Will Contador Be Beatable?

[cromagnon]

Now AC has severed ties with Bruyneel, will he be beatable? I always got the sense some riders seemed extremely *ahem* motivated when riding for Bruyneel (i.e. made of titanium and never cracking).

I am not a "cancer lover" I try to keep an open mind but if AC "does a Cunego" at his new team (i.e. ride like an amateur imposter that hit the real Contador over the head and tied him up in a broom closet before the race - at every race until retirement), I would start drawing conclusions.

 

[Kerbdog]

It will make next years Tour all the more watchable. Yes it would answer a lot of questions.

 

[quarterpounder]

He certainly won't beat Bruyneels team, unless there is a problem like in 2006.

 

[nihoro]

Now AC has severed ties with Bruyneel, will he be beatable? I always got the sense some riders seemed extremely *ahem* motivated when riding for Bruyneel (i.e. made of titanium and never cracking).

I am not a "cancer lover" I try to keep an open mind but if AC "does a Cunego" at his new team (i.e. ride like an amateur imposter that hit the real Contador over the head and tied him up in a broom closet before the race - at every race until retirement), I would start drawing conclusions.

So because Cunego can't win a Grand Tour again, he's an "amateur imposter"? I don't want to take this off-topic, but you make it sound like Cunego once had the potential to be a Top grand tour contender. Which is just false.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Not by LA, under any circumstances.
So, it won't matter to most.

 

[workingclasshero]

So because Cunego can't win a Grand Tour again, he's an "amateur imposter"? I don't want to take this off-topic, but you make it sound like Cunego once had the potential to be a Top grand tour contender. Which is just false.

jesus h. christ

 

[nihoro]

jesus h. christ

Seriously? And yes I know he won the Giro. Do you happen to remember the way he did it, my good sir?

 

[Cerberus]

Seriously? And yes I know he won the Giro. Do you happen to remember the way he did it, my good sir?

I don't. Was it an Óscar Pereiro situation?

 

[Danilot]

Now AC has severed ties with Bruyneel, will he be beatable? I always got the sense some riders seemed extremely *ahem* motivated when riding for Bruyneel (i.e. made of titanium and never cracking).

I am not a "cancer lover" I try to keep an open mind but if AC "does a Cunego" at his new team (i.e. ride like an amateur imposter that hit the real Contador over the head and tied him up in a broom closet before the race - at every race until retirement), I would start drawing conclusions.

If Contador is unbeatable, what was Rasmussen then? He consistently beat Contador in the mountains. Was he Merckx reincarnated or something?

 

[Berzin]

So because Cunego can't win a Grand Tour again, he's an "amateur imposter"? I don't want to take this off-topic, but you make it sound like Cunego once had the potential to be a Top grand tour contender. Which is just false.

Cunego was tipped for Tour de France greatness because of his physiology (a supposedly naturally high hematocrit level that hovered around 53% for which he had a UCI medical exemption) and the fact that he left his teammate Simoni in the dust in the 2004 Giro after Simoni had won the Giro the year before in pretty convincing fashion.

If you watched the race, Simoni couldn't hold Cunego's wheel in the mountains. That was Cunego's greatest strength, his climbing ability. His weakness in the time trials was something that he was working on, but it went downhill for him as a grand tour contender when he mysteriously switched coaches and got sick from Epstein-Barr virus.

The next year Cungo lost 6 minutes in the very first mountain stage in the Dolomites of the 2005 Giro, and ever since then he has been unable to regain that magical form he had in the mountains in any grand tour.

Never again did he ride with the front runners in the high mountains as a contender. But during his breakout year when he won the Giro, all of the press were touting him as the next great Italian stage race rider.

 

[Publicus]

True, and what great battles they were. However I knew Rasmussen would never beat Contador again after that Tour since AC was only 24 and still had room to improve. That's why it was all the more disappointing that Rusmussen's team pulled the plug on him.

As for the wider question. Yes it's hard to see anyone beating Contador next year, however given that he already made the big improving that GC guys make once in their career, he won't likely improve much more at 27, which may give others hope. If someone could get closer to him in the GC, the pressure could crack him if he absolutely has to attack on certain climbs. This year he was really comfortable because he knew that even if his attacks failed he was still in the winning position. If Schleck, Armstrong or Wiggins - people that will probably see greater improvement in their performances than Contador next year - can get closer, they're in with a chance. Your money would still have to be on Contador to hold them off though.

