Who wins the tour 2014 now?

[pigoonse]

Of course if it was a normal race it would be good if Nibali can keep up with Contador.. but he's 2'37" ahead!! If he can stay with Contador we can say bye bye to a good battle for the yellow jersey

It is just a simple matter of difference in opinion in what is a good battle, then.

If I thought this was Contador's last chance for a TdF I might feel different. As it is, what I hope for is lots of action and a possibly a new winner that I am not expecting to win. I don't think this is Nibali's only chance at winning a TdF, either. Both riders make bike racing interesting and I would love to see Nibali keeping up with Contador. What would be disappointing is if Froome was still in and in his TdF form and he just destroyed the field like last year; or Contador wins by an absurd amount of time.

Tonton, thanks for your response. Can't wait, either! This weekend is TDF weekend at my house.

 

[staubsauger]

Well I hope Contador drops Nibali, and not the other way round, otherwise this Tour won't be nearly as "exciting" as people are now saying it will be.

If you want an exciting tour, you better hope we see a 2011 Giro- like Tour.

There was nothing exciting about the 2011 Giro. Just a Spaniard who never should've been allowed to race owned the race.

Just as in 2007 when he got Rasmussen's stolen victory as a present, when he never should've been allowed to race.

 

[maxmartin]

There was nothing exciting about the 2011 Giro. Just a Spaniard who never should've been allowed to race owned the race.

Just as in 2007 when he got Rasmussen's stolen victory as a present, when he never should've been allowed to race.

nice one!!!

 

[sagard]

Hard to look past Contador. Using the Dauphine short TT is an indicator where Contador took 5 seconds over Nibali 10K, I'm guessing he takes a least a half minute over the TT. That leaves him roughly two minutes to take from Nibali in the mountains. Has there ever been a grand tour where he hasn't done that?

Hopefully Contador has a bad day like he occasionally has since returning from his drug suspension. Then things would super close going into the stage 20 TT.

 

[maxmartin]

Hard to look past Contador. Using the Dauphine short TT is an indicator where Contador took 5 seconds over Nibali 10K, I'm guessing he takes a least a half minute over the TT. That leaves him roughly two minutes to take from Nibali in the mountains. Has there ever been a grand tour where he hasn't done that?

Hopefully Contador has a bad day like he occasionally has since returning from his drug suspension. Then things would super close going into the stage 20 TT.

using dauphine TT as an indicator, not sure about AC, but Nibali definitely is not at that level

 

[StyrbjornSterki]

...Who wins it now?...

Same as it ever was. The rider who dopes the best without being caught.

My money's on Señor Clenbuterol.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

using dauphine TT as an indicator, not sure about AC, but Nibali definitely is not at that level

Not the most relevant of TTs, that one.

Somehow I doubt that Contador can still bring it in long, flat (ish) TTs, not that it will be necessary.

 

[Cookster15]

Not the most relevant of TTs, that one.

Somehow I doubt that Contador can still bring it in long, flat (ish) TTs, not that it will be necessary.

Not sure about that. Today's finish suited AC far more than Nibali and he gained what, 3 seconds. Noting that AC is 2.34 behind that gap will take some closing based upon what I saw today. If Contador does not show more than he will need to gain time on TT to have any chance of making the top step. But it's very early days.

 

[Justico]

Assuming no falls of the bike and viruses/illness

Alberto Contador 90%
Richie Porte 9%
Vincenzo Nibali 1%

 

[Oldman]

Not sure about that. Today's finish suited AC far more than Nibali and he gained what, 3 seconds. Noting that AC is 2.34 behind that gap will take some closing based upon what I saw today. If Contador does not show more than he will need to gain time on TT to have any chance of making the top step. But it's very early days.

It's going to take some long mountain days to sort folks out. The weather and crashes of the last week have taxed the peloton more than the mountains will tax the climbers and team representation is becoming more important. Both Saxo and Astana had plenty of bodies at the end of today's stage. Richie Porte even looked OK.

 

[yespatterns]

There was nothing exciting about the 2011 Giro. Just a Spaniard who never should've been allowed to race owned the race.

