Who will win the Tour?

[Miburo]

I've seen some threads but not one with a poll I think. Here we go.

I think it's really hard to call. If Froome is back on the same level as last year it'll be extremely difficult to beat him. But 3 things are different this year.

1.Nibali is here, i don't think he has a chance of winning this but unlike the likes of valverde he has the balls to go from far and maybe burn sky or Froome. Eg last year's stage in the tour where Froome was alone at 100 km, if Nibali was there...completely different story.

2.Contador. I think he's at giro 2011 level, i don't think Froome can drop him, i could be wrong though. There's the issue though that Contador needs to drop him, he proved in the dauphine that he can do it but that froome after the crash wasn't really 100% so can he do it in the tour too?

3.The stages, some stages really are attractive for attackers. Stage 2 for example. The course is imo way better than last year, really appealing for some all or nothing attacks. And no TTT, thank god. Cobbles stage is interesting, positioning is extremely important but you've to be lucky in that stage too.

Hopefully these 3 elements will give us a better tour than last year.

Who will win imo? After thinking about it for a while, i'm going with Contador. I think Froome won't get dropped by Contador but i've this feeling there's gonna be a stage where Contador will crush him. A man can dream

 

[arvc40]

Alberto Contador

 

[LaFlorecita]

Baby Blackbird will eat the cricket.

 

[thrawn]

I chose Contador. He's riding better this year, and I think he can drop Vroome Vroome going uphill.

 

[Afrank]

No Schleck in the poll? I REFUSE TO VOTE!!!

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Nibali or Froome. Most likely Nibali though since Aru has loaned him his angel wings for the summer

 

[ILovecycling]

After this stage race we will have new performance benchmark.
Contador 2014


So Im saying,Alberto Contador Velasco of Pinto!
And I will happily support him with endless screaming in frech pyrenees.

 

[jens_attacks]

alberto contador velasco


voted for nibali though. hopefully papy horner will be at top too.

 

[Carols]

Alberto Contador

Froome will be exhausted from chasing him all over France and tank the TT

I Believe!

 

[deValtos]

We really need dual polls, heart and head options.

Some people vote who they would like to win and others who they think will win so I'm not quite sure what the results of this show ?

Double poll !

 

[Jelantik]

Bertie. I BELIEVEEEEEE!!!

 

[Jspear]

Nibali or Froome. Most likely Nibali though since Aru has loaned him his angel wings for the summer

You are one crazy faithful fan.
AC for the win. Nope that isn't the fanboy in me. It's an objective statement.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

You are one crazy faithful fan.
AC for the win. Nope that isn't the fanboy in me. It's an objective statement.

Faith is your expertise though, isn't it?

 

[Netbalp]

a dispassionate bookmakers' eye that always has something to lose

Froome 1.95
Contador 2.5
Nibs 10
Valderde, Talansky 34
TJ, Van den Broeck 41
Rui Costa, Porte 67

 

[Contadoraus Schlecks]

Based on early season form it has to be Contador. Froome talks the talk when things are going great but I don't think he can handle things as well as Contador when the proverbial hits the fan.

 

[trevim]

Froome is my pick to win. Velasco is my hope though. Frank Schleck is the unrealistic pick.

 

[the sceptic]

No Horner in the poll? would have voted him..

Seems like Froome is getting very underrated too. I dont get it. If he is 100% alien then Contador wont beat him no matter what he does.

 

[Poursuivant]

I think it depends on luck, i.e. No one crashing or losing time surprisingly. And also: if it's the Froome of the last two stages of the Dauphine, or the Froome of the first six stages before his crash. Still not heard any quotes from Froome to say his "quad muscles aren't blocked " anymore.

 

[Non Grimpeur]

A very close race between Contador and Froome. The two summit finishes in the Pyrenees could decide it. Saxo look stronger than Sky in the mountains with Roche, Rogers and Kreuziger. Nieve is Froome's best mountain goat.

Jurgen van den Broek looked good in the Dauphine. He might get on the podium.

Contador just for me.

 

[the sceptic]

I think it depends on luck, i.e. No one crashing or losing time surprisingly. And also: if it's the Froome of the last two stages of the Dauphine, or the Froome of the first six stages before his crash. Still not heard any quotes from Froome to say his "quad muscles aren't blocked " anymore.

I think Contador and saxo should put Froome under pressure as early as possible, hopefully on stage 2 and 5. I dont think Froome will perform well under pressure and if he isnt in control of the race. Thats Contadors best chance of winning imo.

 

[shades1]

why has this thread got multiple options , it only needed two !!

 

[ILovecycling]

No Horner in the poll? would have voted him..

Seems like Froome is getting very underrated too. I dont get it. If he is 100% alien then Contador wont beat him no matter what he does.

overrated,if Contador is 2011 (but he will be 2014,that means better hehe) it has to be at least close loss imo not that he 'wont beat him no matter....'

I think Contador and saxo should put Froome under pressure as early as possible, hopefully on stage 2 and 5. I dont think Froome will perform well under pressure and if he isnt in control of the race. Thats Contadors best chance of winning imo.

this is very true of course,but as a fan I would like to see 100% vs 100% in the mounatains and itt (of course its impossible but at least close to) so I hope nothing will happen between gc riders there.


Edit:
@poll: those votes are sick,Froome has to be at least 40% no?

 

[Sciocco]

Contador to build up a 3 minute lead on Froome before the stage 20 ITT via attacking in the mountains, luck/cobbles, following Nibali on a crazy descent or two and relatively poor form from Froome (just slightly below his normal, also he will get better as the tour goes on). Assuming three minute start intervals in the ITT, Froome will catch and pass alberto on the road lead the TdF by 15 to 20 seconds following the ITT. Will go down as one of the greatest ITTs in TdF/cycling history.

 

[SeriousSam]

Here's what the bookmaker odds imply:

Froome, 50%
Contador, 33%
Nibali, 7%
Valverde, 3%
Rest, negligible

Seems about right to me. Froome is the strongest rider, significantly so. Contador is strong but will need luck and tactics to beat Froome who will be transcendental in the MTFs and IIT.

 

[Inquitus]

Froome, though for sure we should be in for a very tight race, weaker Sky team + Contador resurgence and Saxo Strength makes for an interesting cocktail.