Wiggo at the 2010 Tour

[Angliru]

erm i was actually talking about blind legless pregnant amphibians..



nothing to do with him being spanish.. i think paris-nice, and the famous windy split day in the tour are perfect examples of his ineptness, or is it ineptity

So the windy split day was also a perfect example of the tactical ineptness of every other rider who missed the break ? I would think that a rider is entitled to the occasional lapse during the course of their career. Considering he had been on a streak of winning stage races, not just grand tours up to the 2009 Paris-Nice, his luck was bound to end eventually. Andy Schleck did the same in 2008 at the Tour as did Armstrong at the 2000 Tour (neglected to eat and bonked). Schleck blew any chance of contending at the Tour that year and Armstrong lost time to Ullrich as a result.

 

[auscyclefan94]

i dont think wiggo will do well, there are far to many mountains, and with the amount of great climbers on different teams there will be attacks every where, my top 5 is
1. A.Schleck
2.C.Sastre (remember how fast he can ride up hills?)
3.A.Contador (the new astana will be nothing with out the hog)
4.Lance
5.D.Menchov

Contador will roll Schleck and Sastre in the pancake flat time trial. Lance won't top 5. Menchov won't be there. I think he's doing the Vuelta and Giro.
1.Contador
2. Evans
3.A Schleck
4.Gesink
5.Sastre
(If evans gets invite)

 

[Publicus]

erm i was actually talking about blind legless pregnant amphibians..



nothing to do with him being spanish.. i think paris-nice, and the famous windy split day in the tour are perfect examples of his ineptness, or is it ineptity

I guess I think that's pretty much a stretch. By that logic, I assume you think Andy is pretty inept as well (given his hunger knock in the 2008 TdF). Same with all the other GC conteders who were caught in that same split this year.

 

[battery89]

Contador
A Schleck
Gesink
Armstrong
Evans

Wiggo around 8th.

 

[Anonymous]

I guess I think that's pretty much a stretch. By that logic, I assume you think Andy is pretty inept as well (given his hunger knock in the 2008 TdF). Same with all the other GC conteders who were caught in that same split this year.

but other members of AC's team were better position.. i think his relative lack of experience showed.. and yes, andys as well.. i think AC will struggle without JB.. then again, i think JB will struggle without team radios..

as for tour finishing order, ask me again after the giro, its almost pointless even speculating on it now.. we have no idea who is focussing on which tour, who is strong in the giro, we dont even know who is invited yet.. its pointless..

 

[The Cobra]

I cant see a change from the top two from this year after that its wide open.

1. Contador
2. A. Schleck

After that I think its almost impossible to predict, but I'll give it a go anyway.

3. Wiggins
4. Lance
5. Basso
6. Evans
7. Sastre
8. Nibali
9. Leipheimer
10. Valverde

Even after that names like: Menchov, Gesink, Kreuziger, Kirchen, Sanchez, Kloden, Van der Velde, Frank Schleck could all easily place anywhere form 3rd down.

 

[auscyclefan94]

erm i was actually talking about blind legless pregnant amphibians..



nothing to do with him being spanish.. i think paris-nice, and the famous windy split day in the tour are perfect examples of his ineptness, or is it ineptity

Brits have no reason to have Spainophobia. Aussies do. Spain has cost us,
- 2x Tour de France's
- Vuelta a Espana
- 2x Dauphine

 

[Publicus]

but other members of AC's team were better position.. i think his relative lack of experience showed.. and yes, andys as well.. i think AC will struggle without JB.. then again, i think JB will struggle without team radios..

as for tour finishing order, ask me again after the giro, its almost pointless even speculating on it now.. we have no idea who is focussing on which tour, who is strong in the giro, we dont even know who is invited yet.. its pointless..

Exactly 3 other members were better placed, one of which was rumored to have been tipped off by Hincapie. Kloden and Levi were also caught out of that move. I think your bias is showing (Wiggins didn't make the move either or Cadel or anyone else you fancy, but I don't think you consider them inept), but it's your opinion, so thanks for explaining.

