Who wins the tour 2014 now?

[Afrank]

Voted Nibali...of course.

I expect Contador to give him a good fight in the mountains and make up enough time for 2nd if he can't dispatch Nibali. We still have yet to see how Nibali's climbing form on some serious climbs are, but I think he will be able to hang with Contador for the most part. Especially if it's true that he's lighter then he was at the Giro. No matter what happens I think we'll get a great battle.

In my ideal scenario, Contador gives Nibali a big fight and Nibali defends well but evenutally Contador takes yellow at some point. The two continue to battle it out until finally Nibali is able to take back yellow in the final TT and take the win with Contador 2nd.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I stay with Contador since March...

 

[webbie146]

The competition sucked in the giro last year. Impossible to tell how good nibali was there.

(6.4 w/kg in the 10.9 km, 7.7% gradient climb of Montasio in Giro 2013. Numbers don't lie he was great.

I think Nibali will win, but it will be close.

 

[pigoonse]

Even though I have no clue who will win this TdF at this point, I had to vote in the poll because apparently voting makes me feel powerful

Based on who will win right now, I will take the guy in yellow today.

 

[jens_attacks]

(6.4 w/kg in the 10.9 km, 7.7% gradient climb of Montasio in Giro 2013. Numbers don't lie he was great.

I think Nibali will win, but it will be close.

he didn't do more than 6 w/kg on montasio for sure
his greatest performance was polsa mtt

only if he's even at higher level than giro 2013 he will have some chances against alberto. but in the pyrenees,alberto and tinkov will be super strong

 

[LaFlorecita]

he didn't do more than 6 w/kg on montasio for sure
his greatest performance was polsa mtt

only if he's even at higher level than giro 2013 he will have some chances against alberto. but in the pyrenees,alberto and tinkov will be super strong

Hope you're right jens

 

[Oldman]

Alberto has stated openly that Froome - NOT Nibali- was his main rival for this Tour- just Google it.
the 2nd part - Nibali is going to lose the Jersey to Sagan in the coming days so..........

You read one quote, add some infill and draw a conclusion. Nowhere does AC suggest he doesn't worry about anyone else but Froome. Google aside.
Nibali won't lose the jersey to Sagan if Peter can't stay on his bike....
That's the problem making blanket assumptions about the Tour this early. I think Nibali needs to give the jersey up to someone to save his team. Right now that's not an easy strategic job without concessions of time.

 

[icefire]

Like last year's Vuelta after the ITT, this is Nibali's to lose; he'll manage to do it.

 

[staubsauger]

While the competition wasn't great. He dealt with Uran far more easily than Quintana did this year, and we know Quintana's level from last years TDF.

Yea Quintana's level at the tour probably was lightly lower than at the end of this years Giro.

Yes Urans level at last years Giro was better than it was this year.

Yes Nibali dealt more easily with a better Uran.

But Nibali is the better time trailer, so Uran had no benefit over him in that category.

No, you can't conclude out of this that Nibali will win the tour. His opponent is neither Quintana or Uran

 

[buckle]

I voted Porte but SKY lost another today and Kelly was laughing at their tactics. It's got to be AC.

 

[ciranda]

I doubt it, but if Astana went all in, then Nibali could maybe still have to contend with Fuglsang. Not exactly a loyal dom, that guy, and seemingly in great form. His record as a climber is not that great, of course, but nothing would surprise me anymore.

Huh, hardest stage of the Tour last year, Alpe d’Huez, he was fourth of the GC top ten and consistent on all other mountain stages. The three guys from the top ten who finished in front of him were Froome, Quintana and Rodriguez btw.

 

[maxmartin]

You read one quote, add some infill and draw a conclusion. Nowhere does AC suggest he doesn't worry about anyone else but Froome. Google aside.
Nibali won't lose the jersey to Sagan if Peter can't stay on his bike....
That's the problem making blanket assumptions about the Tour this early. I think Nibali needs to give the jersey up to someone to save his team. Right now that's not an easy strategic job without concessions of time.

I am calm now because I know the team is supporting me,” Nibali said. “Things have gone really well so far, and with the advantage we have, we will be able to carry the yellow jersey into the climbing stages. It’s better to have the jersey than to be chasing it.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Like last year's Vuelta after the ITT, this is Nibali's to lose; he'll manage to do it.

