Who will win the Tour de France 2018?

[Koronin]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.

That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

Nothing suggests Valverde is suddenly a TDF winning candidate either.

Nothing. Don't come with your 1 week tours.

I think it's more a heart thing. However, regardless of the Tour and his past issues (and well still current altitude issues) he can still win another Vuelta and he can still podium at the Tour.

 

[tobydawq]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

Well if the Tour was a hilly classic then yeah Valverde would be one of the favourites but his best grand tour days are over. If he works hard for Quintana he could be invaluable on important stages.

That's just your opinion. Nothing suggests that.

Nothing suggests Valverde is suddenly a TDF winning candidate either.

Nothing. Don't come with your 1 week tours.

That wasn't what he said. He said his best grand tour days are over. And nothing suggests that. They might be but with the level he has shown the past two years, it would be incongruous.

 

[Escarabajo]

People in this forum are voting according to the bookies as well except for Landa. Landa seems to be the anomaly in the voting.
It might have to do more with him being a domestique all his career and not having many opportunities to place high on GC.

 

[ferryman]

Heart, definitely with Nibbles as my Mum called him. Head, wee Richie. And as an aside, I'm not convinced Thomas will dom for Froome in this race. It really is quite an intriguing Tour this year for a number of reasons. Fook that TTT though.

 

[DBotero]

Porte ftw! Froome's got enough wins on his tally,hopefully he can spare one for his former lieutenant.
Anyway this race looks more stacked than ever,lots of people to fight for the podium places.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

The level for love for Valverde? - but of course you are right. There are enough summits around 2000 m asl to conclude that he will be nowhere.
EDIT: And supposing he can still podium is a kind of joke. Especially taking into account well known idea he will not peak at TdF but at WCRR.

 

[Blanco]

I’m going with either Nibali, Major Tom, or possibly Valverde.
Think stage 9 will cause some major gaps and they are the three most likely to survive the carnage. Froome or Nairo would have to pull off another Finestre and I don’t see that being possible against Nibali or Movistar.

Cannot understand the level of love for Valverde in this thread. Historically (and this guy has more history than anyone) he just doesn't quite have it in the really high mountains over three weeks. And he is in the same team as Quintana (probably the overall favourite) and Landa (about 6th favourite). Yates would be a better chance for the win IMO.

Major Tom would be a big surprise to me too. Unlike Froome, he hasn't yet shown the ability to back up on GC for 2 straight GT's, and the Giro-Tour is the hardest double. There is also precious little ITT kms. The cobble stage might see a couple of casualties, but he isn't going to win the race (same goes for Valverde) if he is only the 10th best climber in the race. Nobody is going to ride away individually on the cobble stage and gain major time (at least it is highly unlikely), and unless he has recovered well from the Giro than he is likely to lose any time gained as quickly as stage 10 into Le Grand Bornand.

As is usually the case, the winner will probably be the best climber, so we're looking at Quintana and Porte, with maybe Froome, Nibali (should be climbing better than Dumoulin), then Yates, Bardet, Uran I suppose.

The level for love for Valverde? - but of course you are right. There are enough summits around 2000 m asl to conclude that he will be nowhere.
EDIT: And supposing he can still podium is a kind of joke. Especially taking into account well known idea he will not peak at TdF but at WCRR.

He doesn't even know what peak is Of course he can podium, just watch and enjoy

 

[Valv.Piti]

Alejandro Don Valverde.

Have to say it even though I dont believe it this year. I did last year.. hope Im getting surprised by him again, altho I feel he won't be 100% and is more realistic and targeting the Vuelta and the Worlds harder than usual. But he will be up there and he will handle the first week better than his amigos. Who knows, maybe he can land a Sastre-esque win, a team-win.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Alejandro Don Valverde.

Have to say it even though I dont believe it this year. I did last year.. hope Im getting surprised by him again, altho I feel he won't be 100% and is more realistic and targeting the Vuelta and the Worlds harder than usual. But he will be up there and he will handle the first week better than his amigos. Who knows, maybe he can land a Sastre-esque win, a team-win.

This is called a 99.9% heart felt post.

 

[Oliwright]

Nibali '10
Fuglsang
Thomas
Dumoulin
Landa
Bardet
Uran

Froome 1'01
Porte 1'01
Yates 1'01
Nairo Quintana 1'25

Probably means Thomas will be in the GC lead out of the contenders after the TTT

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Alejandro Don Valverde.

Have to say it even though I dont believe it this year. I did last year.. hope Im getting surprised by him again, altho I feel he won't be 100% and is more realistic and targeting the Vuelta and the Worlds harder than usual. But he will be up there and he will handle the first week better than his amigos. Who knows, maybe he can land a Sastre-esque win, a team-win.

This is my feeling and belief of what Don Alejandro is most likely doing as well. He's said he's in race shape. For him that should be good enough to be somewhere in the top 10 in GC, but this isn't his target. He made a comment at the press conference yesterday that he's in good enough shape that if something happens to where he has to take over sole leadership he can manage a good result.

 

[phanatic]

Wow. 41 still going with Froome.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow. 41 still going with Froome.

The poll is cumulative. Froome had about 37 votes in this poll yesterday. He is still the favourite unless the crash injured him.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

Maybe so, but I have seen nothing to suggest is GT victory material, he will need to at least hold on on mountain stages, instead of just limiting losses, certainly against good TT'ers like Froome or Porte. When he finished sixth in the Giro, he actually only finished top 10 on a mountain stage once.

