Who wins the tour 2014 now?

[Sciocco]

PM me after stage 10. Can't wait for this stage to start.

Me too. though tomorrow's stage, saturday's stage and sunday's stage can hopefully be enjoyable as well.

 

[SafeBet]

It comes down to wether Nibbles can climb like last year (even 2012 level would be ok, I guess). He stands no chance otherwise. From what I've seen he looks much better on the bike compared to the rest of the year, when he couldn't sustain prolonged efforts, no matter the terrain.

Going back to the last 6-7 GTs I struggle to find a stage where Nibs cracked badly, so it won't be easy to put minutes into him in normal conditions. It should be noted though that this Tour gives plenty of opportunities for attacks, hence time could be made up little by little. I see at least 4 stages where a top shaped Berto can drop Nibbles, if not more. At the same time, there's a few stages where Nibbles could try and gain more time, attacking on descents or using the strength of his team.

Would be epic to get to the final ITT with the being separated by less than a minute, no matter who's in yellow.

Everybody else is out of the picture for the jersey, unless full *** occurs obviously. Exciting battle for the podium though.

 

[dduff442]

Everybody else is out of the picture for the jersey, unless full *** occurs obviously. Exciting battle for the podium though.

Well you'll never ever see that from Nibali.

 

[LaFlorecita]

stage 10 is fascinating, suits Nibali more than AC, expect Nibali takes more time

Sheesh guy, you might end up horribly disappointed.

 

[indianfanboy]

stage 10 is fascinating, suits Nibali more than AC, expect Nibali takes more time

Yeah sure thats why i expect Contador to put 30 secs atleast on Nibali

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yeah sure thats why i expect Contador to put 30 secs atleast on Nibali

I don't expect 30s, it's not a HC mountain, I'd be thrilled with 20s. But yes, I expect Contador to take time on Nibali

 

[indianfanboy]

I don't expect 30s, it's not a HC mountain, I'd be thrilled with 20s. But yes, I expect Contador to take time on Nibali

Still there is a lot of climbing before the final MTF three Cat 1 climbs to be dealt with unlike in 2012 it was a straight run into Planches des Bellies still we saw some small 20sec gaps(Nibali couldnt keep up with Wiggins)...this stage is tough expect some major gaps

 

[Justico]

If Contador would have Kreuziger .... or Sky domestiques ... but he is all alone again.

Nibali for the win

 

[Pulpstar]

Voted Contador, but I'm really not sure.

The time gap Nibali has is intriguing from trying to guess who will win the race. Which is great.

 

[Climbing]

Let's wait for some climbing before giving a more ponderated answer.

Nibali has the best team and possibly strong legs (looks like he peaked at the perfect time - luck?!), and a very good lead on his main rival.

If he has 2013 climbing form, which i wouldn't have believed considering his season, then he has all the chances to win the Tour.

If the bad weather continues, he's going to gain time in this next 3 stages starting from saturday, not lose it.

 

[xanadu]

Nibali`s heroics on the cobbles were admirable and his victory a triumph, but it should not be overrated. Mountain pixies do not like cobbles, TJ, Tallansky, Van de B and Portre were delayed by incidents, besides Fugslang came over the line on Nibali`s wheel, are we touting him as a potential winner.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Nibali`s heroics on the cobbles were admirable and his victory a triumph, but it should not be overrated. Mountain pixies do not like cobbles, TJ, Tallansky, Van de B and Portre were delayed by incidents, besides Fugslang came over the line on Nibali`s wheel, are we touting him as a potential winner.

I get the feeling Contador is much skinnier than Nibali. I found this article http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939 in which the team doctor says Nibali's fat percentage is 6.5%. That seems about right. (IIRC Dr Ferrari estimated Nibali at 6-7%) Meanwhile Contador has bulging veins all over his body and I've never seen him this skinny, judging by his face. Hmm

 

[sir fly]

I get the feeling Contador is much skinnier than Nibali. I found this article http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939 in which the team doctor says Nibali's fat percentage is 6.5%. That seems about right. (IIRC Dr Ferrari estimated Nibali at 6-7%) Meanwhile Contador has bulging veins all over his body and I've never seen him this skinny, judging by his face. Hmm

He's getting old.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Nibali will lose 30-45 seconds to AC on every summit finish. Can't see how it's impossible for AC to get back. I think Valverde and Nibali are a level below AC in the mountains. Porte's form is very questionable, but a 2013-Porte can easily drop Nibali/Valverde. Luckily he always has a bad day, so I won't expect him to feature in the top 3

 

[whittashau]

I get the feeling Contador is much skinnier than Nibali. I found this article http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/dmf20140710_01174939 in which the team doctor says Nibali's fat percentage is 6.5%. That seems about right. (IIRC Dr Ferrari estimated Nibali at 6-7%) Meanwhile Contador has bulging veins all over his body and I've never seen him this skinny, judging by his face. Hmm

According to Nibali's coach he is 1.5kgs lighter than he was in last year's Giro while producing the same amount of Watts

 

[LaFlorecita]

According to Nibali's coach he is 1.5kgs lighter than he was in last year's Giro while producing the same amount of Watts

Well if that's the case he will easily drop Contador uphill.