As for his struggle without JB, I don't see it happening (though I guess its possible). He just spent the last year basically isolated without JB and it didn't have adversely effect him (at least in a material way). Whether he develops a strong relationship with a Martinelli (who is already trying to demonstrate his loyalty with his comments today) is another thing all together. The other question is he ready to lead an entire team. I don't know if he understands other riders enough to motivate them to turn themselves inside out on his behalf. I think that's going to be a critical part of his development this year. Leadership, like respect, is earned not granted.

Frankly, I think JB will struggle this year period. I think he's trying to convince himself that he's in fact made the best move and can win with his team. He knows that while he may have one of the strongest overall teams, he's missing the trump card that save for 2006 and 2007 (really, I don't think he knew AC was ready), he's always had. AC is no Jan Ulrich. And I agree with the absence of the radios. It will affect Lance as well.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Exactly 3 other members were better placed, one of which was rumored to have been tipped off by Hincapie. Kloden and Levi were also caught out of that move. I think your bias is showing (Wiggins didn't make the move either or Cadel or anyone else you fancy, but I don't think you consider them inept), but it's your opinion, so thanks for explaining.

As for his struggle without JB, I don't see it happening (though I guess its possible). He just spent the last year basically isolated without JB and it didn't have adversely effect him (at least in a material way). Whether he develops a strong relationship with a Martinelli (who is already trying to demonstrate his loyalty with his comments today) is another thing all together. The other question is he ready to lead an entire team. I don't know if he understands other riders enough to motivate them to turn themselves inside out on his behalf. I think that's going to be a critical part of his development this year. Leadership, like respect, is earned not granted.

Frankly, I think JB will struggle this year period. I think he's trying to convince himself that he's in fact made the best move and can win with his team. He knows that while he may have one of the strongest overall teams, he's missing the trump card that save for 2006 and 2007 (really, I don't think he knew AC was ready), he's always had. AC is no Jan Ulrich. And I agree with the absence of the radios. It will affect Lance as well.

it will show who is the tatical genius.
Don't really get yourr first paragraph.

 

[Publicus]

it will show who is the tatical genius.
Don't really get yourr first paragraph.

Ah. Well Dimspace is arguing that AC getting caught in the wind split on Stage 3 is evidence of his ineptness, because 3 team members made the split but he didn't. I was just noting that at least one of those riders (Armstrong) probably had knowledge that Columbia was going to drop the hammer from Hincapie (when asked, Hincapie basically refused to answer). As for naming Wiggins and Evans, I was just noting that riders I think he fancies were also caught in the split but I also don't think I've ever heard him refer to them as inept. I'm big on consistencies. If having a hunger bonk/getting caught in a split is evidence of ineptness, then it should be for everyone.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Ah. Well Dimspace is arguing that AC getting caught in the wind split on Stage 3 is evidence of his ineptness, because 3 team members made the split but he didn't. I was just noting that at least one of those riders (Armstrong) probably had knowledge that Columbia was going to drop the hammer from Hincapie (when asked, Hincapie basically refused to answer). As for naming Wiggins and Evans, I was just noting that riders I think he fancies were also caught in the split but I also don't think I've ever heard him refer to them as inept. I'm big on consistencies. If having a hunger bonk/getting caught in a split is evidence of ineptness, then it should be for everyone.

Thanks, I agree.

 

[phillop]

Same question to you . . . how often will Astana will be required to work on the front? Until AC gets yellow, I'd say never. Let Radio Shack and Saxo Bank do the work . . . I expect Spartacus to be looking for yellow at the prologue and Radio Shack is going to want to control the race and set a high tempo to discourage attacks--and if it's not high enough, Saxo Bank will ramp it up for Andy's attack. In either case, it works to AC's advantage.

AC will be the favorite, but no one expects his team to do work the first two weeks of the TdF. It will only be the 3rd where they have to be ready. Frankly, I don't think Sastre has the legs to beat him. Certainly not the style of racing to do so.

Oh and if you are going to call someone's comment dumb, you should probably try to avoid misspelling one of the words in the process. Just a suggestion.

ok when the schlecks and all the other climbers that are trying to break contador start attacking him, who is going to have to close the gaps? will astana have any one strong enough to close the gaps for contador? or will they be strong enough to keep the pace high enough to stop the attacks?

 

[auscyclefan94]

ok when the schlecks and all the other climbers that are trying to break contador start attacking him, who is going to have to close the gaps? will astana have any one strong enough to close the gaps for contador? or will they be strong enough to keep the pace high enough to stop the attacks?

