Will Joaquim "Purito" Rodriguez retain the MR to the end?

[greenedge]

ofcourse gilbert and evens were stronger during those 2 years, but my point is that purito is getting stronger and he beats them now, like valverde did most of the time with some relative ease, but without valverde's talent.

Evans has skipped both the previous 2 Ardennes so you can't say with certainty he would always beat Evans ( though recently he does ).

 

[webvan]

I was surprised by his attack on Sunday, he seemed to be fading away, as he always does, on Saturday...I'm not sure he can keep up on the endless 20k climbs though.

As a side note I wonder whether the Giro percentage maps are correct, they were all flying up the mountain in the 8% grades on Sunday when the TOC riders all seemed glued to the road in the sun going up the 8% Baldy...

 

[hrotha]

I don't think he always fades away. He certainly didn't fade away in last year's Giro, where he was stronger than ever towards the end. He tends to have a bad day, mmyeah, but you're underestimating him if you think he's not a threat for the overall.

 

[Flamin]

He did to Hesjedal.

I think JROD has a big chance but will really need to be on the top of his game to combat Basso, Scarponi and Hesjedal.

I meant he wasn't dropped from the main group of gc guys (basso, scarponi,..). that's a good sign for him on such climb. and Hesjedal isn't his biggest rival, Basso and Scarponi are.

 

[cineteq]

N

I'm afraid I'm just a bit more observant than you while watching the races. OK, what is your counter-evidence in favor of Rodriguez?

Your observation is nothing better than those of popular cycling magazines: basso and scarponi favorites for the Giro.

 

[airstream]

Your observation is nothing better than those of popular cycling magazines: basso and scarponi favorites for the Giro.

I was reasoning my position in details [the other forum member called me for that a special troll or so] and am gladly ready to read any disagreement and keep discussing. Do you have any?

Thanks for you lined up a quintessence for my thoughts, as I honestly didn't know that Basso and Scarponi are the Giro favorites.

 

[usedtobefast]

Does majik 8 ball mind to elaborate why not?

all it said was no. no elaboration. it is the majik 8 ball.
if i was to speculate i would go with past history.

 

[Caruut]

Actually his being all over these first weeks of the Giro is a bit worrying. Sort of like Vino and Evans in 2010. He may be hedging against difficulties in the third week. At least someone has been doing something these stages, though.

He's never going to take time on Basso in the long climbs or the TTs, so he's going to look to take time on the shorter, steeper climbs whether he's feeling weak or strong. It's different for Evans - he would expect to try and hang in on the mountains and then beat Basso on the TT, so him using the hills a lot is a bit odd, but Purito is going to use the hills whatever.

 

[karlboss]

I was surprised by his attack on Sunday, he seemed to be fading away, as he always does, on Saturday...I'm not sure he can keep up on the endless 20k climbs though.

As a side note I wonder whether the Giro percentage maps are correct, they were all flying up the mountain in the 8% grades on Sunday when the TOC riders all seemed glued to the road in the sun going up the 8% Baldy...

Baldy is average 7% with maximums of 23%

Cervina is 5.1% maximum of 12%

and to lecco is more regular having a maximum barely higher than it's 6.6% average.

 

[greenedge]

I meant he wasn't dropped from the main group of gc guys (basso, scarponi,..). that's a good sign for him on such climb. and Hesjedal isn't his biggest rival, Basso and Scarponi are.

Thx sry for being quick.

Hesjedal cannot be discounted with the final ITT in mind.

 

[karlboss]

Thx sry for being quick.

Hesjedal cannot be discounted with the final ITT in mind.

I'm not convinced by hesjedal's TT
The only TT performance of note was the tour in 2010, 3:37 into rodriguez on a windy day over 52km. That's 2:10 over 32km and remember this is hesjedal at his best and rodriguez at his worst.

EDIT: odds on purito, equal fav with basso around 2:1

 

[Potomac]

I think teams can put time into J Rod only if they up the pace on those long long long grinding climbs and drop him. If they wait keep too slow a pace and he survives up front then J Rod will put time into them in the last 1 or 2 km.