 

[whittashau]

There is no need for sarcasm, but I do think Nibali will be very hard for Bertie to drop, but weight isn't the only factor. I think fatigue will play a bigger part than it typically does as every stage has been difficult

 

[LaFlorecita]

There is no need for sarcasm, but I do think Nibali will be very hard for Bertie to drop, but weight isn't the only factor. I think fatigue will play a bigger part than it typically does as every stage has been difficult

No sarcasm on my part

 

[Cookster15]

There is no need for sarcasm, but I do think Nibali will be very hard for Bertie to drop, but weight isn't the only factor. I think fatigue will play a bigger part than it typically does as every stage has been difficult

Yes sometimes losing too much weight (compared with what your body is accustomed to) can cost you power and recovery. I agree about Nibs prospects. So not sure what Flo meant by 'hmmm'?

Just my $0.02 worth.

 

[pigoonse]

Well, with any luck, we will get to watch them dropping and attacking each other a lot - Contador and Nibali...

...unless a Giro 2011 style Tour is what you imagine this will be.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yes sometimes losing too much weight (compared with what your body is accustomed to) can cost you power and recovery. I agree about Nibs prospects. So not sure what Flo meant by 'hmmm'?

Just my $0.02 worth.

With hmmm I meant hmmm interesting, perhaps it'll make a difference when we enter the high mountains

 

[LaFlorecita]

Well, with any luck, we will get to watch them dropping and attacking each other a lot - Contador and Nibali...

...unless a Giro 2011 style Tour is what you imagine this will be.

Well I hope Contador drops Nibali, and not the other way round, otherwise this Tour won't be nearly as "exciting" as people are now saying it will be.

If you want an exciting tour, you better hope we see a 2011 Giro- like Tour.

 

[pigoonse]

Well I hope Contador drops Nibali, and not the other way round, otherwise this Tour won't be nearly as "exciting" as people are now saying it will be.

If you want an exciting tour, you better hope we see a 2011 Giro- like Tour.

All that might happen, too. It is your opinion and hopes. I would like to see more competitive action than in the Giro 2011. Basically Contador just destroyed everyone in that Giro, which was fun to see at that time. My hope is that Nibali can challenge him quite a bit more this time.

Contador appeared ready to go, up on the pedals, looking good today. But Nibali was right there with him looking tranquillo. Tomorrow we might get to see Contador attack - like in the Basque Tour, then Nibali has to respond, ect... will be fun to see the contest.

What will Contador do? Will he attack in the first mountains or wait until later next week?

 

[Tonton]

All that might happen, too. It is your opinion and hopes. I would like to see more competitive action than in the Giro 2011. Basically Contador just destroyed everyone in that Giro, which was fun to see at that time. My hope is that Nibali can challenge him quite a bit more this time.

Contador appeared ready to go, up on the pedals, looking good today. But Nibali was right there with him looking tranquillo. Tomorrow we might get to see Contador attack - like in the Basque Tour, then Nibali has to respond, ect... will be fun to see the contest.

What will Contador do? Will he attack in the first mountains or wait until later next week?

Good points, good question, and I think that Contador will attack tomorrow and try to shave a few seconds, nibble Nibali's lead. Other question though: what will both riders do if a third guy takes off, say Valverde for example? Look at each other? Who will react? I can't wait!!!

 

[LaFlorecita]

All that might happen, too. It is your opinion and hopes. I would like to see more competitive action than in the Giro 2011. Basically Contador just destroyed everyone in that Giro, which was fun to see at that time. My hope is that Nibali can challenge him quite a bit more this time.

Contador appeared ready to go, up on the pedals, looking good today. But Nibali was right there with him looking tranquillo. Tomorrow we might get to see Contador attack - like in the Basque Tour, then Nibali has to respond, ect... will be fun to see the contest.

What will Contador do? Will he attack in the first mountains or wait until later next week?

Of course if it was a normal race it would be good if Nibali can keep up with Contador.. but he's 2'37" ahead!! If he can stay with Contador we can say bye bye to a good battle for the yellow jersey