Who will win the Tour?

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

You do realize that without stage 13 deficit of 10 min he would end up second in 2013 Tour, the one that he got owned by Purito . And you say after last year's embarrassment ... So 4th place, AHEAD of Purito, Bardet and Van Garderen is an embarassment?!!! You're a little lost, seems to me...

Yeah, Purito was riding for GC last year

At least try to get the facts straight if you discuss about something

I voted for your guy in the poll, for the record. I consider him a great rider, but.., Bala is better rider for me

 

[mr. tibbs]

I want to see Contador do the double, but I think that Froome is looking to be 2013-esque.

Heart: Contador
Head: Froome

Since this is "Who will win" and not "Who do you want to win," I voted Froome. Sigh.

 

[WheelofGear]

Nibali doesn't sound very confident on eve of Tour: "There are good and bad seasons. You have to accept that.”

http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/07/news/nibali-we-are-not-machines_376231

He could be bluffing, but I'm already pretty sure that Tejay and Pinot will be able to outclimb him. I know the Tour is not all about the climbs, but I'm not convinced.

If Contador is too tired, I could be a battle between Froome and Quintana in the mountains.

 

[WheelofGear]

Heart: Contador
Head: Froome
Eyes: Quintana
Eyebrows: Nibali

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

I want to see Contador do the double, but I think that Froome is looking to be 2013-esque.

Heart: Contador
Head: Froome

Since this is "Who will win" and not "Who do you want to win," I voted Froome. Sigh.

Same thing here. I want Contador to win, but Froome looks even skinnier than in 2013. So..

 

[Miburo]

I don't think froome will ride away from nibali.

It's been a while since i've seen a good full genius

 

[Supimilian]

Pinot would be awesome, but I doubt anyone has anything for Nibali if he shows up in the same form as last year.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

I don't think froome will ride away from nibali.

It's been a while since i've seen a good full genius

The 6.5 watts/kg ride up Mont Blanc was only a half-genius? Froome's results in Dauphine alone are better than anything Nibali did in the Tour last year.

I was more impressed by TJVG who I think could very well outperform Nibali this year. Same with Pinot.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Re: Re:

The 6.5 watts/kg ride up Mont Blanc was only a half-genius? Froome's results in Dauphine alone are better than anything Nibali did in the Tour last year.

I was more impressed by TJVG who I think could very well outperform Nibali this year. Same with Pinot.

Jim Halpert--I mean, Pinot--is totally my guy this year. I think he may podium again, depending on how well Quintana's form develops for the final week.

 

[Punkan]

Ok, I think Quintana will be superstrong in the mountains and predict he wont lose any time here on his rivals. So where can he lose the tour, given he avoids crashes? He will surely lose some time on stage 1. Where else? Huystage? Hardly see that happening. Stage 4. Dangerous stage for him. Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will be crucial for him here on and between the paves. Echelons? Also a danger, again Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo must see to it that no gaps occur. Movistar looks strong for stage 9 TTT: powerhouses like Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will work hard on the flatter sections, then the strong climbers take over for the last 2k. Can decents cost him time? Maybe, but there only one real downhill finish in this years tour, namely stage 16.

So, if Quintana gets through the first week without without losing more than 30-45 seconds on his main rivals and manages to avoid gaps on crucial decents, I think he is in a strong position to win the tour. But sure, it is a lot of ifs and buts.

 

[ILovecycling]

According to L'Equipe, the Astana team will not be allowed to replace Boom because the test results came after the managers meeting.

Astana already down to 8 riders for ttt.

 

[mr. tibbs]

According to L'Equipe, the Astana team will not be allowed to replace Boom because the test results came after the managers meeting.

Astana already down to 8 riders for ttt.

Damn. Losing Boom is a blow for both the TTT and the stones. It's certainly not going to help Astana's image problems, either, even if it is just the goofy MPCC.

 

[Punkan]

Astana...

 

[mrhender]

Easy now... Still a chance they will bring him and leave MPCC..

Quite sure they will do so if possible...

 

[Billie]

Vino says either Boom or Vanotti will start.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Re:

Ok, I think Quintana will be superstrong in the mountains and predict he wont lose any time here on his rivals. So where can he lose the tour, given he avoids crashes? He will surely lose some time on stage 1. Where else? Huystage? Hardly see that happening. Stage 4. Dangerous stage for him. Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will be crucial for him here on and between the paves. Echelons? Also a danger, again Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo must see to it that no gaps occur. Movistar looks strong for stage 9 TTT: powerhouses like Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will work hard on the flatter sections, then the strong climbers take over for the last 2k. Can decents cost him time? Maybe, but there only one real downhill finish in this years tour, namely stage 16.