Just as in 2007 when he got Rasmussen's stolen victory as a present, when he never should've been allowed to race.

Having fun trolling?

 

[Afrank]

Assuming no falls of the bike and viruses/illness

Alberto Contador 90%
Richie Porte 9%
Vincenzo Nibali 1%

Give me one rational argument for why Porte's chances are better then Nibali's?

 

[Ripper]

Give me one rational argument for why Porte's chances are better then Nibali's?

He's a porte fanboy?

 

[Justico]

Give me one rational argument for why Porte's chances are better then Nibali's?

Nibali beat who in the past 3 years ?
Answer : Nobody

At least Porte showed some glimpse last year. If 2013 Porte is back he will trash Nibali.

 

[Tonton]

Not sure about that. Today's finish suited AC far more than Nibali and he gained what, 3 seconds. Noting that AC is 2.34 behind that gap will take some closing based upon what I saw today. If Contador does not show more than he will need to gain time on TT to have any chance of making the top step. But it's very early days.

And so what? At 3 seconds a pop, AC will only need 52 more stages to take the maillot jaune.

I don't think that we have seen anything yet. Alberto flexed his muscles, maybe tried a little psy warfare, nothing more. It's going to be a great TdF...

 

[Afrank]

Nibali beat who in the past 3 years ?
Answer : Nobody

At least Porte showed some glimpse last year. If 2013 Porte is back he will trash Nibali.

Since you don't specify the type of race, let's just take a look at some of the guys Nibali has beaten in overalls of GT's or smaller week long races in the last 3 years. Nibali has beaten...Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Uran, Valverde, Kreuziger, Horner; to name a few of the higher up guys.

Who's Porte beaten? Henao, Contador, TJVG, Mollema, Talansky, Peraud. And not beaten them in any GT's.

But you know what? Let's just look at a complete head 2 head between the two. It's a long list so forgive me for not posting all of it. But I think that total is all we really need for an answer.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/h2h.asp

 

[movingtarget]

Actually Nibali has never beaten Contador or Froome in a GT so I suppose he and Porte are on the same page there but there is no doubt that Nibali has improved. Porte is still an unknown quantity over three weeks and his form this year is nowhere as good as last year but I still think Porte has a shot at the podium and the TT will be good for him or should be.

 

[Afrank]

Actually Nibali has never beaten Contador or Froome in a GT so I suppose he and Porte are on the same page there but there is no doubt that Nibali has improved. Porte is still an unknown quantity over three weeks and his form this year is nowhere as good as last year but I still think Porte has a shot at the podium and the TT will be good for him or should be.

No, he hasn't, but I said...

Since you don't specify the type of race, let's just take a look at some of the guys Nibali has beaten in overalls of GT's or smaller week long races in the last 3 years. Nibali has beaten...Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Uran, Valverde, Kreuziger, Horner; to name a few of the higher up guys.

He beat Contador and Froome in TA last year. I agree he has a chance of a podium. But I don't see him beating Nibali.

 

[Cookster15]

Since you don't specify the type of race, let's just take a look at some of the guys Nibali has beaten in overalls of GT's or smaller week long races in the last 3 years. Nibali has beaten...Contador, Froome, Rodriguez, Uran, Valverde, Kreuziger, Horner; to name a few of the higher up guys.

Who's Porte beaten? Henao, Contador, TJVG, Mollema, Talansky, Peraud. And not beaten them in any GT's.

But you know what? Let's just look at a complete head 2 head between the two. It's a long list so forgive me for not posting all of it. But I think that total is all we really need for an answer.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/h2h.asp

Good try but this is not really a valid comparison. If Porte finds 2013 TDF form without a bad day I think Nibali will be worried (not sure about AC though).

Plus in every GT after 2010 Giro until stage 6 of this year he was riding as support - so sacrificing his own ambitions for Froome or Wiggins.

Can Porte reach a new GT level by riding for himself with team support? We don't have long to wait for the answer. He didn't look too bad yesterday but he will need to improve.

