Who wins the tour 2014 now?

[Cookster15]

Contador put 6:56 into Nibali in 2011 Giro. With the time to makeup, it is game on but I still expect Contador to makeup 3 minutes and thus win.

I doubt if Contador is in 2011 Giro form - and I think Nibali is better than then. But we will see. It should be exciting either way as both are attacking riders.

 

[Jspear]

Barring crashes and mechanicals AC is the top fav.

 

[alspacka]

Voted for Porte despite him being 3rd favourite at best. He looks fresh, took time on every GC guy bar one/two including Kwiat today. Could reasonably be expected to beat GC rivals in the TT. It would still require some misfortune for Bertie at some point, but I reckon he can drop Nibali in the mountains.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Voted for Porte despite him being 3rd favourite at best. He looks fresh, took time on every GC guy bar one/two including Kwiat today. Could reasonably be expected to beat GC rivals in the TT. It would still require some misfortune for Bertie at some point, but I reckon he can drop Nibali in the mountains.

Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?

He will soon......

 

[alspacka]

Has Porte ever dropped Nibali in any mountain?

Well, he's had a very brief climbing peak, during which he didn't race Nibali I think. If he can reach that form again, and, given that he's had a relatively light schedule and this is sky at their precious tour, I think he will. Perhaps I should rephrase, he stands a better chance of sticking with Contador than Nibali.
I hope I'm wrong and will be cheering Lo Squalo all day every day

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

He will soon......

I feel that declaring war against the AC fans were not such a good idea, when they are 10 to 1...

 

[Sciocco]

I voted Contador, but I believe it will come down to the last mountain/TT between him and Nibali. I hope it is very close.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I feel that declaring war against the AC fans were not such a good idea, when they are 10 to 1...

Porte and his backers are a bit thick.... skinned.

 

[BYOP88]

Pinot to win for me (and Brailsford to claim he was the mastermind behind it )

 

[CycloAndy]

1) Contador
2) Nibali
3) Valverde
Contador will beat Nibali in the mountains. Porte will get top 10 but not much higher.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think Nibali takes more time in the Vosges over the weekend. More rain on the way and it will be mid mountain classics-type stuff where he'll be in his element. After that he can just ride smart and his strong team will see him home

 

[Sciocco]

I think Nibali takes more time in the Vosges over the weekend. More rain on the way and it will be mid mountain classics-type stuff where he'll be in his element. After that he can just ride smart and his strong team will see him home

I was thinking that too at first, but I looked at the gradients on stage 8 and 10 and I believe Contador can drop and gain time on Nibali in both stages (very little on 8, decent chunk on 10). About stage 9, Nibali could attack on the descent of the last mountain, but its 20kms+ of flat after a long descent.

 

[The Hitch]

If I only knew the result of today's stage I'd say Contador. But actually seeing how strong Nibali was, I have to go with him.

My thoughts too. I thought losing 3 minutes for Contador would still be ok since it would probably be crash or mech or something.

But the way Nibali with a couple of domestiques, riding solo sometimes, put all that time into the combined power of Saxo and Movi, he's strong.

 

[Publicus]

Ask me after Monday's stage.

 

[Red Rick]

Still think Contador will win. Nibali winning would also be great. If Porte wins I'll throw up my mouth a lot and my get myself banned for a while here

 

[The Hitch]

Although I would like Contador to win I still voted on Nibali. Why? Contador basically has to gain almost 3 minutes in the mountains over Nibali. Obviously it's possible (Contador is the best climber in the race) but not very likely. From what we've seen so far I think Nibali is now much better than in the Dauphine and can limit his loses. I could be close in the final TT but Nibali is also a decent time trialist.

It's also possible that Contador will crush his rivals in the mountains and still win GC by 4-5 minutes (that would be cool ) but we will see.

Contador can't just go on single mtfs. He has to push things from further out now, make stages harder, and he needs to hope other gc contenders are willing to help him out with that.

 

[orangerider]

Contador will still win easily. Nibali never is able to match Contador's attacks on the mountains. What Nibali did was separate himself from the others to lock into a podium finish.

 

[hfer07]

Nibali will win this Tour because Contador is making the biggest mistake by underestimating Vincenzo.

 

[SeriousSam]

It's hard to say. Almost a coinflip, but I give Nibali the edge. He seems to be very strong.

 

[Oldman]

Nibali will win this Tour because Contador is making the biggest mistake by underestimating Vincenzo.

Did AC tell you this? Sounds like his therapist speaking.
I think other riders still consider this pretty open and will attack everywhere making this a difficult race to control. Nibali needs to guess correctly, like he did today and stay ahead of chaos. I don't like his odds with his team needing to control a lot of territory ahead.

 

[hfer07]

Did AC tell you this? Sounds like his therapist speaking.
I think other riders still consider this pretty open and will attack everywhere making this a difficult race to control. Nibali needs to guess correctly, like he did today and stay ahead of chaos. I don't like his odds with his team needing to control a lot of territory ahead.

Alberto has stated openly that Froome - NOT Nibali- was his main rival for this Tour- just Google it.
the 2nd part - Nibali is going to lose the Jersey to Sagan in the coming days so..........

 

[SeriousSam]

Alberto has stated openly that Froome - NOT Nibali- was his main rival for this Tour- just Google it.

That was an accurate assessment of the situation. No one gave Nibali a significant chance to win the Tour. Unlikely events can and do occur, and now he's the favourite, but that doesn't mean that he was at the start of the tour. Pretending he was is hindsight bias.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

What we did learn today is that Nibbles is here to win., no matter what. But I really need to see how he responds and attacks in the mountains before anything.

 

[Taxus4a]

The competition sucked in the giro last year. Impossible to tell how good nibali was there.

sucked??

It is your opinion, that Nibali was stronger that Contador this year.
It is the same Nibali that dropped Contador in Tirreno.
Uran was second and Uran climbed this year with Quintana in Zoncolan.