So, if Quintana gets through the first week without without losing more than 30-45 seconds on his main rivals and manages to avoid gaps on crucial decents, I think he is in a strong position to win the tour. But sure, it is a lot of ifs and buts.

'
Quintana will drop time in the first week if we have any men in this race.

 

[Gigs_98]

According to L'Equipe, the Astana team will not be allowed to replace Boom because the test results came after the managers meeting.

Astana already down to 8 riders for ttt.

I am not the biggest astana fan but I think you can say generally that this is bad news

 

[ILovecycling]

According to L'Equipe, the Astana team will not be allowed to replace Boom because the test results came after the managers meeting.

Astana already down to 8 riders for ttt.

I am not the biggest astana fan but I think you can say generally that this is bad news

It is, I hope they can figure it out (not leving mpcc tho,that would be laughable )

 

[perico]

Re:

Ok, I think Quintana will be superstrong in the mountains and predict he wont lose any time here on his rivals. So where can he lose the tour, given he avoids crashes? He will surely lose some time on stage 1. Where else? Huystage? Hardly see that happening. Stage 4. Dangerous stage for him. Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will be crucial for him here on and between the paves. Echelons? Also a danger, again Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo must see to it that no gaps occur. Movistar looks strong for stage 9 TTT: powerhouses like Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will work hard on the flatter sections, then the strong climbers take over for the last 2k. Can decents cost him time? Maybe, but there only one real downhill finish in this years tour, namely stage 16.

So, if Quintana gets through the first week without without losing more than 30-45 seconds on his main rivals and manages to avoid gaps on crucial decents, I think he is in a strong position to win the tour. But sure, it is a lot of ifs and buts.

The closer Quintana is to the other three entering the mountains, the less likely it is that he will be able to ride away from them to win the tour. I call it the "Lucho effect." When Herrera burst onto the scene, he could drop the best climbers from Europe with ease, but would lose massive time on the flats, cobbles, TTs. The more he improved in other disciplines, the worse his climbing got, to the point that he was no longer a contender and was routinely dropped by more powerful "diesel" climbers in the high mountains (this was still before EPO was rampant enough to be the blame for his decline- see Abts book on the 1988 season). That's not to say that all Columbians are Lucho clones, but Quintana is strikingly similar in size/stature/style to the 1st wave of Colombians in the Tour.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Nibali.

This Tour requires lot of versatility and flexibility and there is no better GC rider than Nibali on this front. Had Contador not ridden the Giro I would have picked him, but now I see him as a dark horse instead of a favourite.
Froome might be as strong in 2013, but his competion is far stronger than then. He needs to show qualities previously unseen to win this Tour, pure power alone won't be enough this time around.
For Quintana the first week is too much of a question mark for me to pick him as a 2015 Tour winner. If he is within a minute of his main rivals after TTT he becomes the number one favourite for me.

 

[cineteq]

GC (stage 1)
1 Rohan DENNIS AUS BMC
9 Wilco KELDERMAN NED TLJ 30
11 Robert GESINK NED TLJ 33
14 Bauke MOLLEMA NED TFR 37
17 Rigoberto URAN URAN COL EQS 40
18 Thibaut PINOT FRA FDJ 41
20 Tejay VAN GARDEREN USA BMC 42
22 Vincenzo NIBALI ITA AST 43
39 Christopher FROOME GBR SKY 50
43 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE ESP MOV 56
46 Alberto CONTADOR VELASCO ESP TCS 58
50 Jean-Christophe PERAUD FRA ALM 59
57 Nairo Alexander QUINTANA ROJAS COL MOV +1:01
90 Andrew TALANSKY USA TCG +1:15

 

[Cookster15]

GC (stage 1)
1 Rohan DENNIS AUS BMC
9 Wilco KELDERMAN NED TLJ 30
11 Robert GESINK NED TLJ 33
14 Bauke MOLLEMA NED TFR 37
17 Rigoberto URAN URAN COL EQS 40
18 Thibaut PINOT FRA FDJ 41
20 Tejay VAN GARDEREN USA BMC 42
22 Vincenzo NIBALI ITA AST 43
39 Christopher FROOME GBR SKY 50
43 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE ESP MOV 56
46 Alberto CONTADOR VELASCO ESP TCS 58
50 Jean-Christophe PERAUD FRA ALM 59
57 Nairo Alexander QUINTANA ROJAS COL MOV +1:01
90 Andrew TALANSKY USA TCG +1:15