Agree with Schleck and maybe Wiggins having room for improvement, but I'm not buying Armstrong. He'll be 38 very soon, and by next year's TdF will be licking 39. So far the team he's constructed has exactly ZERO riders that can mark AC or Schleck (and that includes him). He'll certainly still have more experience than either AC or Schleck, but I don't see him making a greater improvement than AC. Of course, that's just my opinion...

 

[Anonymous]

i think AC's biggest problem is, in my opinion, tactically inept.. Be certainly doesnt have the race savvy that LA has, and i dont even think he understands racing as well as the schlecks, sastre and others.he knows one thing and he learnt that at the vinokourov school of cycling.. attack..

I dont think there is too much argument that JB and Riise and probably the two best DS's in the pelaton as far as tactics go (although some will disagree), without JB i think tactically others will work out how to beat him..

However, I also think, that whatever people things of Astanas Medical "program", the spanish are far worse, once back safely in their clutches He will have the best of everything and the protection of spanish authorities..

 

[Mellow Velo]

I agree. Armstrong will deteriorate with age, just like the ever willing, but fading Gilberto Simoni.
He retains both the motivation and determination, but physically, he can no longer cut it, with the younger Giro boys.
No amount of "medical assistance", can stop the march of time.
Contador arriving at his peak.
Young guns, Schleck, Kreuziger and Nibali, a year closer to their best.
Gesink and maybe young Fuglsang also starting to feature.

Too much for LA and Levi's aging legs. He will do well to finish in the bottom half of the top ten.

 

[cromagnon]

i think AC's biggest problem is, in my opinion, tactically inept.. Be certainly doesnt have the race savvy that LA has

You['ve been listening to Liggett too long, I know when someone repeats something often enough you start to believe it. 4 GT's by 26 one can only pray he continues to be the same tactically inept failure he's been so far. I've not met too many intellectually deficient mediterraneans, the benefits of some semitic heritage I guess.

One only needs to watch videos of Lance in the Bruyneel years to see the most extreme case of performance enhancement in possibly the history of human competition (with the exception of the mythical Achilles being made almost invulnerable by the gods, even he cracked eventually). A rider with 2 classic wins, a TDF stage and a World Roadrace win. Lets say someone like Ballan, suddenly dominating.

Astana team timetrial. Every team timetrial involving a Bruyneel team. USPS destroying the peloton upteen times. Now this Alberto kid that can climb and TT like Lance used to also under Bruyneel's wing. No one enhances performance like Bruyneel and I wonder what now for Alberto. Hence the thread title - will he be beatable? If in his new team with a new DS, if he starts losing 2 minutes to Cancellara in ITT's and doesn't sprint up L'Alpe D'Huez like it's flat people will be asking questions and drawing their own conclusions.

 

[blackcat]

Contador will have his own doctor and source. No concern.

This year he surely had some blood bags as his own option, in case the Bruyneel source wanted to pour it down the drain.

The Bruyneel medical program must have declining returns. A good medical program will neutralise other riders like Andy Schleck. The only possible threat is losing too much time in a TTT. But with Vino, Kash, and some other strongmen, he can probably limit it to two minutes.

 

[elapid]

i think AC's biggest problem is, in my opinion, tactically inept.. Be certainly doesnt have the race savvy that LA has, and i dont even think he understands racing as well as the schlecks, sastre and others.he knows one thing and he learnt that at the vinokourov school of cycling.. attack..

I dont think there is too much argument that JB and Riise and probably the two best DS's in the pelaton as far as tactics go (although some will disagree), without JB i think tactically others will work out how to beat him..

I would not go as far as to say AC is tactically inept, but he does not have the tactical savvy of some other riders. I remember the 2007 TdF where he lost a few seconds to Evans in a stage just before the final TT because of a split in the bunch as they sprinted for the finish line. Then there was Paris-Nice and the TdF this year where tactical mistakes were made which resulted in AC losing Paris-Nice and up to 40 seconds in the TdF. Not smart, but he does have the talent in his legs/lungs to overcome these deficiencies.

Its kind of like me with mountain biking. I am not a very technical rider and I make my share of mistakes, but dual suspension and speed seem to get me through most of my blunders. I am not inept, but nor am I good.

 

[Señor_Contador]

[...]I've not met too many intellectually deficient mediterraneans, the benefits of some semitic heritage I guess.[...]

That's a little... "saucy" wouldn't you think?

 

[Galic Ho]

Agree with Schleck and maybe Wiggins having room for improvement, but I'm not buying Armstrong. He'll be 38 very soon, and by next year's TdF will be licking 39. So far the team he's constructed has exactly ZERO riders that can mark AC or Schleck (and that includes him). He'll certainly still have more experience than either AC or Schleck, but I don't see him making a greater improvement than AC. Of course, that's just my opinion...

