Will Nibali ever win the Tour?

[Miburo]

The Tour makes very high TT requirements traditionally. Either one is a genial climber or a brilliant all-rounde who can limit his mountain losses in TT. Nibali doesn't look like any of these guys so far.

That's true, nibali is neither but that doesn't mean van garderen is better.

He couldn't even follow the sky train, his climbing abilities are still a question. It depends on how good he'll become at it the next years.

 

[Parrulo]

The Tour makes very high TT requirements traditionally. Either one is a genial climber or a brilliant all-rounde who can limit his mountain losses in TT. Nibali doesn't look like any of these guys so far.

traditionally the tour has mountains to balance the route, like it did in 07 and 08 which were the last 2 times the route had over 100k of itt.

 

[Miburo]

traditionally the tour has mountains to balance the route, like it did in 07 and 08 which were the last 2 times the route had over 100k of itt.

the tour of '08 had over 100 km ITT?

edit: looked it up, it had 82 km ITT

 

[Parrulo]

i thought the first itt was longer but it also didn't have a prologue which if it had would pit at around 90k itt. that isn't far from the 100k mark

 

[Red Rick]

Probably not, but that doesn't effect his awesomeness

 

[Netserk]

Just to give an overview:

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

It all depends on how the race unfods really. With a couple of hard dowhill finishes, a not to long final tt and som lbl like stages and not to hard mtfs, sure he can win with a strong enough team (Astana 09 strong)

 

[Netserk]

It all depends on how the race unfods really. With a couple of hard dowhill finishes, a not to long final tt and som lbl like stages and not to hard mtfs, sure he can win with a strong enough team (Astana 09 strong)

He can do well on hard mtfs, as long as there isn't many back-to-back mountain stages.

 

[airstream]

Strange chart. In 2008 they handle Super Besse like a MTF, unlike 2011. Apparently, Tour always had 3-4 MTF's but 2002.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

He can do well on hard mtfs, as long as there isn't many back-to-back mountain stages.

He can do well on a hard mountain stage indeed. Is it a follow AC, Froome, and Andy well, or a beat VDB2 well? i a not so sure

 

[airstream]

He can do well on hard mtfs, as long as there isn't many back-to-back mountain stages.

He can not keep up with the best of the best climbers when a real battle starts. I'm not saying it is impossible. That is just something we haven't seen thus far.

 

[Netserk]

He can do well on a hard mountain stage indeed. Is it a follow AC, Froome, and Andy well, or a beat VDB2 well? i a not so sure

I would say he did more than just 'beating-VDB2-well' on Zonc in '11

 

[theyoungest]

Gesink did 5th but never was one of the three bests riders in his terrain. And TVG yes. We saw it in Besançon, the best gt rider in the TT only after Wiggins and Froome.

Tejay lost 3 minutes on La Planche des Belles Filles. He finished 46th! A bad day like that is usually unforgivable, however he had the luck of 100 k of time trialing and no particularly good time trialists other than Wiggo and Froomey.

Gesink actually was one of the three best climbers on Tourmalet. He pulled for almost the entire climb, unfortunately he got swamped in the final k.

 

[airstream]

That's true, nibali is neither but that doesn't mean van garderen is better.

He couldn't even follow the sky train, his climbing abilities are still a question. It depends on how good he'll become at it the next years.

He is young and he made enourmous step forward in comparison to how he had climbed before. And yet unlike Nibali his racer pedigree is obviously for the Tour.

Even? Ah, sorry, I always forget that the train is not a level for you.

 

[Miburo]

He is young and he made enourmous step forward in comparison to how he had climbed before. And yet unlike Nibali his racer pedigree is obviously for the Tour.

Even? Ah, sorry, I always forget that the train is not a level for you.

Kreuziger also had great progression a few years ago, suddenly it can stop.

We'll see if he confirm/improve it.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Tejay lost 3 minutes on La Planche des Belles Filles. He finished 46th! A bad day like that is usually unforgivable, however he had the luck of 100 k of time trialing and no particularly good time trialists other than Wiggo and Froomey.

