Who will win the Olympic ITT?

[JibberJim]

Is there a profile for the ITT?

It's essentially flat, with a few very small rolling bits - http://app.strava.com/segments/652480
(this is not actually the course, the strava segment goes around the one way system whereas the course goes through the middle of the pedestrian area) The part through the town there is reasonably technical through the corners , although they've removed nearly all the cobbled parts, but there's still some tight bends there, the rest is essentially simple.

The women's is similar, actually taking all the same hilly bits, but less flat
http://app.strava.com/segments/1788450

 

[T_S_A_R]

is it not an impossibly difficult task for wiggins to peak 10 days after finishing the tour?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

is it not an impossibly difficult task for wiggins to peak 10 days after finishing the tour?

How many times have we seen someone who rode the Giro do a decent Dauphine?

 

[nightfend]

is it not an impossibly difficult task for wiggins to peak 10 days after finishing the tour?

Remember, according to Wiggins, he trains as a swimmer and never really peaks, but is always at 95%.

 

[T-Nielsen]

Cancellara. When he is 100% only a 100% Martins stands a chance.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cancellara. When he is 100% only a 100% Martins stands a chance.

Cancellara has not been 100% for a long time.

 

[la.margna]

Cancellara has not been 100% for a long time.

He was 120% on April 1... What a pity...

 

[sucotash]

On topic: Wiggins should take it easily before Cancellara. Guys like Navardauskas, Phinney or Kwiatkowski could get on the podium imo, as it's not clear whether Martin has recovered well.

Kwiatkowski in not riding the TT. Bodnar will ride for Poland. He earned his place ,beating Kwiatkowski head to head in almost every TT this season they have ridden together. The last elimination in the national championships was won by Maciej, also both Giro TT.

Kwiatkowski will be our leader in the road race.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Depends how Brad's body reacts this week. He can't simply go on forever at the level he's at. If he's anything like then he'll win, otherwise Fab. Froomey bronze.

 

[Poursuivant]

Wiggins is in the form of his life. All the same cyclists going for TT Worlds too?

 

[la.margna]

Tony Martin:
Too many turns
Question marks about his recovery and form

Fabian Cancellara:
Not enough turns, not technically enough
Question marks about his recovery and form on longer distances
Might go already full gas at road race - regeneration?
Will give everything to defend his title
Has advantage to start as last (correct?)

Bradley Wiggins:
Clearly favourite #1
Home advantage
Course perfectly suits him

Calculation & Summary:
Most likely, the English guy with the sideburns will take the win.
Gains 0.4s/km on Cance due to spheric chainring: -17.6s
Gains 0.3s/km on better form: -13.2s
Cance gains 0.5s in every turn tighter than 90°: +5s
Net: Bradley to win by a margin of 26-30s

1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Fabian Cancellara
3. tough fight between Tony Martin, Chris Froome, Sylvain Chavanel and Richie Porte

Although, as a Swiss and in view that August 1 is our National Day, I hope Cance can still make it, but it's almost impossible, I guess... Can't wait!

 

[T-Nielsen]

Cancellara has not been 100% for a long time.

He seemed 100% at the prolog. The in-tour TT's has never been his thing, so I would not put to much into that. He will be fresh motivated and his shape well timed.

 

[theyoungest]

On topic: Wiggins should take it easily before Cancellara. Guys like Navardauskas, Phinney or Kwiatkowski could get on the podium imo, as it's not clear whether Martin has recovered well.

Navardauskas? Kwiatkowski? Tony Martin can beat them even with one leg. Maybe Rogers or Chavanel, if you want to name a long shot.

 

[Bala Verde]

There is one shown here
http://www.cyclingpowermodels.com/OlympicTimeTrial.aspx

It's essentially flat, with a few very small rolling bits - http://app.strava.com/segments/652480
(this is not actually the course, the strava segment goes around the one way system whereas the course goes through the middle of the pedestrian area) The part through the town there is reasonably technical through the corners , although they've removed nearly all the cobbled parts, but there's still some tight bends there, the rest is essentially simple.

The women's is similar, actually taking all the same hilly bits, but less flat
http://app.strava.com/segments/1788450

cheers guys

 

[Caruut]

Although, as a Swiss and in view that August 1 is our National Day, I hope Cance can still make it, but it's almost impossible, I guess... Can't wait!

You put cows on top of your embassies.

 

[andrew_s]

3. tough fight between Tony Martin, Chris Froome, Sylvain Chavanel and Richie Porte

Richie Porte isn't riding.
Australia selected Rogers and Evans

 

[Alpechraxler]

Cancellara, he showed good form in the Tour de France, i think he was able to train properly at home and rest as well and is fully motivated with his new child.

I even expect wiggins to loose big time, because there is no way he's fresh. There's a big difference in winning 1 week long stage races in a row with some pause in between than racing the ITT Olympics after the 3 weeks TDF which wore him out for sure.

 

[T-Nielsen]

Richie Porte isn't riding.
Australia selected Rogers and Evans

So his chances are still as good as Evans then.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Cancellara to win I think. Wiggins will get silver and Chavanel to finish 3rd.

 

[its like that]

It will be a great achievement if any rider gets within 30 sec. I just saw the betting for this and Wiggins is paying $2.00 to win!!!!

Time to remortgage my house

 

[its like that]

Cancellara, he showed good form in the Tour de France, i think he was able to train properly at home and rest as well and is fully motivated with his new child.

I even expect wiggins to loose big time, because there is no way he's fresh. There's a big difference in winning 1 week long stage races in a row with some pause in between than racing the ITT Olympics after the 3 weeks TDF which wore him out for sure.

Nice theory until I saw Wiggins obliterate the final TDF time trial

 

[avanti]

Cancellara, he showed good form in the Tour de France, i think he was able to train properly at home and rest as well ..............

He will also be acclimated to high altitude which will give him an advantage.

 

[The Barb]

Does anyone have any recent news on how Tony Martin's recovery/preparation is going? I can't find anything but presume there is something on German websites.

I don't think Wiggins is as much of a certainty as many believe. It's gotta be quite an emotional and physcial comedown riding the time trial after winning the TDF and assiting Cav to win the Road Race (which is much closer to a certainty in my opinion).

 

[orangerider]

Wiggins will take it - he hardly had to do any work in the mountains in the Tour and the last TT was very good preparation work. He's still in top form. If the games were a month out, then I'd say he's doomed but that's not the case here.

 

[search]

Does anyone have any recent news on how Tony Martin's recovery/preparation is going? I can't find anything but presume there is something on German websites

there was something in german media last week, a medal would be "little short of a miracle" and so on. But on his website he sounds very optimistic and says in regards of the timetrial it would have been an advantage to quit the tour early as it gives you the opportunity to work more specifically. I think he still is a challenger for gold.