Last years giro was Wiggos to loose, but Nibali managed to win it

 

[Oldman]

I am calm now because I know the team is supporting me,” Nibali said. “Things have gone really well so far, and with the advantage we have, we will be able to carry the yellow jersey into the climbing stages. It’s better to have the jersey than to be chasing it.

He's correct about the possibility of hanging on to it but I can't agree on the ease of protecting it. We'll need to see a serious mountain stage to know who really wants to wreck the Tour and how well any rider is supported by their respective teams. The last two stages' casualty list includes a few climbing lieutenants.
It's an interesting situation now and more open than a lot of Tours.

 

[sir fly]

In the post-stage statement today, Contador said that he's expecting Hernandez to be ready for the Vuelta.
Does it mean he's already thinking about his home GT?
If he is, then we shouldn't bet on Contador in this race.

 

[Sciocco]

In the post-stage statement today, Contador said that he's expecting Hernandez to be ready for the Vuelta.
Does it mean he's already thinking about his home GT?
If he is, then we shouldn't bet on Contador in this race.

Contador's been saying all year he was going to do Tour-Vuelta. Seeing how Tinkov-Saxo look right now he is hoping Hernandez to be fit for the Vuelta because the team is going to be lacking big time.

 

[maxmartin]

stage 10 is fascinating, suits Nibali more than AC, expect Nibali takes more time

 

[sir fly]

Contador's been saying all year he was going to do Tour-Vuelta. Seeing how Tinkov-Saxo look right now he is hoping Hernandez to be fit for the Vuelta because the team is going to be lacking big time.

I'm familiar with his 2014 schedule. What I want to say is that thinking about Vuelta after only the sixth stage of the Tour isn't the best indicator of the fighting spirit.

 

[Sciocco]

I'm familiar with his 2014 schedule. What I want to say is that thinking about Vuelta after only the sixth stage of the Tour isn't the best indicator of the fighting spirit.

I see. I think it is pretty simple though in regards to that. Hernandez is Contador's buddy and he'll miss him and wishes him well and looks forward to riding the next GT with him. I dunno if it really speaks about Contador's fighting spirit though, he tends to show that on the road. Last year he was a terrible, terrible version of himself and he tried even when he had no chance at all.

 

[Sciocco]

stage 10 is fascinating, suits Nibali more than AC, expect Nibali takes more time

A multiple mountain stage (though lacking altitude) with steep gradients suits Nibali more than Contador? Do you expect Nibali to attack on the last downhill section? What if Contador goes before then? What if there is still a group at that point? There are some later stages I would say fit Nibali much more than stage 10 does.

 

[sir fly]

stage 10 is fascinating, suits Nibali more than AC, expect Nibali takes more time

Offers plenty of opportunities to blow the race early.
But it might be just too early in the race for the fireworks. Some testing is certain, though.

 

[maxmartin]

Offers plenty of opportunities to blow the race early.
But it might be just too early in the race for the fireworks. Some testing is certain, though.

AC is eager to take some time back, VN wants to consolidate the lead to show who is the real boss. And the next day is rest day, I am expecting big clash.

 

[maxmartin]

A multiple mountain stage (though lacking altitude) with steep gradients suits Nibali more than Contador? Do you expect Nibali to attack on the last downhill section? What if Contador goes before then? What if there is still a group at that point? There are some later stages I would say fit Nibali much more than stage 10 does.

you call those gradients steep? LOL, not even a single HC category, of course it suits tough guy like Nibali.

 

[Sciocco]

you call those gradients steep? LOL, not even a single HC category, of course it suits tough guy like Nibali.

Since when does HC mean steep in the TdF? Alpe d'Huez is HC and it's like 8-8.5% average?

Certainly not a Zoncolan or Angliru (only the Giro and Vuelta use real mountains) but it is steep for the tour. Hell, 9% gradient is steep for the tour.

Stages 11 and 16 look perfect for Nibali to launch an attack.

 

[maxmartin]

Since when does HC mean steep in the TdF? Alpe d'Huez is HC and it's like 8-8.5% average?

Certainly not a Zoncolan or Angliru (only the Giro and Vuelta use real mountains) but it is steep for the tour. Hell, 9% gradient is steep for the tour.

Stages 11 and 16 look perfect for Nibali to launch an attack.

PM me after stage 10. Can't wait for this stage to start.