I expect Wiggins to suffer from "that tricky second album". I can't see him replicate that ride on Mt Ventoux if he isn't riding on a determined euphoric high for that something very special that he never thought he'd be riding for in 2009, but just to maintain 7th or 8th place.
To be honest, I have him 8th or worse, and if you pin me down, I'll go for 10+.
1) the overall field is stronger and more competitive
2) the mountain stages will be (ought to be) far more lively than this year's neutered lot
3) no TTT
4) few TT kms
5) no riding on "heck, I can do this amazing feat!" juice, but "I have to match that performance, now with expectations from a delirious home crowd" to boot.
6) tipped-off competition that Wiggins can perform well above 2008 expectations
On the plus side
1) riding in the "national" strip
2) preparation + team support with this in mind from the outset
3) one year fitter and wiser (which only helps him against 1 of the riders who was ahead of him)
I don't expect this year's Tour de France to be anything like last year's TdF. If it is, with the new guard on the up meeting the old guard on the way down, and Contador on a weak-ish team, without a TTT, little TT kms, the mountains in a more prominent spot, then de TdF is fundamentally broken somewhere, and it will officially be my #3 one, the bemusing break between the spring classics, the Giro and the Vuelta. I suspect it already is, but it would be really officially so, with nobs on.
In 2009, with the TTT under his belt, Wiggins got where he got because he was climbing with only a depleted handful of the normal GT best, most of who were on 1 team (in two halves, with matters settled early, to the frustration of the weaker rider). None of these riders were really attacking each other at all. And when the fireworks were scheduled, we were watching a neutralised fight for 3rd up, which quickly became a fight for 4th, when Lance proved able to match or better Wiggins. What the entire Tour boiled down to was almost a one-stage fight for the first vulnerable rider in GT: his spot. With the race pace being set to suit the guy who came behind Wiggins in the GT. A fight he, somehow, just won. Clinging on for dear life. On what I think will be the race of his life, and one he can rightly be proud of.
I expect Contador to do what he did in the Pyrenees this year (halfway up the hill, not at the end), get antsy himslef after a few jabs by others, and decide to take this early climb, see who can follow him, and plant his marker. I think he will be too nervous not to. I expect him to do that more than once, and I would not be surprised if he overdid it somewhere and pays a price on one of the climbs this year, against 1 key rider, probably Andy. If he doesn't bomb somewhere, we'll all be watching a fight for scraps again.
I hear a lot of people expecting far more attacks, an much earlier, on Contador. What I can't see is why any of the other riders can afford to let the gap appear either. That "let Contador do it" scenario only materialises if the other riders are behind in GC on the escapee, and their only remaining hope is to capitalize on Contador's effort.
Contador can make up the gap to anyone on another ride, at least that's how most of them will read it, I think. I can't think of any other GT contenders who can be confident that he can do the same, with the possible exception of Andy.
I'd say, if anything, it is actually only Contador who can really afford to let an escape from a GT contender succeed. If I had his legs, on the first attack against me, and I felt they were looking at me, I'd sit back look up at the rest, and say, "OK, I'm not gonna, now what? Are you that confident you can afford it"?
I suspect the sharp end will be a lot sharper this year, with more GT contenders who need to do "something" in the mountains. And whoever is able to follow most and put in a good "limit the damage" ride on the stage where they are not, will be at the front.
To be frank, I think that Wiggins ended up fourth, because being part of that "limit the damage" group throughout, was actually enough to be fighting for 3rd up. This year that will mean that you end up much further down the field, as there will be better climbers who will match that, but also be away with the sharp end on at least one day, if not more.
I don't have Wiggins down as someone who can do that too. He'll have to be one class better than he was in 09. And sorry Dim, I just can't see where that would come from (this year?). In a 2010 field where far more riders would have to be disappoint us if they were not up to that task. Wiggins would have to surprise. Again.
Even if he surprised, all he would do is finding himself actuallyride for the same spot. Riding for fourth gave him that something special for the key ride. Will just be in a UK jersey be enough to replicate that special something feeling?
I think the moment he feels that the second time round is much harder, he'll cave on at least one occasion, and won't recover. And slip to a spot that we would think of as a decent accomplishment. If he hadn't gone ahead and put in an amazing #4 ride.
If the field I expect shows up, than I think he would do well to come in in the top 10, barring accidents. So given that he has the millstone of last year around his neck, I'm going for just outside.
Then with the old guard truly gone, and the new guard still gaining strength around him, but with a stronger team, and lower expectations, 2011 will be the year he might match something akin to 2009. And if he actually does it, I'd be impressed.
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