So far the grinding out by liquigas has seen relatively large groups survive a long way up the climbs. I single out Liquigas because I believe Smyzd and Basso have the ability to grind faster than they have been doing. I don't know if any other team has the manpower.

 

[gustienordic]

Friday and Saturday will see

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I don't know if any other team has the manpower.

They don't. Both Lampre and Garmin have domestiques hanging around quite late on, but by and large those guys are hanging in there rather than looking capable of dropping anyone else. Pozzovivo's support team certainly aren't strong enough, and even if they were, they'd be working against Domenico as much as Rodriguez.

Liguigas are going to continue to be the tempo train, and personally I'm hating them for it.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I am still sceptic for JRod victory chances with the tt and Stelvio in mind, nut podium looks very likely at the moment!

Nicely done so far JRod!

 

[webvan]

Another good showing today, too bad Pozzo didn't gun it a bit earlier in the climb because that would have likely made Scarponi crack. Jrod will have to do something about Hesjedal at some point...

 

[Ripper]

I meant he wasn't dropped from the main group of gc guys (basso, scarponi,..). that's a good sign for him on such climb. and Hesjedal isn't his biggest rival, Basso and Scarponi are.

I'd say all 3 are. If JR cannot put solid time into Hesjedal then he is not going to win.

On that note, I truly hope Hesjedal can up the ante further for Friday and Saturday

 

[rghysens]

If he doesn't take another 1'30 on Hesjedal on the last two mountain stages, he won't win.
Basso and Scarponi are out of contention for final victory. Can't see any of them taking more than 1'20'' on Rodriguez, not even with the tt on sunday.

 

[Random Direction]

I'll argue that if Szymd didn't have his mechanical today, that Basso would have had a grind train for another 3 km up the Passo Giao. This would likely have dropped two to three more of the leading 6 off before the top. Clearly Uran was just on his edge through the latter half of the climb. Scarponi wasn't looking too hot for quite a while (was looking at Hesjedal with a WTF expression). I'd say that the other rider who was on the edge from time to time was Rodriguez.

Extend this on to Friday and Saturday, giving Szymd a bike that continues to work and then it is Basso and Hesjedal grinding, with Pozzo sprinting at the top. Everything could depend on the day though. The steeper grades will favour some of the pocket rockets though.

This of course, will be wrong and Rujano will do a 50km break with Nieve, to be caught by the Team Sky TTT setting up Mark Cavemiazov for an uphill mountain sprint win over Ferrari, who is disqualified for dangerous downhill cornering.

 

[SafeBet]

I know I might sound dreary, but Szmyd didn't have a mechanical.
He had no legs and cramped.

He could recovery for next stages, but it's not like last year he was much better than this.

 

[Random Direction]

A couple of articles indicated mechanical (though they could of course be wrong). I'd find them to reference, but prefer to head to sleep. Luckily I have to miss tomorrow's stage.

 

[jens_attacks]

of course if it would have been a mechanical,he could get back in no time.basso was looking behind to know if to wait or not.szmyd cracked,not good signs for pampeago and stelvio

 

[SafeBet]

Purtroppo sulla salita finale mi è venuto a mancare per crampi Szmyd, il mio gregario più forte - ha precisato Basso, apparso comunque di ottimo umore -. Non è andata esattamente come speravo, ma è stato soltanto il primo round.

http://www3.lastampa.it/sport/sezioni/giroditalia/2012/articolo/lstp/455425/

 

[webvan]

Doesn't everyone hate it when some dude posts something in a foreign language without a translation, I know I do and would never do it myself...anyway, Google thinks it means this :

Unfortunately on the final climb I failed to Szmyd cramps, my wingman stronger - Low stated, however, appeared in good spirits -. It did not go exactly as I hoped, but it was only the first round.

 

[SafeBet]

Doesn't everyone hate it when some dude posts something in a foreign language without a translation, I know I do and would never do it myself...anyway, Google thinks it means this :

Sorry I didn't translate, but I've been repeating this since yesterday afternoon, so I didn't think it was necessary.

Anyway, translation: Unfortunately Szmyd, my best domestique, couldn't be there on the final climb because of cramps - said Basso, who looked happy anyway - It didn't go exactly as I wished, but it was just the first round.