see him having a serious shot at it. I also suspect that he has peaked too early. Sagan has plenty of time to win several Green Jerseys and will probably threaten Zabel's tally in the future though.

So, my money is on Cavendish if he rides all 3 weeks, otherwise it will be a showdown between Goss (more versatile, better positioning and leadout) and Griepel (faster). Goss is my pick over Griepel and Sagan.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Cav or Sagan, but I picked Sagan. I'm not sure Cav is interested in chasing the green jersey this time round.

 

[greenedge]

I think it will come down to Sagan or Goss. I voted for other ( Goss ).

 

[royalpig180]

Nice try.
- Sagan does not need a train, he can win every which way, you name it.
- Nibali is on track to win his first Tour

1. I'm not saying that Sagan can't do fine on his own in a sprint, because you're right. He can win a sprint without any sort of real leadout. He's a master of positioning. I'm simply pointing out that he won't be allowed to get in the breakaway and no team other than his will really be interested in chasing the break down, assuming a non-GC threatening break gets away since they know Sagan will just win if it's a stage too tough for the pure sprinters.
2. That's an argument for another thread, but i'd tend to disagree, based on parcours alone...

 

[Lance Armstrong]

2) Haven't seen the interview where Sagan said he'd go for green

He said in Slovak media he wants 2 stages and green jersey. Also, he has bet with Liquigas manager about that.

 

[Wilba60]

1. I'm not saying that Sagan can't do fine on his own in a sprint, because you're right. He can win a sprint without any sort of real leadout. He's a master of positioning. I'm simply pointing out that he won't be allowed to get in the breakaway and no team other than his will really be interested in chasing the break down, assuming a non-GC threatening break gets away since they know Sagan will just win if it's a stage too tough for the pure sprinters.
2. That's an argument for another thread, but i'd tend to disagree, based on parcours alone...

I am sure plenty of teams will want to chase down breaks, even with Sagan in the peleton. I can't imagine that world tour teams will go into a race like this scared of anyone. Greenedge are purposely going to go after anything that isn't too mountainous and Goss is certainly not a "flat" sprinter. If it gets too hilly for him then Impey, Albasini or Gerrans will be out for a win. I am sure there are another half a dozen teams who will be taking on Sagan as well.

 

[tomorrow]

I picked Greipel for four reasons:

1) Don't think Cav will finish TDF
2) Haven't seen the interview where Sagan said he'd go for green
3) Kittel is not going to drag his corpus fast enough over the hills to compete in enough stages
4) Forgot that "other" could be Goss

So actually want to say Matthew Goss for the green jersey. Greipel, Goss and Kittel are the only ones matching Cav in pure drag race speed.

Here you go with the interview with sagan. Is translated via google, so there are weird translations, but it's good enough
http://translate.google.com/transla...e-france-dve-etapy-a-zeleny-dres.html&act=url

 

[Froome19]

I still think that at 21 Sagan is still too young to maintain the form required for 3 weeks but I can see him having a serious shot at it. I also suspect that he has peaked too early. Sagan has plenty of time to win several Green Jerseys and will probably threaten Zabel's tally in the future though.

So, my money is on Cavendish if he rides all 3 weeks, otherwise it will be a showdown between Goss (more versatile, better positioning and leadout) and Griepel (faster). Goss is my pick over Griepel and Sagan.

He has maintained the form required for the whole season nevermind two weeks.
Was terrific in early races, then TA, then cobbles, AMG, ATOC, Suisse

I think you are confusing sprinters and climbers like Frank Schleck who can only hold peak form for a couple of weeks. Sprinters may be similar but going on his climbing in Suisse I do not think he has peaked but you do not need to be in peak form to deliver a sprint which is close to the fastest you can do, effectively you cant corralate his climbing and his sprinting.

 

[norwegian]

Other/not vino.....

 

[mad black]

Marcel Kittel

I just read the announcement about the German team for the Olympics. Kittel asked to be excluded from the team citing his focus on finishing the Tour. Smart man I say because he might be the only sprinter left in the comp. Realistically Greipel and Cav aren't going to finish because they wanna do well at the Olympics. Sagan doesn't have a team devoted to winning green. It's his first Tour and he won't be allowed to do whatever he feels like. It'll be a tight one between Goss and Kittel.