Will Nibali ever win the Tour?

[Dazed and Confused]

NIbali can win the Tour, but he needs a bit more than average luck.

 

[Pentacycle]

NIbali can win the Tour, but he needs a bit more than average luck.

If that's his only shot at winning the Tour, then it's probably the same for 10 or more other riders, who can win the Tour with a lot of luck.

It makes more sense to estimate the chance of a 'lucky' rider to win the Tour. 9/10 times the strongest, or at least one of the clear favourites, wins.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

If that's his only shot at winning the Tour, then it's probably the same for 10 or more other riders, who can win the Tour with a lot of luck.

It makes more sense to estimate the chance of a 'lucky' rider to win the Tour. 9/10 times the strongest, or at least one of the clear favourites, wins.

yep, which is why this particular poll will be very predictable.

 

[shades1]

no chance unless he improves drastically . his mountain attacks are short and sporadic looking at last years TDF . sky had no problem whatsoever reeling him back in .

 

[Alphabet]

no chance unless he improves drastically . his mountain attacks are short and sporadic looking at last years TDF . sky had no problem whatsoever reeling him back in .

Sky had no problem whatsoever reeling anybody back in, to be fair.

 

[greenedge]

Let's wait before Tejay gets more results than 5th in the Tour. Gesink got 5th in the Tour at that age as well, I don't think anyone considers him a potential Tour winner either.

If he won the Giro this year i think he would immediately be elevated into that position.

 

[greenedge]

Of course Nibali easily could. Today Nibali is better rider than Van Garderen but the american has more potential IMO. I think Tejay can do a Top5 but i dont see him in the podium. I have no doubts that he will be one of the best eight climbers of the race. I only see Contador, Froome, Van Den Broeck, Pinot, Rolland, Valverde and Purito ahead him in the mountain. And with the 60 kms of ITT this is enough to get a Top5.

Evans, Andy, even riders like Zubeldia will be better climbers. Voeckler would also be a better climber.

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Evans? Evans is not an option anymore. Andy? First the guy has to finish the races Zubeldia? LOL. Voeckler? Of course if we see the Voeckler of 2011... But i dont see that. The UCI has told to Europcar.

 

[airstream]

Evans? Evans is not an option anymore. Andy? First the guy has to finish the races Zubeldia? LOL. Voeckler? Of course if we see the Voeckler of 2011... But i dont see that. The UCI has told to Europcar.

What told? That Voecker doesn't suit you GT understanding?

 

[Jason_Mercier]

Told them to relax their performances because werent credible. In 2011.

 

[airstream]

Told them to relax their performances because werent credible. In 2011.

Vockler is a great climber actually. He showed that in 2004 yet. He is just a bright example of how widely gifted one can be, one should focus on the things which match him better. Voeckler of 2011 is a sensation, but not a miracle. Sometimes I feel like if Voecker works on ergonomics of his climbing technique, he will be one of the best climbers.

 

[Alphabet]

Much as I love Voeckler, I don't think he's that good, airstream. I also don't think he would have climbed anywhere near as well in 2011 if he didn't have to defend the maillot jaune. Also the Pyrenees were raced really defensively that year.

 

[airstream]

Much as I love Voeckler, I don't think he's that good, airstream. I also don't think he would have climbed anywhere near as well in 2011 if he didn't have to defend the maillot jaune. Also the Pyrenees were raced really defensively that year.

It is a subject of priorities because if he didn't have a jersey, he would have concentrated on the stages and wouldn't have fought for GC. However, there is no motivation which could make one become onе of the strongest Tour climbers. It's brilliant climbing skills.

 

[greenedge]

Voeckler won 2 stages last year/ took the KOM Jersey. That performance along with his 4th place in the 2011 TDF makes me feel as if he is a better climber for the moment.

TJVG only finished in the top 8 of 1 TDF climb this year. http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21641

Sure that could be construed as him having good endurance but the GC by that stage was practically settled. Out of those contenders Wiggins and Nibali will be doing the Giro but Wiggis will probably be back at the TDF and Evans who i still think will go well, even though i do have some doubts, Anton- who will hopefully go well on at least one climb, Andy who will probably be fine by the TDF, JROD and of course Contador. The mountain stages will also be harder this year/ hopefully not tempo ridden. Quintana will be there, maybe Gesink, Hesjedal, Mollema, Cobo... Also i think Talansky will go quite well and i hope Taaramae can.