I feel like we're collectively underrating him on this forum.
He was very consistent in the 2016 Giro and in 2017 as well. The first week suits him a lot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in yellow at some point during the next few days. Perhaps I'm too optimistic but I don't see why someone like Geraint Thomas should be considered among the top10 favorites for this Tour and he shouldn't even be mentioned.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

You could possibly add Majka to the list, but Jungels is not a rider to actually win a GT, although a parcours like this possibly favours him

Why not?
He was sixth in a GT at 24 years old, and probably still improving.

Maybe so, but I have seen nothing to suggest is GT victory material, he will need to at least hold on on mountain stages, instead of just limiting losses, certainly against good TT'ers like Froome or Porte. When he finished sixth in the Giro, he actually only finished top 10 on a mountain stage once.

I feel like we're collectively underrating him on this forum.
He was very consistent in the 2016 Giro and in 2017 as well. The first week suits him a lot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in yellow at some point during the next few days. Perhaps I'm too optimistic but I don't see why someone like Geraint Thomas should be considered among the top10 favorites for this Tour and he shouldn't even be mentioned.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=33866

not me and Nirvana

I am quite sure that GT is now their leader. Frome might really be the best professional I know, but he has his limits. And the crash first stage must have hurt. The first half is almost ideal for GT and he will be much stronger in stage nine than Froome.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I relly don't get the Valverde hype though. It seems like every year people forget when Valverde struggles in high mountains in GT's (especially the TDF). They only remember the spring where he wins everything

 

[trucido]

Valverde will need many others to crash and burn before he gets anywhere near the top step.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I relly don't get the Valverde hype though. It seems like every year people forget when Valverde struggles in high mountains in GT's (especially the TDF). They only remember the spring where he wins everything

Meh, he could have won last year. That was the chance.

Ofc in this field, it will get extremely tough and with his prep which I dont consider to be 100% focused on TdF, he wont win this year unless something extraordinarily will happen.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

I relly don't get the Valverde hype though. It seems like every year people forget when Valverde struggles in high mountains in GT's (especially the TDF). They only remember the spring where he wins everything

Well, in his last two completed appearances, he finished: 1)on the podium while working for a teammate (not sacrificing completely, though), and 2)6th, after a tough Giro, while also working for a teammate(although this time completely), and looked arguably stronger than his teammate, who ended up 3rd by the way.
Add to this a fact that in the last two seasons he's climbing better than ever, and that's the reason big enough for this "hype"

 

[Escarabajo]

Maybe I should have added Majka to the Poll!!!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I relly don't get the Valverde hype though. It seems like every year people forget when Valverde struggles in high mountains in GT's (especially the TDF). They only remember the spring where he wins everything

Well, in his last two completed appearances, he finished: 1)on the podium while working for a teammate (not sacrificing completely, though), and 2)6th, after a tough Giro, while also working for a teammate(although this time completely), and looked arguably stronger than his teammate, who ended up 3rd by the way.
Add to this a fact that in the last two seasons he's climbing better than ever, and that's the reason big enough for this "hype"

Fair enough. I will still be completely surprised / shocked if he finishes anywhere near the podium though. Can't see him higher than 6/7th unless some crash storm will happen

 

[PremierAndrew]

Interested in Sky's tactics for the cobbled stage. Can imagine Froome will definitely have Kwiatkowski to guide him through. Will Thomas get Moscon and/or Rowe?

Sky might have a serious team leadership headache on their hands after the cobbles.

Similarly, who's the leader at Movistar?

Quintana should gain back a decent chunk of the minute on the TT over Landa

 

[Oliwright]

GC RIDERS Time
TVG 0'00
Geraint 0'03
Jungels 0'07
Dumoulin 0'11
Uran 0'35
Majka 0'50
Fulgsang 0'51
Porte 0'51
Zakarin 0'52
Valverde 0'53
Landa 0'53
Froome 0'55
Yates 1'00
Nibali 1'06
Bardet 1'15
Kruijwijk 1'15
Roglic 1'15
Molema 1'16
Bernal 1'19
Martin 1'38
Barguil 1'46
Quintana 2'08

It's going to be Tough for Nairo. Interesting that Sky purposefully kept Bernal high on GC, rather than using him up in TTT.

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

Interested in Sky's tactics for the cobbled stage. Can imagine Froome will definitely have Kwiatkowski to guide him through. Will Thomas get Moscon and/or Rowe?

Sky might have a serious team leadership headache on their hands after the cobbles.

Similarly, who's the leader at Movistar?

Quintana should gain back a decent chunk of the minute on the TT over Landa

Thomas will be left to his own devices IMO and he'll do just fine, he is by far the best GC rider on cobbles. Froome will have the whole team and they'll maybe put a Castro to help Bernal. (Edit, he's the most proven on Cobbles, arguably Nibali & Fulgsang are better)

Movsitar will probbaly play it by ear depending on how it turns out, Valverde will probbaly stay with either Nairo or Landa, whoever is up front. They'll probs split the team. Erviti has long been loyal to Quintana, so I expect him to be Nairo's chief bodyguard.

Also we haven't really seen a Nairo who's far behind & in great form since 2015, so he could be a great card to play in the mountains since he'd be up for putting it all on the line.

 

[thehog]

The cobbled stage in the 2018 Tour de France features fifteen stretches of pavé. Totalling at 21.7 kilometres this is the greatest distance of cobbles included in the Tour’s last five ventures onto the pavé.

Maybe certain riders won’t win the Tour on this stage but many may lose it.