Gesink actually was one of the three best climbers on Tourmalet. He pulled for almost the entire climb, unfortunately he got swamped in the final k.

PLEASE. So where were the other good time triallists? Who are? Contador and?

Second question: Tell me who were the three bests GC guys on the TTs of the last Tour de France. Wiggins, Froome and...

Now tell me who were the three, four and five bests climbers of the 2010 Tour de France. I'll give u the answer: Contador, Andy, Samuel, Menchov and Van Den Broeck.
Not Gesink in the Top5 of his speciality. On the other hand Van Garderen was the third best GT guy in the TT of the last TDF. I dont have more questions

 

[Jason_Mercier]

That's true, nibali is neither but that doesn't mean van garderen is better.

He couldn't even follow the sky train.

And what happened in La Toussuire, Bagneres de Luchon and Peyragudes stages?

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Why people underrate TJ? In La Toussouire stage he could have stayed in the favourites group but he worked for Evans. In Bagneres de Luchon stage he stayed in the favourites group with Van Den Broeck or Valverde only after Wiggins, Nibali and Froome. In the Peyragudes stage he stayed with Wiggins, Froome or Nibali until the last km of the final ascent... Why people cant see that? Seems that they only remember the Belles Filles day. We are not talking about a a time triallist who cant climb nothing. The guy has very good climbing skills.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Kreuziger also had great progression a few years ago, suddenly it can stop.

We'll see if he confirm/improve it.

no he didn;t ever since turning pro his level was stuck. as a junior he was pretty much as good as he is now.

 

[theyoungest]

PLEASE. So where were the other good time triallists? Who are? Contador and?

Second question: Tell me who were the three bests GC guys on the TTs of the last Tour de France. Wiggins, Froome and...

Now tell me who were the three, four and five bests climbers of the 2010 Tour de France. I'll give u the answer: Contador, Andy, Samuel, Menchov and Van Den Broeck.
Not Gesink in the Top5 of his speciality. On the other hand Van Garderen was the third best GT guy in the TT of the last TDF. I dont have more questions

This is simply not true, as Gesink actually took time on VDB uphill, while working for Menchov... VDB was better on the cobbles.

Van Garderen did seem to get stronger where others faltered, I'll give you that. But I'd be surprised if he makes the top-5 in the Tour again this year, too much climbing. Whereas Nibali easily could (if he didn't ride the Giro).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

im still sure Gesink has a better shot than Nibali. But even for Gesink it's normally impossible to beat Contador, Froome or andy

 

[SafeBet]

I don't think it'll ever happen, but under special circumstances he might have a shot.



Special circumstances = OP 2.0

 

[Jason_Mercier]

This is simply not true, as Gesink actually took time on VDB uphill, while working for Menchov... VDB was better on the cobbles.

Van Garderen did seem to get stronger where others faltered, I'll give you that. But I'd be surprised if he makes the top-5 in the Tour again this year, too much climbing. Whereas Nibali easily could (if he didn't ride the Giro).

Of course Nibali easily could. Today Nibali is better rider than Van Garderen but the american has more potential IMO. I think Tejay can do a Top5 but i dont see him in the podium. I have no doubts that he will be one of the best eight climbers of the race. I only see Contador, Froome, Van Den Broeck, Pinot, Rolland, Valverde and Purito ahead him in the mountain. And with the 60 kms of ITT this is enough to get a Top5.

 

[cineteq]

Of course Nibali easily could. Today Nibali is better rider than Van Garderen but the american has more potential IMO.

If he fixes his brain, yes.

 

[movingtarget]

From what we have seen so far, Nibali cannot win the Tour nor can Gesink and VDB simply because there is three or four riders ahead of them maybe more if Valverde and Rodriguez can repeat their Vuelta form which is no sure thing. Froome, Wiggins and Contador are superior at the moment then you also have Evans and Ryder plus some of the younger riders who are behind Nibali but not by much. I think Nibali attacks often at the wrong time. If he improves his tactics and his climbing he will have a much better chance. At the same I would say that Nibali, Ryder and Rodriguez showed the most improvement amongst the GC riders last year with TJVG as the most improved younger rider.