On the mountain stages, other teams have to attack Contador early as possible. If you wait to the final climb. He'll do what he did at Verbier.

 

[Galic Ho]

Contador will roll Schleck and Sastre in the pancake flat time trial. Lance won't top 5. Menchov won't be there. I think he's doing the Vuelta and Giro.
1.Contador
2. Evans
3.A Schleck
4.Gesink
5.Sastre
(If evans gets invite)

I agree with Menchov taking a break. He can only lose by wasting his time at the Tour. He is the biggest unknown for me. I'll wait till I hear his program. Better to try the Giro against Pellizotti or wait for the Vuelta which most will miss. Gesink will be the Rabo guy. He'll flop. Sorry to the Dutch, but I've yet to see him shine without something going terribly wrong later. Maybe Carlos will do the same as I suspect Dennis will.

Contador has this one in the bag. Andy Schleck should have second covered but if he can't drop the next bunch in the hills he will be vulnerable in the final ITT. Samu and Valverde anyone? They are awesome. I really think the Shack will stuff their tactics up. Lance, Lance, some more Lance. A really hard day and everyone helps Lance. Lance gets to the final climb and looses chunks of time. Poor Levi and Andreas loose out. Sound familiar? Teammates obliged to help the guy who virtually signs the pay cheque.

This is a climbers Tour. Samu is my dark horse and Valverde is too. Both proved something at the Vuelta. Samu gets stronger as the race goes on. Sastre isn't a bad tip either. Nor Evans. Basso, Nibali, Kreuziger. Hmmmnnnn. No for Liquigas. I just don't see it happening. If Basso comes out and makes this years performances look lame, everyone (bar the fanboys) will scream cheat. He can't risk it at the Tour. Image counts. Basically I'm putting my money on Spain for the Tour and the World Cup. Now that will fire them up.

Wiggy as I heard him referred to earlier. Sorry but I rate Vande Velde before Wiggy. But if the program works with the doctors he could improve. ITT, sorry Blackcat, the 40km flat ITT won't determine the winner. Maybe 3rd to 5th, but not the top 2. Contador will have a few minutes up his sleave again.

Cadel, Samu, Valverde, Sastre and even Franck Schleck have the potential to podium this Tour, maybe even displace Andy with a bit of luck. Here is my top 5 prediction for now, with some other thrown in. Note I will amend it once we get to May/June and injuries, form and doping convictions take their toll.

1. Contador
2. A. Schleck
3. Samu
4. Valverde
5. Evans
6. Sastre
7. Basso
8. F. Schleck
9. Hope rides again (this is generous)
10. Nibali, Vande Velde or Wiggy

Needless to say, if all the big names race this Tour will be ultra competitive. Making the top 20 will be an achievement. 2 through to 5 are interchangeable.

 

[Anonymous]

I give Wiggy...15th...just my guess...

 

[Galic Ho]

Brits have no reason to have Spainophobia. Aussies do. Spain has cost us,
- 2x Tour de France's
- Vuelta a Espana
- 2x Dauphine

Spain won all of those fair and square. Well as fair as cycling allows. You meant to say they cost Cadel fans. He doesn't ride for me or anyone I know. To keep this short, we've been over these details before. Derailments and problems mean little come the final day. They implicate that days racing, nothing more. If Cadel had not have had his incident in the Vuelta he'd still have come 3rd. Valverde and Sanchez would have attacked more.

 

[phillop]

On the mountain stages, other teams have to attack Contador early as possible. If you wait to the final climb. He'll do what he did at Verbier.

yes exactly, and there will be stages where theyve had the pace high from the start because lance and JB believe that he is weaker when the pace has been high for longer, and he'll be isolated early.
Also i dont expect him to be as strong and to suffer tactically with out JB.
Wich is why im not picking him to win next year.
But then again, if hes strong enough, when they start attacking him, he'll attack himself and put them all in their place.
Sorry if i miss spelt anything, english isn't really my strong point

 

[Anonymous]

or Cadel or anyone else you fancy, but I don't think you consider them inept),

ok.. now youve really upset me.. i take serious offence to you accusing me of liking cadel..