Good points. BPC is failing to use his head again. Firstly calling football, soccer yesterday. Not good for someone from the UK. Then declaring a 37 and 29 year old can improve but the 26 year old multiple tour winner cannot. There is a word for that sort of logic. Lunacy.

Contador has nothing to concern himself with. I thought he was holding back in the mountains, especially on Mt. Ventoux. Disagree with him going up Alpe d'Huez as if its flat, or anyone for that matter. Then again I have yet to see him climb the Alpe. Armstrong can certainly kiss his sub or near 40 minute times on the Alpe goodbye. He isn't going to improve by any significant margin. He'll be lucky to top 5 next year. Contador will be fine in the TTT. If he ends up at Caisse d'Epargne (I'm hedging all bets on this) he will have no problems. Adding AC they will probably win the TTT. Even if he stays @ Astana there will be no major damage done.

Word to the wary. To beat AC, have your team set a devastating pace at the base of a climb, throw in a few solo attacks out the front and then personally attack near the summit. Don't stop! Try and nail the descent. It's your best chance, even then this might not work. Alternatively give Rasmussen a call and ask him what he did in 2007.

 

[richwagmn]

You['ve been listening to Liggett too long, I know when someone repeats something often enough you start to believe it. 4 GT's by 26 one can only pray he continues to be the same tactically inept failure he's been so far.

+1. Complete load of crap. As if cycling requires some great mental capacity.

 

[Señor_Contador]

Now AC has severed ties with Bruyneel, will he be beatable? I always got the sense some riders seemed extremely *ahem* motivated when riding for Bruyneel (i.e. made of titanium and never cracking).

I am not a "cancer lover" I try to keep an open mind but if AC "does a Cunego" at his new team (i.e. ride like an amateur imposter that hit the real Contador over the head and tied him up in a broom closet before the race - at every race until retirement), I would start drawing conclusions.

I do not see anyone out there beating Contador at the Tour for a long time.

He's found the sweet spot.

Alberto Contador = Tour de France for, at least, another 5 years.

I just hope he gives the Vuelta and the Giro another one or two cracks before he decides to retire.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Unfortunately the host of the video of Contador bonking has removed it so the link no longer works. Bummer.

Here try this link if you want to see a rider bonk.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Yeah, that's old news. But the point is, everyone is talking like Contador is totally unbeatable, when that incident of him bonking was only this year. It gives us some hope to hold onto, however small.

Oh, ok so you are looking for incidences that have nothing to do with the OP about Contador being beatable because he moves away from Bruyneel.

Here is one from this year so. Enjoy.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

What's the OP? Your link doesn't work. I suspect its Wiggins dropping Armstrong...

OP = Opening Post You can try the link now.

I hope I am getting the hang of your theory on how to beat Contador now.

 

[Señor_Contador]

[...]I don't think he likely will be, but people get a bit carried away with how comfortable he looked this year in my view.[...]

Considering the pressure he was under in his own team... what Alberto did is nothing short of un-friggin-believable.

The fact that people here insinuate some sort of weakness in his pedaling style when he stands up on the pedals, when in reality his opponents shít bricks every time the incline is > 8% and he starts "dancing" on them, is testament to how fanatic some people can be.

The reality is that, and at first glance, this was Alberto's easiest wins, and if LA and his bítches, along with the rest of the serious contenders, were not able to beat him in any way... the only was I see Alberto losing to anyone is if he falls and breaks something.

He dicho.

 

[Jonathan]

When the world's best climber places second in the opening TT and has won two GTs the previous year, you know he is unbeatable. As this was the situation with Contador, we knew he was going to win from the first day of the Tour. The most interesting event of the Tour was that Armstrong resisted the natural hierarchy and tried to play a tactical game to become the leader, hoping he'd have enough strength to beat Andy Schleck. This didn't work because he just missed the yellow jersey by a few seconds and because Contador was simply too dominant.

There is no reason to believe Contador will be less powerful next year. He is young and can improve or maintain his current level. His current level is more than sufficient to win the Tour next year. Even if Armstrong improves (I expect he will, but in a small degree) he'll find it difficult to reach the podium. Armstrong's TT abilities and climbing is just not good enough; his final GT spot did not accurately reflect his ability in the two most important disciplines in the Tour.

In all likelihood, Contador will be unbeatable. He was the biggest favorite this year from day one and it is expected he will be again next year.