Yes I just voted for Vincenzo after today's result. Would be funny if the defending champion who virtually nobody was tipping over the other big 3 could pull it off. I still think a lot of people under estimated Nibali's form last year when he was never truly tested once AC and Froome pulled out. The dark horse will be Quintana once get to the hills.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Ok, I think Quintana will be superstrong in the mountains and predict he wont lose any time here on his rivals. So where can he lose the tour, given he avoids crashes? He will surely lose some time on stage 1. Where else? Huystage? Hardly see that happening. Stage 4. Dangerous stage for him. Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will be crucial for him here on and between the paves. Echelons? Also a danger, again Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo must see to it that no gaps occur. Movistar looks strong for stage 9 TTT: powerhouses like Malori, Dowsett and Castroviejo will work hard on the flatter sections, then the strong climbers take over for the last 2k. Can decents cost him time? Maybe, but there only one real downhill finish in this years tour, namely stage 16.

So, if Quintana gets through the first week without without losing more than 30-45 seconds on his main rivals and manages to avoid gaps on crucial decents, I think he is in a strong position to win the tour. But sure, it is a lot of ifs and buts.

The closer Quintana is to the other three entering the mountains, the less likely it is that he will be able to ride away from them to win the tour. I call it the "Lucho effect." When Herrera burst onto the scene, he could drop the best climbers from Europe with ease, but would lose massive time on the flats, cobbles, TTs. The more he improved in other disciplines, the worse his climbing got, to the point that he was no longer a contender and was routinely dropped by more powerful "diesel" climbers in the high mountains (this was still before EPO was rampant enough to be the blame for his decline- see Abts book on the 1988 season). That's not to say that all Columbians are Lucho clones, but Quintana is strikingly similar in size/stature/style to the 1st wave of Colombians in the Tour.

I think you are confusing the Lucho effect a bit. He had bad days in the mountains more than what you said. But He was usually a very good climber and one of the best. That is usually the case with the smaller riders or pure climbers. I call it the pure climber’s effect. We already discussed it here. Delgado never won a Tour until he could managed the bad days in the Tour. But when not a bad day, he was one of the best.

Having said that, I think Quintana is a different rider to Lucho, both, mentally and physically.

 

[cineteq]

Exciting times to come!

GC (stage 2)
1. CANCELLARA Fabian TREK FACTORY RACING
7. URAN URAN Rigoberto ETIXX-QUICK STEP + 00' 42''
8. VAN GARDEREN Tejay BMC RACING TEAM + 00' 44''
10. FROOME Christopher TEAM SKY + 00' 48''
14. CONTADOR Alberto TINKOFF-SAXO + 01' 00''
28. GESINK Robert TEAM LOTTO NL - JUMBO + 01' 59''''
30. MOLLEMA Bauke TREK FACTORY RACING + 02' 03''
31. PINOT Thibaut FDJ + 02' 07''
33. NIBALI Vincenzo ASTANA PRO TEAM + 02' 09''
39. VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro MOVISTAR TEAM + 02' 22''
41. PÉRAUD Jean-Christophe AG2R LA MONDIALE + 02' 25''
44. QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander MOVISTAR TEAM + 02' 27''
52. COSTA Rui Alberto LAMPRE - MDA + 02' 39''
55. TALANSKY Andrew TEAM CANNONDALE-GARMIN + 02' 41''
71. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin TEAM KATUSHA + 02' 52''
78. BARDET Romain AG2R LA MONDIALE + 03' 00''

 

[cineteq]

GC (stage 3)
1 Christopher FROOME GBR SKY
3 Tejay VAN GARDEREN USA BMC +13
7 Rigoberto URAN URAN COL EQS +34
8 Alberto CONTADOR VELASCO ESP TCS +36
12 Bauke MOLLEMA NED TFR +1:32
13 Vincenzo NIBALI ITA AST +1:38
14 Robert GESINK NED TLJ +1:39
16 Alejandro VALVERDE BELMONTE ESP MOV +1:51
17 Nairo Alexander QUINTANA ROJAS COL MOV +1:56
18 Joaquin RODRIGUEZ OLIVER ESP KAT +2:00
20 Daniel MARTIN IRL TCG +2:06
21 Jean-Christophe PERAUD FRA ALM +2:07
23 Andrew TALANSKY USA TCG +2:39
26 Romain BARDET FRA ALM +2:54
27 Thibaut PINOT FRA FDJ +2:58
30 Rui Alberto FARIA DA COSTA POR LAM +3:10