 

[auscyclefan94]

Spain won all of those fair and square. Well as fair as cycling allows. You meant to say they cost Cadel fans. He doesn't ride for me or anyone I know. To keep this short, we've been over these details before. Derailments and problems mean little come the final day. They implicate that days racing, nothing more. If Cadel had not have had his incident in the Vuelta he'd still have come 3rd. Valverde and Sanchez would have attacked more.

No, I'm just saying that the Poms shouldn't be against the spainish because they haven't podiumed against them continously like us aussies. I not going to start any arguements about which races cadel would of won with support because that would be just going way off topic and would be WWIII

 

[Publicus]

ok when the schlecks and all the other climbers that are trying to break contador start attacking him, who is going to have to close the gaps? will astana have any one strong enough to close the gaps for contador? or will they be strong enough to keep the pace high enough to stop the attacks?

Perhaps you've not watched AC and the Schlecks race before. Maybe you missed it. Saxo sets a high tempo to shell out as many of the domestiques and contenders as possible. Once the last Saxo guy is blown up, Frank or Andy, whoever is weakest or placed lower, makes the initial attack. They expect this attack to eventually be brought back. The other brother sits on the back of the small group waiting for a lull in the action. Then attacks from the back of the small group.

They continue this yo-yo attack until one of them escapes or the other contenders cannot respond.

See Verbier, Stage 16 (forget the name of the mountain), Col d' Romme, Mt. Ventoux at this year's TdF. Now since you are so smart, can you tell me what AC did during each of those stages? Which domestiques closed the gap for him? Who shepherded him through the mountains?

 

[Publicus]

ok.. now youve really upset me.. i take serious offence to you accusing me of liking cadel..

LOL. Sorry, I couldn't recall who your favorite riders were in the current peloton. No offence intended.

 

[Publicus]

yes exactly, and there will be stages where theyve had the pace high from the start because lance and JB believe that he is weaker when the pace has been high for longer, and he'll be isolated early.
Also i dont expect him to be as strong and to suffer tactically with out JB.
Wich is why im not picking him to win next year.
But then again, if hes strong enough, when they start attacking him, he'll attack himself and put them all in their place.
Sorry if i miss spelt anything, english isn't really my strong point

Where did you get this crap from? First of all setting the tempo too high, too soon is disaster for the team setting the tempo as well. Radio Shack won't want to do that principally because Lance doesn't have that next gear that . . . Alberto or Andy has. So that seems like a waste of energy. And let's not forget two important points: (1) he rode with those cats last year--he knows their tempo and (2) he was complaining that at times he wanted them to ride at a higher tempo and they wouldn't.

Why do you expect him not to be stronger next year? It's not like JB dictates his training program. Btw, what tactical genius did JB impart at this year's TdF? Serious question.

 

[Murray]

Btw, what tactical genius did JB impart at this year's TdF? Serious question.

That is a question that is very hard for us spectators to answer because we are not privy to the conversations between the DS and the riders. We don't know how much of what we see was of the rider's own initiative and how much came from the DS.

This goes for all riders, not just JB and AC.

 

[Clemson Cycling]

Btw, what tactical genius did JB impart at this year's TdF? Serious question.

He won the Tour easily and put an old man on the podium for starters

 

[Angliru]

Brits have no reason to have Spainophobia. Aussies do. Spain has cost us,
- 2x Tour de France's
- Vuelta a Espana
- 2x Dauphine

Do you or Evans ever take any responsibiliy for his failures??? For starters:
*The 2009 Dauphine was lost on Ventoux when he was dropped by Valverde giving up minutes before the finish.
*The 2009 Tour was a case of bad nerves, the flu, mental issues or any other number of reasons that have been tossed about. The Spaniards had little to do with it.
*I've always heard that the reason Evans lost the 2008 Tour was because of Silence-Lotto's lack of support, not because of any Spanish conspiracy.
*The 2009 Vuelta was simply a result of karma. After all the years of whining and publicly blaming his lack of Tour/grand tour success on his teammates it was bound to come back and bite him on his a$$ chin.

By the way you can thank the Spaniards for the WC win since their and the Italians inability to work cohesively with all the talent they brought opened the door for Evans to stumble off the front, look around, notice that he had a gap and suddenly ride like he'd stolen the bike he was on to victory.

This is me lightening up by the way.