 

[whittashau]

Porte's Tour form from in 2013 wasn't superior to Nibali's 2013 Giro form.

 

[Afrank]

Good try but this is not really a valid comparison. If Porte finds 2013 TDF form without a bad day I think Nibali will be worried (not sure about AC though).

Plus in every GT after 2010 Giro until stage 6 of this year he was riding as support - so sacrificing his own ambitions for Froome or Wiggins.

Can Porte reach a new GT level by riding for himself with team support? We don't have long to wait for the answer. He didn't look too bad yesterday but he will need to improve.

Pretty much what whittashau said. Portes gonna need much better then Tour 2013 to beat Nibali.

Nibali's an experience GT leader and winner. He knows how to race and win/podium a GT much better then Porte does.

 

[Ripper]

Nibali beat who in the past 3 years ?
Answer : Nobody

At least Porte showed some glimpse last year. If 2013 Porte is back he will trash Nibali.

Wow, you're deluded. Nibs has won GTs, Porte has not. If Nibs beat nobodies (always the play of an ignorant to claim that one), then same with Porte.

Porte of 2013 is clinic territory

 

[Ripper]

Good try but this is not really a valid comparison. If Porte finds 2013 TDF form without a bad day I think Nibali will be worried (not sure about AC though).

Plus in every GT after 2010 Giro until stage 6 of this year he was riding as support - so sacrificing his own ambitions for Froome or Wiggins.

Can Porte reach a new GT level by riding for himself with team support? We don't have long to wait for the answer. He didn't look too bad yesterday but he will need to improve.

Jeebus Cookstreet, you're missing the point. One poster seemed to think without a doubt Porte would clobber Nibs and that Nibs in comparison has not beaten anyone. AFrank pointed out that actually, Nibs has done just fine and in comparison, has done much better than Porte.

It's fine if some folks want to have a Porte love in. Whatever. But let's keep the fanboy lenses somewhat clean - to say that Porte is much better than Nibs is not supported. To say 2013 Porte would smoke Nibs doesn't even make sense (erm, 2013 Porte cracked in le Tour)

 

[Miburo]

Pretty much what whittashau said. Portes gonna need much better then Tour 2013 to beat Nibali.

Nibali's an experience GT leader and winner. He knows how to race and win/podium a GT much better then Porte does.

Don't go too crazy man. He needs to be more consistent but that is imo almost enough. Don't forget that Porte had to always blow himself up for Froome.

 

[Cookster15]

Jeebus Cookstreet, you're missing the point. One poster seemed to think without a doubt Porte would clobber Nibs and that Nibs in comparison has not beaten anyone. AFrank pointed out that actually, Nibs has done just fine and in comparison, has done much better than Porte.

It's fine if some folks want to have a Porte love in. Whatever. But let's keep the fanboy lenses somewhat clean - to say that Porte is much better than Nibs is not supported. To say 2013 Porte would smoke Nibs doesn't even make sense (erm, 2013 Porte cracked in le Tour)

Well I think that's where you got me wrong. First I was responding to Frank's post because the comparison of placings he used was flawed for the reasons I wrote. Secondly, please quote where I said Porte would win (don't assume I agree with the "one poster" you mention)? I am saying Porte will worry the likes of Nibali if he shows similar form as he did in 2013. Worry is different to beating or winning the TDF.

Based on Nibali's record I agree he is a better chance than Porte. But I like what I am seeing from Porte so far. The case is not closed.

Yes I'm Australian. You can call that fanboyism but I think it is pretty normal to follow sports people who come from where you do - you see that in the world cup or Olympics. Following sports people with no regard to their nationality is actually the minority I would safely say. Anyhow take fanboys away and I reckon you'd get bored in here.

I don't know or see the riders - I read and make my own judgements based upon logic. When I see things written I don't agree with because I don't think it adds up sometimes I drop in and post what I think. Maybe I'm wrong but if you don't ask, you don't find out.

The only point you'd have with me is perhaps I should limit my comments here to the Porte discussion thread rather than the who wins 2014 TDF thread.