I like TJVG but the memory of him blowing up so completely at the ToC http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=22499
and at
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21255
when he had such a big race lead of 38 or so seconds
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21250.

I definitely do think TJVG could win the TDF someday though/ like him.

 

[Swabian Lass]

No, I don't think that Nibali will win the tour. Podium, maybe, but win? No.

His TT has improved, but not enough so he can't do a Wiggins or Evans and he'll always be behind Contador and Andy Schleck (assuming he can be bothered) on the climbs.

I wish it would happen, though.

 

[Swabian Lass]

Much as I love Voeckler, I don't think he's that good, airstream. I also don't think he would have climbed anywhere near as well in 2011 if he didn't have to defend the maillot jaune. Also the Pyrenees were raced really defensively that year.

Agreed. I love to watch Voeckler, but he's not a great climber. To be fair, not many riders are.

 

[cineteq]

No, I don't think that Nibali will win the tour. Podium, maybe, but win? No.

He was 3rd last year, where were you?

 

[Swabian Lass]

In France, watching actually, where were you?

Contador wasn't there last year. Put Contador into the mix and everyone moves down a step.

 

[cineteq]

In France, watching actually, where were you?

Contador wasn't there last year. Put Contador into the mix and everyone moves down a step.

Contador (2012 Vuelta) would have bumped one of the 2 Sky riders out of the podium for sure, if not both. Nibali, at worse, would have kept his place. That's is to say, math doesn't work like that in cycling, or life.

 

[theyoungest]

Vockler is a great climber actually. He showed that in 2004 yet. He is just a bright example of how widely gifted one can be, one should focus on the things which match him better. Voeckler of 2011 is a sensation, but not a miracle. Sometimes I feel like if Voecker works on ergonomics of his climbing technique, he will be one of the best climbers.

Voeckler is a puncheur, not a climber. Much like Di Luca is. It was purely the motivation of the yellow jersey that turned him into a climber (or something else did).

The way he climbs is not healthy, it was a miracle he kept it up for so long.

 

[airstream]

Voeckler is a puncheur, not a climber. Much like Di Luca is. It was purely the motivation of the yellow jersey that turned him into a climber (or something else did).

The way he climbs is not healthy, it was a miracle he kept it up for so long.

It depends on formulations solely. Let some pure climbers ride uphill as Voeckler does it. They can only dream about it. I disagree. Motivation can't present one wings if one doesn't have an engine. No one can explain all the things with such a thing like motivation.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

It depends on formulations solely. Let some pure climbers ride uphill as Voeckler does it. They can only dream about it. I disagree. Motivation can't present one wings if one doesn't have an engine. No one can explain all the things with such a thing like motivation.

Yet throughout the history of cycling we have tons of examples of people wearing a leaders jersey suddenly being able to perform far above their normal level. And if anyone can keep going more than he should with the right motivation, then it is Voeckler. You might not believe in it yourself, but you have to admit there are tons of examples of riders doing something they would never be able to normally, just because they had the right motivation.

 

[airstream]

Yet throughout the history of cycling we have tons of examples of people wearing a leaders jersey suddenly being able to perform far above their normal level. And if anyone can keep going more than he should with the right motivation, then it is Voeckler. You might not believe in it yourself, but you have to admit there are tons of examples of riders doing something they would never be able to normally, just because they had the right motivation.

I'm not saying about insignificance of motivation. But one thing is when a climber like Arroyo loses 2-3 minutes on any big stage because of motivation and another thing is defending a jersey like Voeckler did. IMO he had to podium in that Tour, but lack of experience play against him fatally on Alpe-d'Huez stage. I don't think you would find such examples in last 10-20 years. It was heroic, extraordinary and naturally implied not average climbing skills.

 

[Angliru]

Evans, Andy, even riders like Zubeldia will be better climbers. Voeckler would also be a better climber.

You can't be serious???????

 

[Pentacycle]

You can't be serious???????

He's no doubt better than TJVG, those mountain raids last year were more impressive than the Sky train imo.