2010 TDF, let's see: from the PT teams I think the latest incarnation of Fuji-Servetto will not be invited nor should Milram (let's face it, they suck). I believe that Astana's participation is also in peril (after all, Vino is back!) but if they hold on to Contador maybe the'll be there. The Retirement Shack is a shoe in (Lance brings big bucks) as is Sky.
So, 3 out, 2 in. I think both BBox and Cofidis will be invited, and also Vacansoleil. That leaves 2 spots open. One is for Cervelo, and the other is a toss out between Skil and BMC. I would personally like to see Ceramica Flamina get invited, having Ricco back isn't as bad as having for instance teams with Valverde or AC winning Grand Tours.