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Will Contador Be Beatable?

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Jul 13, 2009
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BanProCycling said:
Yeah, that's old news. But the point is, everyone is talking like Contador is totally unbeatable, when that incident of him bonking was only this year. It gives us some hope to hold onto, however small.

You should make up your mind. Not so long ago you were claiming that Contador's yellow jersey was in the pocket (or a similar expression) on the way to Le Grand-Bornand, which could only have been the case if Contador was unbeatable. Do you mean that at that point Bruyneel had some precognition that Contador could never, never bonk? Not even on the Ventoux? Then what is the point of claiming that Contador bonked?

If there was a danger of Contador bonking, then attacking Andy Schleck made sense, because he'd attacked successfully before and indeed could not assume that the yellow jersey was completely safe. If the yellow jersey was completely safe and the race had already been won by Contador at that point, then he must have been a more than huge favorite; in other words, he must have know he couldn't bonk. You apparently assume the latter, although in this thread you say something different. That just doesn't fit.

In fact, you imply that others are talking like 'Contador is totally unbeatable', but although I saw him as the likely winner from day one, I wouldn't say the yellow jersey was in the pocket before the end of stage 17 already. Among the people claiming Contador was unbeatable during the Tour, you seem to be king.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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Of course Contador is beatable. Everyone is. Lots of things beyond his control could come into play: crashes (whether he crashes or a number of his teammates do) being a big one.

So much of a GT is about the team and the support he'll get. If he gets a decent team around him, he'll challenge and either win or be on the podium. He can't win a GT just by himself. No matter what anyone says.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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Jonathan said:
Still, Contador can apparently win with less support than would be expected.

He still had his team up front riding tempo and keeping him out of trouble. Was that a consequence of working for Lance? Maybe, but same result as far as that goes.

On the road, I think he got the support. Once each stage was done? Probably not so much.
 
Jonathan said:
You should make up your mind. Not so long ago you were claiming that Contador's yellow jersey was in the pocket (or a similar expression) on the way to Le Grand-Bornand, which could only have been the case if Contador was unbeatable. Do you mean that at that point Bruyneel had some precognition that Contador could never, never bonk? Not even on the Ventoux? Then what is the point of claiming that Contador bonked?

If there was a danger of Contador bonking, then attacking Andy Schleck made sense, because he'd attacked successfully before and indeed could not assume that the yellow jersey was completely safe. If the yellow jersey was completely safe and the race had already been won by Contador at that point, then he must have been a more than huge favorite; in other words, he must have know he couldn't bonk. You apparently assume the latter, although in this thread you say something different. That just doesn't fit.

In fact, you imply that others are talking like 'Contador is totally unbeatable', but although I saw him as the likely winner from day one, I wouldn't say the yellow jersey was in the pocket before the end of stage 17 already. Among the people claiming Contador was unbeatable during the Tour, you seem to be king.

I'm with you up until the highlighted portion. He was definitely beatable, but after he crushed the field on Verbier, it was pretty clear he was in the driver's seat.

If he can land with Garmin or Caisse, then he's my odds on favorite to win whatever race he decides to enter and contest for the overall victory. Hell, if Astana keeps most of its core (Zubeldia, Navarro, Hernandez, JB, and Popo) and adds a couple of other warm bodies, he's my favorite for the TdF next year as well. He won't be a strong a favorite as he would be with Garmin or Caisse, but I still don't see anyone who can hang with him when he's on form.
 
Publicus said:
Hell, if Astana keeps most of its core (Zubeldia, Navarro, Hernandez, JB, and Popo) and adds a couple of other warm bodies, he's my favorite for the TdF next year as well. He won't be a strong a favorite as he would be with Garmin or Caisse, but I still don't see anyone who can hang with him when he's on form.

If Astana's budget stays relatively the same then the team has a lot of money to replace the riders who are leaving. If Contador is not leaving then he should be working with management to purchase the riders he needs.
 
Jul 13, 2009
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Publicus said:
I'm with you up until the highlighted portion. He was definitely beatable, but after he crushed the field on Verbier, it was pretty clear he was in the driver's seat.

If he can land with Garmin or Caisse, then he's my odds on favorite to win whatever race he decides to enter and contest for the overall victory. Hell, if Astana keeps most of its core (Zubeldia, Navarro, Hernandez, JB, and Popo) and adds a couple of other warm bodies, he's my favorite for the TdF next year as well. He won't be a strong a favorite as he would be with Garmin or Caisse, but I still don't see anyone who can hang with him when he's on form.
Neither do I, but I don't buy BPC's wiffle-waffling between a rider who is guaranteed to win the Tour (there is no such thing) and a liability who can bonk at any day (which doesn't describe Contador).

Contador was clearly the strongest in the race - I confirmed this in an earlier post this same thread - and the obvious favorite. But don't bet your mortgage on it; odd things happen in cycling. I am convinced Bruyneel and his team never felt they could relax and concentrate on other matters because the yellow jersey was theirs. Until the finish on the Ventoux, that is.

Contador will almost certainly be the strongest next year when the Tour starts. The fact that he had a bad day during Paris-Nice once doesn't change that; he can handle a GT nicely. 'Unbeatable' doesn't exist, the best predictions are sane evaluations of relative strengths. That's where he comes on top.
 
Jonathan said:
Neither do I, but I don't buy BPC's wiffle-waffling between a rider who is guaranteed to win the Tour (there is no such thing) and a liability who can bonk at any day (which doesn't describe Contador).

Contador was clearly the strongest in the race - I confirmed this in an earlier post this same thread - and the obvious favorite. But don't bet your mortgage on it; odd things happen in cycling. I am convinced Bruyneel and his team never felt they could relax and concentrate on other matters because the yellow jersey was theirs. Until the finish on the Ventoux, that is.

Contador will almost certainly be the strongest next year when the Tour starts. The fact that he had a bad day during Paris-Nice once doesn't change that; he can handle a GT nicely. 'Unbeatable' doesn't exist, the best predictions are sane evaluations of relative strengths. That's where he comes on top.

Agree. Frankly his bonking at Paris-Nice told me a lot about his character (how he responded to the incident).
 

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